All I agree on is point 4. But the rest are nothing short of being biased.You're speaking as though MS would not adapt and will keep doing the same old thing for the next 5 years.

You're in for a nasty surprise my friend.

As far as home consoles are concerned, Japan isn´t really relevant anymore.

1. They have no clear path:

They do have a clear path. They want an All-In-One set top-box the does everything. Which is why they were talking about doing two seperate systems. One as an all purpose set top-box and the other one for gaming, movies and social entertainment.

2. Xbox live gold:

I believe Sony will start charging user for online gaming once the PS4 is released. Micrsoft is making a small mint off of XBox Live. They are also managing their own servers. The only reasons Sony can even offer FREE online right now is because they have a 3rd party vendor handling the servers and they are using PS+ to help pay the bills. Still, they aren't really making any profit from PSN. They know this. They would rather be pulling in the kind of money XBL is making. So expect some changes once PS4 launches.

3. Lack of dedicated exclusives:

Sony has always had a lot of exclusives, but so did Microsoft this generation as well. Microsoft has already formed 2 new studios to work on exclusive games for the next XBox. What they really need to do is BUY either EA, Take-Two or Activision and one of the Japanese companies like SEGA, CapCom or SquareEnix. They really need some key exclusives in Japan for them to build up their user base there. 4. 360 2 + japan = dead on arrival

4. 360 2 + japan = dead on arrival

They have already tripled XBox 360 sales compared to the original XBox sales. If they could triple or even quadruple the sales next generation that would really help them in Japan. I usually don't even count Japan sales as Japan gamers dislikes American consoles and games so much, why even bother with their numbers?I don't think it'll be dead on arrival, it just won't sell anywhere close to the Wii U or PS4 because of the hate Japan has for Microsoft.

5. They focus too much on the competition:

Every company focus on the competition. Sony has been focusing on the XBox 360 since it launched as they continue to struggle to catch them. I don't see Sony catching the XBox 360 until after the new consoles are released.

probably better doing this for sony but right now i think microsoft will take the generation,you usually make mistakes when you have been on top,nintendo and sony could easily start charging for online services,plus is the way to go for sony because of the cash,if we believe the hype consoles are fading in japan,sony is fading full stop

how about microsoft leading with nintendo and sony scrapping for third,sounds good for the console wars

No.  The reason why msft has done so well is that overall, the entire company has been very healthy, they just have had a lot more money to work with than the other two, but this is starting to change if you're talking about market shar which soon translates into weakening finances, which gives the competitors the opportunity to take more share away. and sorry but msft's use can't do the apple thing of thriving without a signicant market share.  It's no Apple.  

If and when customers start moving to apple computers or any other msft alternative, then the company will weaken.  You wouldn't have said the same thing about Sony in 1990 either bc they were still selling a lot of Walkmans then, but look at what declining marketshare has done to the former king of electronics.

You know, thats where the problem on your premise is.

Microsoft cant win the console race because they cant suceed in Japan. At best they get what they did this gen, wich is a market split in half. And to do that, they had to launch a year earlier. Its dificult to imagine they can pull off anything more than what they did this gen.

They will never be clear winners without breaking the nut that is Japan or somehow dramatically turn the tables in europe (wich is impossible unless they start sponsoring the champions league aswell).

The counter-argument is that the Wii had 100 million units sold this generation... Its very unlike that you're going to see the WiiU sell that many units, meaning many of them are probably going to go to either Sony or Microsoft.

Japan is progressively ever more a handheld console market.   If MS wins NA (very likely) and Europe (very possible) then even if they don't win in Japan they can still be first overall.       I expect overall console sales to be down across the board as more people goto tablets and other alternatives (Ouya, Steambox).

Unless a console completely dominates in Japan (which I don't see happening for either WiiU or PS4) they won't be crowning the winner.

I dont consider them getting europe as very possible. The playstation is part of the most popular sports competition in europe. Its socially more acceptable because of that. The Xbox is still seen as a more nerdy games console. Theres also other effects like the playstation having free internet play and Microsoft beeing paid. That is a big deal for europeans, we dont like getting robbed.

If the Playstation is priced at same or below, and launches at roughly the same time, i dont see how Microsoft can claim europe. We shall see. Its certainly not as one sided as Japan though.