I know this goes against conventional wisdom, but I don't necessarily think Vita has to have a huge year in 2013. Improvement, yes, especially with a price cut, but the best Vita software might still show up in 2014.
The reason I say this is because of Vita's biggest problem in Japan: the PSP. The support from developers up to this point has been amazing and it's still continuing. Quality games are still being released. Seriously, the PSP sections on sites like Siliconera always have more news than the Vita sections. What if games like Sword Art Online: Infinity Moment were being made for Vita instead?
Sony has to switch these developers over to the Vita. Perhaps they already have, who knows? Until that time, if you like quirky Japanese games, the PSP is still the system to own between the two.
The underlying problem, of course, is that Sony has no first party games that are huge in Japan. They really need to change that, even if it means buying up an existing studio and IP. I know things work a bit differently in Japan, with more "working partnerships", but it's an issue they need to address.
I think we also need to remember what a single major IP can accomplish in Japan. Landing something huge could change the Vita's fortunes overnight, literally. I don't think anyone will ever forget what MonHon did for the PSP.
So, yeah, next year is important for the Vita. It needs to continue to stock its library with quality titles like Soul Sacrifice and God Eater. The price cut is absolutely crucial. However, I still think 2014 could be a much bigger year. Sony has a lot of work to do and I'm not sure we'll see the fruits of that labor in under a year's time.