| kain_kusanagi said: 1. 1080p resolution displays @ 60 hz Thanks to that TV res limit, we can expect PS4/Nextbox to max out on resolution and put more power elsewhere. Better A.I., more particles, more polygons, AA, etc. Spitting out full HD won't tax the system so the real effort will be in all the other visual splender. 2. Gaming optimized hardware and software This has always been the case with consoles. Each generation has seen a huge leap in hardware power even though it's optimized. 3. Game budgets This one will be interesting. Epic recently said that game budget will double for next gen. I'm not sure if I believe that. If companies are smart they will build HD libraries of resources early on. This will be costly up front but will drastically cut down the time and money needed to make games later. Why model and texture a tree eight times for eight games when you could model it photo-realisticly the first time and scale it as needed later? If publishers are smart they will make sure their developers share resources. Why pay for eight devs to model eight trees for two separate games if they are using the same engine? If you have your devs dump all their resources into one big shared library than all your devs won't have to reinvent the wheel each time they makes a new game. 4. Hardware cost Moore's Law says that every two years technology doubles. When the Nextbox and PS4 hit technology will be about four times the power but at the same cost as when the PS360 launched. For example in 2007 the original iPhone had a 620 MHz CPU and the new 2012 iPhone 5 has a 1.3 GHz Dual Core CPU. In 2007 it cost $600 for the 8gb model and today the iPhone 5 costs 650 for the 16gb model. Inflation is also a factor. The point is that technology costs stay the same, but the power doubles every two years or so. The Nextbox and PS4 will benefit from this and release very powerful machines at about the same cost as last generation. Although I don't expect Sony to price as high as they did last time. |
To your point 1 - Resolution and frame rate bumps are most taxing. The extra effects, detail and AI usually come down to manpower and budgets, as well as hardware features available, but are not nearly as resource dependant as frame rate and resolution. Devs can choose to implement awesome AI but yet very few of these AAA "cinematic experience" games bother. Take a look at the PC where Crysis 2 AI is as retarded as on the 360...even with much more hardware resources avalable.
Point 2 - That's the thing, it really hasn't been optimized. Every gen had more powerful hardware but the dev tools were piss poor. Only recently have the dev tools become more streamlined and game engines like Unreal 3 widely available for devs to use. Look for much more engine support form day 1 on next gen consoles as well as streamlined development tools from Microsoft and Sony...
Point 4 - Your cost example works only for technology in it's infancy, which is where mobile tech was in 2007. GPU's, CPU's and consoles in general use components which don't advance as quickly and definetly don't go down in cost as fast. You don't have to be a scientist of a psychic to know how much technology costs or is going to cost. If these manufacturers plan to release powerful cutting edge hardware and support for motion controls as well as tablet gaming and everything in between, the cost will be too high. Look at Nintendo... They are apparently losing money on the WiiU, which would be the first time ever they are losing money on a home console. And it's retailing for as high as $350 and it's specs sure aren't cutting edge. Ps4 and Xbox 720 will be able to 1up WiiU in terms of hardwre next year and deliver a more advance product, but to the extent where they have to subsidize 800 dollar machines for 400 dollars at retail. Sony can't afford to do that and Microsoft doesn't have to...
