RolStoppable said: Shane said: Anyone who honestly believes PS3 will sell 20-30 million units, raise your hand. Hopefully we'll get fewer hands than those who believe Wii will sell 100 million units.  I honestly believe that the PS3 ends up in the 10-20 million range. Wii will definitely surpass the 100 million mark. @OriGin We'll see how you think about that 1 year from now.

I agree with RolStoppable.  I would be far more shocked if the PS3 breaks 30 million than if the Wii breaks 120 million.

HappySqurriel said: The poor performance of the N64 and Gamecube after launch was primarily caused by Nintendo's inability to sell consoles in Japan and attract exclusive support from Japaneese developers. The main reason the N64 didn't take off in Japan was that companies like Namco, Bandai, Square, Enix, Capcom, and Konami all decided to focus support on the Playstation based on the hubris of Yamauchi; people who blame cartridges for the N64's failings have a very poor understanding on why developers abandoned Nintendo. Iwata (since taking control of Nintendo in 2002) has spent the past several years mending fences with publishers around the world and has focused on ensuring that subsidiaries of Nintendo are run by people who know what they're doing (Reggie). As a result of Iwata's efforts every major publisher released games for the Gamecube. Iwata is very unique across the entire gaming industry as he is the only former game developer who is in charge of a large videogame publisher; if you look at other publishers they tend to be run by laywers or marketing drones who often are from the Movie and Music industries. His unique perspective is the reason why Nintendo is moving in a different direction than everyone else, and is probably the reason they have been so successful.

Cartriges aren't the reason for losing the 3rd parties, but they are the reason why Nintendo couldn't get them back. Like Iwata said when GC was released, that earlier they had the way of thinking that Nintendo invests for the playground for market, what 3rd parties come to take benefit of. Nintendo gained 3rd party support and it did not look bad, when GC was released, but since PS2 had so big lead, 3rd parties lost their interest for Cube.

Kwaad said: robjoh said: @Kwaad why does it seems that as fast as you arrive to any the thread goes OT? Come on try to behave. Come with some godd argument why something will happen instead of just writing with caps and destroying the discussion. I asked before if it isn't a big difference between N64 and Wii because I belive N64 never sold really well in Japan, is that false? Shams stated some other things that was the reason for the failure for N64 can you state why those faults are in the Wii too?  I'm talking about the amazing launch sales. Nintendo seems to do wonders with their launches. However as the 1st party games die down over the next 3 years, the consoles do the same thing. (For some reason handhelds dont die down, the same old games keep selling, and selling, and selling, and selling, and selling. Kinda strange)

So did I, as far as I know the launch for N64 and GameCube in Japan was really bad, Nintendo haven't had a good selling home consol in Japan since SNES.

• N64 after 20 weeks were at 1,27 millions
• GC after 20 weeks were at 1,16 millions
• Wii after 20 weeks is at 2,16 millions.

The only consol I could find that has started as fast as Wii is PS2 which were at 2,62 millions after 20 weeks.

So for me to say that it is only Nintendo that start as usual starts fast is a little bit wrong.

steverhcp02 said: the worst part about this is there are only 2 reasons people say the PS3 is a failure. #1 The wii has takent the world by storm #2 The PS2 took the world by storm This is getting terribly old and becoming a terrible diluted argument with nothing substantial being said.  You dont fail until you get the test back, Sony has built the PS3 with more of a future impact than we have ever seen, no one should even bother claiming failure until we see what happens with Home and Blu-Ray the two things that sony has built their strategy on. This is like saying Lebron James is a failure or Dwyane Wade is a failure because they didnt do what Michael Jordan did.  people, the Wii and the PS2 may go down as the most remarkably selling systems ever, to hold the PS3 or 360 to those standards and shout failure is absurd.  Sony is going in a new direction and we wont even begin to have an understanding of whether or not its going to be prosperous for another 6 month, theyre banking on two unproven things: BD and Home.  Why dont we wait until we see what happens with those things before we start throwing out victory crowns after 5 months.

I would just like to add that PS2 is still taking the world by storm..6 years later...I think its safe to say the Wii will not have a similar lifespan.

I s it me or the "Sony Doom" is getting out of hand? All you hear is there is now way they thought the PS3 was going to sell this bad....not why is the PS2 still sell at #1. Also the people I know that own a PS2 do want a PS3 the price is a concern but for the most part they are saving up for it so when the sequels to the games they loved on PS2 come to PS3 .

