I'm doing my maths now...

2010 Q1+Q2 = 5.9m shipped / 2010 Q3+Q4 = 8.4m shipped / 2010 FY = 14.3m shipped
2011 Q1+Q2 = 5.5m shipped

It need to ship more than 9.1m to match 15m predicted in Q3+Q4.

2011 Q3 ~ 6.6-6.9m
2011 Q4 ~ 2.2-2.5m

If Sony is "Slightly Ahead" their prediction then they need do ship over 7 million this quarter.

55.5 + 7.0 = 62.5m

So VGC needs to show PS3 over 61 million at 31th December.

VGC need show PS3 selling at least 2.8 million in the last three week of the year... at least 930k per week.

Or we have PS3 undertracked. Or Sony is lying and will not match the 15 million predicted.

If they shipped 5.5 the 1st 2 quarters they need to ship 9.51 the next 2 quarters to ship slightly more than 15 million.  How does that make VGC need to show over 61 million at Dec 31st?  You dont know how much they planned to ship Q3 or Q4. They could have planned to ship 7 and 2.5 and they may now be looking at 7.1 and 2.5.

7 million in Q3 =  62.5m shipped at 31th Dec.

So VGC needs to show PS3 over 61m at the same period for 1.5m or less consoles on shelves.

I can't see Sony shipping more then 2.5m in Q4... look the old shipped numbers.

http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

Edit - That's the wort case with VGC showing 1.5m PS3 on shelves... if we use 1 million or less on shelves VGC needs to show 61.5m or more.

VGC has never been out by that much. 

But you dont know what Sony planned to do. They may have put in the plan. We cut price $50 in August and then Q2 we will ship X, Q3 we ship y and Q4 we ship Z. You dont know what the plan was. They could have planned to ship 5.4M 1st 2 quarters and were ahead before Q3 started.  

It's not that much .

PS3 need to sell here 2.8 million in three weeks... this week it sold 700k.

Next 1: 850k
Next 2: 950k
Next 3: 600k (last week of the year)

2.4 million in three week... VGC is just 400k under (last holidays period VGC is under more than that).

Of course... if Sony is really ""Slightly Ahead" of 15 Million Yearly Target".

What you said makes no sense to me.

They need to ship over 9.1 million in Q3 and Q4 combined... Q1 and Q2 already shipped 5.5m.

I can't see Sony shipping more than 2.5 million in Q4 (the best Q4 was 2.1m)... so they are in track to ship over 7 million this quarter (Q3).

Or Sony is not on track to match their 15 million predicition.

What I am saying is they could have planned to sell 15M.  Quarterly they may have planned 5.4M 1st 2 quarters. In reality they shipped 5.5M so according to plan they were ahead after September.  Without knowing what the plan this is just all speculation.  Sony has been wrong before with these plans.

I get it now .

The only thing odd for me is the fact Sony said nothing about their targe last year even shipping 5.9 million in first two quarters.

This time they are more confident.

Ethomaz are you ignoring my post up there? Where Sony obviously expected 2.8m~ but didn't manage it for whatever reasons.