Yeah I agree with the analogue argument, once u do something that works the moment you take it away or do anything less people start complaining. If the wii manages to make the predicted 100 million mark that is a huge amount of people who have experienced motion controlled games in this generation, not to mention friends and family that also get to play. So if for every wii sold a minimum of a family of 4 people (or your closest friends) play it then that’s 400 million people who have now come to expect motion controls. I’ve taken my wii to parties and to UNI and had friends over to play so i would say about 50 odd people have played my wii, if every one did this then 5 billion people would have experienced motion controls this gen (this is just an example of the max exposure the wii could make)

It’s like when camera phones came out if ur phone didn’t have a camera it wasn’t good enough, it becomes the "in" technology and all the companies follow up on it or else their left behind because the market demands camera phones. If Nintendo’s reign continues the industry will begin to demand either the same or a better experience then what’s currently being offered.

Everyone will copy nintendo.

IMHO, if the Wii wins this generation, and it's more than likely, the oher two are doomed this generation and the next one too.
I was anxious at year's start, when I saw Nintendo strategy unwind itself. This anxiety was caused by cognitive dissonance in my very self. Actually, I felt like playing a strategy RPG (say Fire Emblem) or Chess. The cognitive dissonance was caused by the fact that I knew what Nintendo was doing when they said they didn't compete with the others (mocking them, praising them so they look away while they are destroyed), but I thought that if I knew it, MS and Sony should know it too, and they couldn't be so stupid. I couldn't believe it when both Sony and MS did exactly what they were supposed to do to let Nintendo succeed, and the most amazing thing was that they were compelled to do it. Like a good Chess master, Nintendo manoeuvered them like puppets. I'm still amazed at their mastery.

Anyway, I say the other too are doomed for several reasons :
- they lose tons of money, so they may sell consoles and games, but this is not what's called succeeding
- the patents and popularity of the Wii will insure that they can't replicate what Nintendo has done for 10 years, meaning this gen and the next one
- they can't go casual/non-gamers first next gen, as they don't know how to be efficient like Nintendo does, and their current consoles prices prevent the next one from ever being in the vicinity of the Wii price at launch, for the next generation
- but the worst and last, is that the burden of differenciation is on them now.

This last one is the hardest part of them all. Follow my reasoning.
Nintendo is run by artists, the other two are run by technologists. The other two have a way harder time innovating. The only thing they know how to do is improve technology, and trying to throw it down people's throats. So, they will have a harder time even doing the same thing as Nintendo did, but the catch is that they must do BETTER! While Nintendo has years of advance on them, and is already there.
Look at their console : expensive, big, noisy, ... All this has to be reverted. They just don't know how to do that. Look at the controllers! Both of Nintendo's competitors controllers are more expensive than a Wiimote! And the Wiimote has far more technology in it! And it's more accessible.
They must differenciate themselves next gen, but how?
They have to make a console more powerful than the current one, make it more like the Wii, while dedicating lots of R&D for motion sensing. All that with a lower price. That just won't happen IMHO.

What Sony did with motion sensing, and what MS tries to do, completely miss the point.
So if they miss the point now, I have a hard time seeing them getting it later, especially as they need to get it NOW, not later. Add to that they are losing lots of money, while Nintendo enjoys hefty profits.
So that is part of my argument about both of Nintendo competitors being doomed this gen, and probably the next : they are not viable in this gen, for now, Nintendo is the only one viable right now.

I only talked about the hardware, that MS and Sony don't get, but the hardware is not enough, at all.
Now there's the software, and it's even worse. Nintendo is the best software developer in the world.
Mixed with the success of the Wii and DS, you bet that they just overshadow everything else.
But they know how to do good software, they just know what to do. That's because Nintendo is run by artists, not technologists. Technologists will search how to have more shaders, HDR, dialog trees, AI, ... while artists will try to make a good and fun game. That's why I believe no other than Nintendo could do what they pulled this gen. Because without a powerful console, teh other two couldn't do a damn thing. Especially western developers. Look at how they're at a loss on handhelds (the DS), and on the Wii. This despite the fact the Wii is more powerful than anything they had last gen.