Nintendo machinces Launch well look at the Game cube comfortably in 2nd place then continualy being out sold by X-box. the Wii must demonstrate some staying power before it can be compared to PS2(a bar that might be set too high) 

NorthStar said: steverhcp02 said: the worst part about this is there are only 2 reasons people say the PS3 is a failure. #1 The wii has takent the world by storm #2 The PS2 took the world by storm This is getting terribly old and becoming a terrible diluted argument with nothing substantial being said.  You dont fail until you get the test back, Sony has built the PS3 with more of a future impact than we have ever seen, no one should even bother claiming failure until we see what happens with Home and Blu-Ray the two things that sony has built their strategy on. This is like saying Lebron James is a failure or Dwyane Wade is a failure because they didnt do what Michael Jordan did.  people, the Wii and the PS2 may go down as the most remarkably selling systems ever, to hold the PS3 or 360 to those standards and shout failure is absurd.  Sony is going in a new direction and we wont even begin to have an understanding of whether or not its going to be prosperous for another 6 month, theyre banking on two unproven things: BD and Home.  Why dont we wait until we see what happens with those things before we start throwing out victory crowns after 5 months. I would just like to add that PS2 is still taking the world by storm..6 years later...I think its safe to say the Wii will not have a similar lifespan. I s it me or the "Sony Doom" is getting out of hand? All you hear is there is now way they thought the PS3 was going to sell this bad....not why is the PS2 still sell at #1. Also the people I know that own a PS2 do want a PS3 the price is a concern but for the most part they are saving up for it so when the sequels to the games they loved on PS2 come to PS3 . Nintendo machinces Launch well look at the Game cube comfortably in 2nd place then continualy being out sold by X-box. the Wii must demonstrate some staying power before it can be compared to PS2(a bar that might be set too high)

Correction:

The GC and N64 had fantastic first and second months BUT were being outsold by the competition by Month 3. The Wii is outselling tHE competition 5 months in. The GC's first january was 61k.

the N64 and GC never were in first place and the GC never outsold the PS2.

 

The N64 and the GC flopped in Japan.  The PS3 is tracking along side the Dreamcast, Saturn, and the Gamecube in Japan in both overall sales and weekly sales. The PS1 had a lower LTD than the PS3 in Japan but was outselling 4:1 in the same week and gaining fast on the total. The PS3 is not gonna gain traction against the 360 in the US and after the first 2 years Third party support starts to cement in terms of commitment and at the rate the PS3 is going it isn't going to getthe lions share.

bdbdbd said: HappySqurriel said: The poor performance of the N64 and Gamecube after launch was primarily caused by Nintendo's inability to sell consoles in Japan and attract exclusive support from Japaneese developers. The main reason the N64 didn't take off in Japan was that companies like Namco, Bandai, Square, Enix, Capcom, and Konami all decided to focus support on the Playstation based on the hubris of Yamauchi; people who blame cartridges for the N64's failings have a very poor understanding on why developers abandoned Nintendo. Iwata (since taking control of Nintendo in 2002) has spent the past several years mending fences with publishers around the world and has focused on ensuring that subsidiaries of Nintendo are run by people who know what they're doing (Reggie). As a result of Iwata's efforts every major publisher released games for the Gamecube. Iwata is very unique across the entire gaming industry as he is the only former game developer who is in charge of a large videogame publisher; if you look at other publishers they tend to be run by laywers or marketing drones who often are from the Movie and Music industries. His unique perspective is the reason why Nintendo is moving in a different direction than everyone else, and is probably the reason they have been so successful.   Cartriges aren't the reason for losing the 3rd parties, but they are the reason why Nintendo couldn't get them back. Like Iwata said when GC was released, that earlier they had the way of thinking that Nintendo invests for the playground for market, what 3rd parties come to take benefit of. Nintendo gained 3rd party support and it did not look bad, when GC was released, but since PS2 had so big lead, 3rd parties lost their interest for Cube.

Actually, they were:

And something most people don't want to hear:

