Before I get started, let me make something clear: I'm an idiot when it comes to computers. Therefore, what I'm saying might be utter nonsense. If it is, please alert me of my stupidity in a kindly fashion.

Now for an idea I had.

Historically speaking, console technology has progressed at a somewhat predictable pace, especially since the 90's. The following is a chart of the big four console manufacturers' systems since the Atari era by the amount of RAM.

There are several things to note. First of all, the biggest leap forward ever was from the NES to SNES, as reflected in the SNES's much higher higher launch price. Second, we can see that although the GameCube to Wii jump is definately the smallest, Sega's jump from Master system to Genesis and from Saturn to Dreamcast were fairly modest. In general though, there are patterns. Nintendo put less and less emphasis on tech from the SNES to the Wii, with the Wii U being a reversal of the trend. Sega is inconsistent, but Sony multiplies their system's power about 12-fold a generation, while Microsoft has had a single 8-fold increase.

If Microsoft were content to reenact history, they could multiply their next system's power by the same amount again for a total of about 4GB. Considering the sucess of the 360, there's little reason for them not to do so. As for the PS4, a 12-fol increase would end up at 6 GB. However, unless they wanted to do something complicated, Sony would pick either 4 GB o 8 GB. Considering how their competition would make 2/4 GB the standard, it is unlikely they would want to push it up to 8 GB.

So yeah, based on overly simple math and data from Wikipedia, I've predicted the RAM of futuristic hardware. Any thoughts?

well can you really count the 2GB ram on Wii?

As 1GB is dedicated to OS. Perhaps this will change in the future? Dont know lol.

My guess is somewhere between 2g-4gb. Anything more I don't think is required ATM for a dedicated gaming machine.

I would be more surprised if they had less than 4gb than if they had 8gb

I'm assuming at least some of the 360's and PS3's RAM is devoted to their operating systems and whatnot. And all things considered, I'd be surprised if the 720 and PS4 didn't focus as much on non-gaming specific functions at least as much as the Wii U.

well if we factor in OS etc.. I thing 4gb is probably good number.

We can't infer anything this way. You could just as easily argue that because the PS2 had 11 times more memory and the PS3 had 13 times more memory that the PS4 will have 15 times more memory and therefore the PS4 will have 8GB.

I hope they use SDD instead of HDD. Chances of this happening you say? probably pretty low : (

While I won't comment on all those calculations you went through, I also think 4GB could very well be the number they aim for. My current gaming machine has 8GB RAM and even that seems overkill on most games I play (although I'm probably a bit spoiled with a solid state hard drive, so I can't really tell if my RAM affects loading times much).

I'm probably in the minority camp where I'm not too worried about the specs of the next-gen consoles, but I would like them to LOOK much cooler than they did in the current gen. I always hate how all the fake concept pics of upcoming consoles end up looking so much better than the real thing :P

i agree with the OP... the OS in the next gen will use lots of RAM, i doubt it will use 1GB like the Wii U but will be consider huge against the OS we use today in the HD twins.
Also people keep putting RAM and Graphics RAM together... hope Sony will keep them separated with proper GDDR for the GPU... GDDR is miles faster then normal DDR... if the size is right, its alot better for them to be separated.

so the answer to "Why the PS4 and Nextbox will have 4gb of ram" is basically... Because you say so.

You have no idea what Sony and MS are planning, and im sure that all 'rumors' leaked so far are pure speculation