Does the Wii U have a DX11 equivalent?...or is it a DX10?

I guess we can expect the next Xbox and PS4 to have DX11 and its equivalent, respectively.

Gosh, I just knew this thread would turn into a techie-debate that no-one but a handful of people will be able to follow within 2 pages. xD

Its based on the AMD 7000 series and is DX 11 capable. I would be a shock if it wasn't considering the last GPU's that didn't support DX 11 came out in 2009 :)

1. 1080p resolution displays @ 60 hz

Thanks to that TV res limit, we can expect PS4/Nextbox to max out on resolution and put more power elsewhere. Better A.I., more particles, more polygons, AA, etc. Spitting out full HD won't tax the system so the real effort will be in all the other visual splender.

2. Gaming optimized hardware and software

This has always been the case with consoles. Each generation has seen a huge leap in hardware power even though it's optimized.

3. Game budgets

This one will be interesting. Epic recently said that game budget will double for next gen. I'm not sure if I believe that. If companies are smart they will build HD libraries of resources early on. This will be costly up front but will drastically cut down the time and money needed to make games later. Why model and texture a tree eight times for eight games when you could model it photo-realisticly the first time and scale it as needed later? If publishers are smart they will make sure their developers share resources. Why pay for eight devs to model eight trees for two separate games if they are using the same engine? If you have your devs dump all their resources into one big shared library than all your devs won't have to reinvent the wheel each time they makes a new game.

4. Hardware cost

Moore's Law says that every two years technology doubles. When the Nextbox and PS4 hit technology will be about four times the power but at the same cost as when the PS360 launched. For example in 2007 the original iPhone had a 620 MHz CPU and the new 2012 iPhone 5 has a 1.3 GHz Dual Core CPU. In 2007 it cost $600 for the 8gb model and today the iPhone 5 costs 650 for the 16gb model. Inflation is also a factor. The point is that technology costs stay the same, but the power doubles every two years or so. The Nextbox and PS4 will benefit from this and release very powerful machines at about the same cost as last generation. Although I don't expect Sony to price as high as they did last time.

Talking about DX11 and DX12 in consoles is not relevant I think. Maybe for the xBox(initially) but not for any Nintendo or Playstation console. Remember that DX11 and OpenGL 4.whatever are APIs. The trick with consoles is that devs can and do ignore/bypass these and go straight to the hardware.
Or am I wrong?

I don't think devs will aimed for 1080p (with the exception of first party tittles), most devs will prefer to put all of those resources into making the game more realistic (a.k.a better graphics) rather than pure resolution and making those games as smooth as possible. 

I really can't imagine most games being 1080p @60fps, so I believe the standard for pretty much ALL games will be 720p @60fps. Some games will push full HD but most of those games will stay at 30fps.

If you mean on par with high-end gaming PCs, it's simply not feasible and is not going to happen.  Regarding hitting a graphics wall, again, not going to happen.  It just takes too much time/money to develop on that principle and until there is a faster/more efficient way of doing that we won't be playing games in real time that look like the CG found in movies.

I've said it before and I'll say it again:  The next gen will be about more than just "more powerful hardware":

Nintendo:  Tablet controller dynamic

Microsoft:  Multimedia entertainment hub

Sony:  ???

So, what you're saying is that Wii U will get GOOD ports even in 3-4 years time ;) just wanted to stir things up, sorry :p

I agree with about everything in the OP, and I'm not surprised.

Sony probably won't get DX11.1 features, it's Win8 exclusive.

I'm not convinced perf/watt will be much better, because it will be 28nm at best compared to 40nm (so at best 50% savings, more like 30-40%). Even 80W power use would be unacceptable, because the PS3 at launch was hot/loud/bulky and only consumed 130W under load including CPU and storage. Also there will not be mid-cycle die shrinks or not as many because 22nm is basically end of the line for everyone except Intel.

The next set of GPUs will not be more efficient, since they are also on 28nm and the architecture for both is pretty close to optimal/general-purpose right now.

To your point 1 - Resolution and frame rate bumps are most taxing. The extra effects, detail and AI usually come down to manpower and budgets, as well as hardware features available, but are not nearly as resource dependant as frame rate and resolution. Devs can choose to implement awesome AI but yet very few of these AAA "cinematic experience" games bother. Take a look at the PC where Crysis 2 AI is as retarded as on the 360...even with much more hardware resources avalable.

Point 2 - That's the thing, it really hasn't been optimized.  Every gen had more powerful hardware but the dev tools were piss poor. Only recently have the dev tools become more streamlined and game engines like Unreal 3 widely available for devs to use. Look for much more engine support form day 1 on next gen consoles as well as streamlined development tools from Microsoft and Sony... 

Point 4 - Your cost example works only for technology in it's infancy, which is where mobile tech was in 2007. GPU's, CPU's and consoles in general use components which don't advance as quickly and definetly don't go down in cost as fast. You don't have to be a scientist of a psychic to know how much technology costs or is going to cost. If these manufacturers plan to release powerful cutting edge hardware and support for motion controls as well as tablet gaming and everything in between, the cost will be too high. Look at Nintendo... They are apparently losing money on the WiiU, which would be the first time ever they are losing money on a home console. And it's retailing for as high as $350 and it's specs sure aren't cutting edge. Ps4 and Xbox 720 will be able to 1up WiiU in terms of hardwre next year and deliver a more advance product, but to the extent where they have to subsidize 800 dollar machines for 400 dollars at retail. Sony can't afford to do that and Microsoft doesn't have to...