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Forums - Sales Discussion - If the Wii never existed, what would the market look like?

NeoRatt said:
Nintendo NextGen sales would have tanked... About 8 Million people who never bought a console would still have never bought a console... And the world would continue to turn without threat of your grandmother kicking your butt at WiiSports...


 Quoted for truth!!!!!!!!!



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the hypothetical that this thread is posing really needs to be more thoroughly supported, as it only applies to the Wii, even if the Wii hadn't been introduced, I think it would have meant a dedication to the handheld console market of the DSlite and we would have seen some HUGE advancements in that area.



Seppukuties is like LBP Lite, on crack. Play it already!

Currently wrapped up in: Half Life, Portal, and User Created Source Mods
Games I want: (Wii)Mario Kart, Okami, Bully, Conduit,  No More Heroes 2 (GC) Eternal Darkness, Killer7, (PS2) Ico, God of War1&2, Legacy of Kain: SR2&Defiance


My Prediction: Wii will be achieve 48% market share by the end of 2008, and will achieve 50% by the end of june of 09. Prediction Failed.

<- Click to see more of her

 

Without Nintendo and the Wii/DS the industry would be in a death spiral



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

If the Wii didn't exist I would just only use PC because it is superior to the 360 and PS3. Only reason why I have a Wii is because it's a different type of gaming.



PC Gamer

I received the wii in December 2006... (Christmas present from wife).

If hadn't existed, wouldn't have wanted a new console because of the price (too expensive for PS3). (and would continue to play mostly PS2, some gamecube and other systems).

Would of probably received a PS3 in December 2007... assuming the price cuts still existed. If there were no price cuts on the PS3 then probably not... I am happy with the wii, so it's not likely will be needing another console anytime soon. I have a PC for when graphics matter more, etc...



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yes, this is assuming that Nintendo stopped making consoles after the Gamecube, and assuming they didn't go 3rd party like Sega.



I didn't own one of the last gen systems since I was a broke student, in fact I didn't think I would ever own a console again. Wii brought me back to consoles, so I guess I'd still be a PC junkie if the Wii never existed.



The only teeth strong enough to eat other teeth.

I don't think the immediate situation would be that much different. The sales of the 360 and PS3 would probably be notably higher, but not by more than a third. The 360 is already starting to make a profit, and even the PS3 looks a lot more likely to reach 30M+ units than a few months ago.

What would be different is how things start developing towards the end of 2008 and in 2009. The Wii has the potential to far surpass the userbase of any console before it, and with its low development costs offer the kind of innovation in games nobody would have had the balls for in earlier generations.

The other consoles don't have anywhere near the same potential in this regard, due to the huge costs of developing HD graphics, and much more expensive dev kits. The percentage of all games that are FPSs would also be even greater, something I have a very hard time imagining.

We'd be getting more of what we're getting now, now less, but certainly no more. Not the worst case scenario for a console generation by any means. With the Wii we have the potential for so much more, and it's starting to look like the excellent first year was only the beginning.



Hm... would there have been another Nintendo console? :)
I wouldn't have bought a new console neither X360 och PS3 have enough games off my liken (I don't like shooters nor spending yonks of money on gaming)



Predictions for December 31st 2008:
Wii 38,000,000
DS 84,500,000
PS3 17,000,000
PSP 41,000,000
X360 23,000,000

Profcrab said:
I think the only thing that could safely be said is that if the Wii didn't exist, the PS3 would be selling an awful lot better in Japan. Outside of Japan, I don't know how different it would be.

 I disagree, I think they'd mostly stick with the DS and PSP, maybe the PS2 would have an even longer lifespan.