Poseidon said: bdbdbd said: HappySqurriel said: The poor performance of the N64 and Gamecube after launch was primarily caused by Nintendo's inability to sell consoles in Japan and attract exclusive support from Japaneese developers. The main reason the N64 didn't take off in Japan was that companies like Namco, Bandai, Square, Enix, Capcom, and Konami all decided to focus support on the Playstation based on the hubris of Yamauchi; people who blame cartridges for the N64's failings have a very poor understanding on why developers abandoned Nintendo. Iwata (since taking control of Nintendo in 2002) has spent the past several years mending fences with publishers around the world and has focused on ensuring that subsidiaries of Nintendo are run by people who know what they're doing (Reggie). As a result of Iwata's efforts every major publisher released games for the Gamecube. Iwata is very unique across the entire gaming industry as he is the only former game developer who is in charge of a large videogame publisher; if you look at other publishers they tend to be run by laywers or marketing drones who often are from the Movie and Music industries. His unique perspective is the reason why Nintendo is moving in a different direction than everyone else, and is probably the reason they have been so successful.   Cartriges aren't the reason for losing the 3rd parties, but they are the reason why Nintendo couldn't get them back. Like Iwata said when GC was released, that earlier they had the way of thinking that Nintendo invests for the playground for market, what 3rd parties come to take benefit of. Nintendo gained 3rd party support and it did not look bad, when GC was released, but since PS2 had so big lead, 3rd parties lost their interest for Cube. Actually, they were: Remember those pricy cartridges we mentioned earlier? Imagine having to continue paying for them in a time when Sega and Sony both went to CD, an immensely cheaper medium that also allowed much greater storage capacity. That's what publishers had to deal with during the entire run of the N64 (1996 through 2001). As the rest of the gaming world switched to an established format, Nintendo stuck to its proprietary-formatted guns, ensuring slightly higher prices for games and lesser quality sound for an entire generation. Count how many memorable soundtracks there were on the PlayStation. Then look at the N64. Pretty grim, eh? But it wasn't about sound, obviously. Developers wanted to use these fancy new 3D graphics to tell stories, to show players worlds that just weren't possible on the Genesis and SNES. The N64's power was fine, but the limited storage space and high price of an N64 cart prevented games like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VII from even being possible on the system. Squaresoft was once an all-Nintendo publisher, giving the company its valued Final Fantasy series exclusively. Once Square jumped ship and ran to Sony and its lovely CD format, the console war was already over. Hello cutscenes, hello CD-quality music, hello beautiful presentation. And something most people don't want to hear: But before the war had even begun, Nintendo was pissing people off. Instead of courting as many third party developers as possible, it tried to focus on a small number of hand-picked developers to keep its system afloat. Nintendo actually had the balls to call it a "dream team," basically saying to everyone else, "if you you're not part of our clique, oh well." As a result, the bountiful support Nintendo enjoyed on the SNES was drying up, and its own titles were trickling out too slow to pick up the slack.

Cartriges wasn't the ONLY reason. Forgot to put "only" to the sentence. :) Things you mentioned, are the same things Iwata was talking about. "Dream Team" worked in that way, that PSX had unbelievably shitty games in the beginning. Nintendo continued it's strategy, what started with NES and basically saved the gaming industry (at least in the US), but they didn't realize that times had changed since the NES days. When they realized, that N64 isn't selling and started to learn being more humble, it was too late and no one was interested in developing for the most expensive platform. It was the FMV:s that needed the disc space. Otherwise PSX was grafically inferior to N64. Also sound quality could have been better on N64, but it's the data capasity again. N64 could also deal with pretty heavy compressing. Basically i dont see any reason, why MGS couldn't have been done for N64. They did port RE2 for it.

Actually, if memory serves me correctly, there was another factor that played into Sony's hands, and probably killed off the N64 and Saturn before they even had a fighting chance.

Anyone remember Toshinden? When that game came out, literally every single writer involved with gaming publications gobbled up that game's graphics. They loved it! In fact, they loved it so much they forgot about why people play games in the first place: Gameplay.

The glowing reviews from Toshinden, IMHO, gave the Playstation the edge against the other consoles, because it quickly became the game to own, which by default meant buying a Playstation to play it on.

Later on in the console's cycle many gaming journalists were called for their poor reviews, because frankly the game was pretty sucky-sucky. Many of these journalists actually went on record to admit they screwed up the Toshinden review, and many reviews were re-written as a result. However, the damage was done.

If Toshinden taught me a lesson, it was:

- never underestimate the power of mass media communications

- never get on the wrong side of the media

- people trust the media and will follow the general trend that the media pushes to the masses 

- take reviews with a grain of salt

- good graphics sure look pretty, but it's gameplay that really matters for a game to be good

Is it just me, or are we witnessing something similar happening in this console generation with a certain console gaining all the praise and momentum from the media while another console attracts indifference and contempt?

NorthStar said: I would just like to add that PS2 is still taking the world by storm..6 years later...I think its safe to say the Wii will not have a similar lifespan. I s it me or the "Sony Doom" is getting out of hand? All you hear is there is now way they thought the PS3 was going to sell this bad....not why is the PS2 still sell at #1. Also the people I know that own a PS2 do want a PS3 the price is a concern but for the most part they are saving up for it so when the sequels to the games they loved on PS2 come to PS3 . Nintendo machinces Launch well look at the Game cube comfortably in 2nd place then continualy being out sold by X-box. the Wii must demonstrate some staying power before it can be compared to PS2(a bar that might be set too high)

I just love when people post without reading my posts. In japan Wii has sold almost 1 million more than N64 and the same against GC. So they have shown better results so far. 

 

EDIT:

You might want to read the source thread also:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=1433

About 6 months of sales.

Nintendo gained good ground on third parties with Cube, but what they failed to gain (and still have not gained) was two things. 1) Third party support that actually mattered. 2) Third party games that actually sold.

Not getting. Got. Along with the excessive optimism for Nintendo. I do think PS3 will do worse than PS2 and that Wii will do better than Cube, but the talk of the market flipping is going a Wii bit too far. Sony's already got the most third party support. What needs to happen is that support needs to erode, while then heading for the competition. Won't happen overnight.