RolStoppable said:
1) Don't throw around words like disruption so lightly, it really doesn't apply in this case. But if anything, 3D Mario would be a top-down disruption, because it needs to get crappier. Over the past years Nintendo has done their best to make the games more accessible. Bottom-up means to make the product more complicated to appeal to more sophisticated users. But anyway, this is not disruption.
2) Maybe you should give the Mario Kart series consideration. It was able to succeed where 3D Mario failed.
3) You have no proof that the SMB audience moved on to the PlayStation. Suppose they did so for all the third party games, how does the Wii fit into this? The PS3 only lost its third party exclusivity to the Xbox 360, so it would be Microsoft's console that would absorb most of Sony's market, not Nintendo's Wii. But the Wii audience consists of all new gamers in addition to the Nintendo core, right? The lapsed gamer who stopped playing video games after the 8- or 16-bit generation does not exist.
4) I can only ask again: How many more 3D Mario games need to fail before you change your mind? Your theory clings to the notion that the NSMB games had some sort of unfair advantage over the 3D Mario games that were released around the same time. What if Super Mario Bros. 3DS passes the LTD sales of Super Mario 3D Land at that point within a few weeks? Will you accept that as proof for two separate series or will you continue to insist that the 3D Mario outings are victims?
5) What is blue ocean strategy? Trying to get 3D Mario to sell as much as 2D Mario by putting the latter at a disadvantage?
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1) I don't, I just meant it very differently than the strategy you envisioned (get crappier, sell more, which is downstream). What I meant was, get better, more interesting, and get to the heights of Super Mario Bros. and Super Mario Kart. Unless you think those games are crappier, then we have a whole different paradigm for term use. One thing is certain however, they sell much more.
2) True. Maybe 3D Mario should incorporate multiplayer and get their themes more in line with SMB and Mario Kart. In other words, 3D Mario still has lots of life. If you don't appreciate the Tie Ratio argument, then consider how much better SMG did as compared to Sunshine. I withheld this far, but since the tie-ratio argument is bifacial. Sunshine 6.31M, Galaxy 9.98M. Of course we all know the popularity of the Wii helped Galaxy, and the unpopularity of the Cube did not help Sunshine, but Galaxy put the 3D Mario branch in an upward trend (bar its sequel). So, that's what I mean by upward disruption, that the 3D Mario series will sell upwards in the long run if it's handled properly.
3) SMB sold 30M in NA. The N64 bought 20M. At best, 10M didn't buy anything, and that's counting that the 20M that bought the N64 are mainstream, those who would buy Mario. We know for a fact that roughly 3M people bought starfox 64, and that was not a mainstream game. So we're certainly down to 17M at very best mainstream gamers on the N64. But a better indicator of how many mainstream gamers were on the N64 were the sales of MK64, a highly mass-appealing game with 4 player Coop. It sold 5.55M in NA. (If I did the analysis for Japan it would be even worse).
But then, trying to find where these gamers would migrate to with the PS, it would seem you may be half-right. Looking at the Playstation SW numbers, it would seem the following happened...
Since few of the playstation 1 games can be considered truly mainstream games (appealling to a mass), and those that do sold so few numbers, yet the PS system sold so many systems... It leads me to believe the following.
a) Gamers were buying less qties of more games (206 games sold 1M and above, if the vgchartz numbers are right).
b) Many of the NES gamers had moved on, especially the older ones who found new hobbies, new mario or not. (In my experience that's what mainly happened)
c) Those that didn't move on and continued playing video games played more in an individual experience on the PS (in general). Those who wanted multplayer went N64. The PS line was also tainted by the MS market, where more PC-like games started making an appearance on consoles, like TES and Fable.
d) New gamers were attracted on the Playstation, some on the N64, but mostly on a hobbyist level. The vast new mainstream went Pokemon/GB.
e) By the time of HD gaming, a large portion of the original NES userbase had been converted to a more PS experience, leading to what you have today: modern HD twin hobbyists, as well as a whole new crowd attracted by MS-style game tastes, i.e. the COD fame and most FPS games. Some came back with their families as lapse gamers and bought a Wii. In the meantime, the Nintendo portable line maintained a mainstream audience all along.
It's so much more complex than we make it out to be, but one thing is possible, you are likely right, but not for anything Nintendo did. It was just a matter of people moving on. They enjoyed their NES, had a try at the SNES, and decided they had better things to do with their lives. Some continued playing on their friends' PSs, some with their little siblings' N64, but all in all the NES era was revolved.
4) I will insist they are victims. SMB enjoyed a time of explosive popularity that I don't believe has been experienced by any experience other than Wii Sports this far. Mind you, both were bundled. I would laugh if Nintendo bundled a 3D Mario game for the WiiU. Obviously it's never gonna happen, but that would be pretty strong proof that it's possible given the right limelight. The only way I would change my mind is if, given that chance, 3D Mario fails in its endeavor. Super Mario 64 does not count because, though being a launch title, it wasn't bundled. (What a bad move that was...)
5) I was agreeing with you. 2D Mario is Blue Ocean strategy. It's less expensive to manufacture, and intends on targetting the Nintendo lapse gamer. It worked! Not only did it attract the lapse gamer, but it also attracted the new mainstream from the DS success. It was a great move. Super Mario 3D is expensive to produce, but as time goes by and with Mario not needing ultra-realistic graphics, it will become more and more feasible to produce, and offer better production value to its customers. I believe the series still has much potential, and Galaxy is only the begining. 3DLand doesn't touch Galaxy with a stick.