So no, even if they try, I see no future in motion sensing on a Sony or MS console. Or they will have to admit they can't do it, and pay patents to imitate Nintendo. That means they're dead.
And if they don't over innovate Nintendo, I predict they'll be also ran next gen too.
All Nintendo has to do next gen, is refine what they did already, and improve their console's power, which they do every time, and know perfectly how to do efficiently.

I expect a big shift of positions in the list of developers if the Wii continue its success.
I thought EA would fall faster, but they reacted faster this time, not like in the NES era.
So now I don't know, but I wonder if their effort wasn't too little too late.
Capcom reacted very fast, so I recognise how smart they are. No wonder this company is so successful.
Everything now, is in the hands of the small developers. As I see it, only them can rise from the ground and pass several current big players. The only (and very hard to come by) think they need, is that spark of innovation that will skyrocket them among the best. That was part of Nintendo's plan anyway, but is a big "?".
If this happens, don't expect motion sensing to go away anytime soon.
If not, I see Nintendo going with it at least one more gen.

Its like people completely forget that the ps3 has Motion controls..

I've said this from the very beginning after first seeing a Wii in action. A combination of motion sensing, pointing, gesturing, and traditional controls will be part of every manufacturers control scheme before this generation ends...

Part of the reason is that LCD/Plasma don't work with traditional light-guns and hence the reason the gun-con with TC 4 on the PS3 uses a system similar to the Wii...

That type of control will be refined/improved over time... Gyroscopic mice have been around for a number of years on the PC platform and provide for quite accurate controls. I suspect future implementations will use Gyros, IR, and Accelerometers to provide more accurate positioning in 3D space.

Ideally, I'd love to see a controller like the 360's wireless pad that had a small "brick" in it that contained the 3D control technology. "pop" it out of the controller and put it in something more ergonomic than the wii-mote but still similar for a point and shoot type game. That would open up a world of possibilities in gaming.

That said, peripherals never do as well as included controllers. For this type of technology to succeed on the current 360 and/or the PS3, it would have to come with a phenomenal game that basically everyone wants. The price would have to be no more than any other top shelf game. Microsoft would need to encourage 3rd parties to patch games to take advantage of point and shoot technology before it gets released.... Say halo 3, COD4, and Bioshock... that'll move units...

It'll happen. Microsoft has never been an innovator. In their role as an imitator, however, they do spend quite a bit of time trying to refine and come up with a better offering to crush the innovator. Look for it soon on your 360. It's in their nature and they can't help it.

Both will improve and get controls that equal or surpass Wii, Wii will also continue to improve...

But, not everyone wants to wave around their living room so games and consoles will continue to support both.

I think there will be much more improvements in the future, but this is a relatively young area.

All I can say is change is good and there will be lots of change.

First i'd say just because you see something similar in another item doesn't mean Nintendo doesn't own the patents to the technology they use. Do you remember a little thing about a company called immersion and how MS/Sony had to payout for stealing their rumble technology? Do you perhaps wonder why Nintendo did not have to pay out? Could it possibly have been related to the fact that they use their own rumble technology?

Sony/MS will almost certainly try to jump in and copy Nintendo, without a doubt, but they are going to have to do it different. Secondly, Sony and MS are not Nintendo, so they are not likely to do it well.

Thirdly, and to an earlier point in your post, you seem to think the controller inputs are limited, umm, no, they arent. Ontop of the button combos possible, ontop of the controller/nunchuck button combos possible, the controller and the nunchuck are MOTION SENSITIVE , hold down A and move controller left - performs action X , hold down A and move controller right - performs action Y move controller right or left without holding down A, performs action Z and W , move controller very lightly, action Q is performed, move controller faster, action Q (but faster, harder, more powerful) is performed again. Many many possible combos, the controller isnt limited to some non-specific shaking 

I just thought I'd mention that I saw something about Microsoft trying to bring out a motion sensitive controller on the G4 news ticker.

lol dude thats cos its hardly ever used, its like a waste of space in the controler, all u can do is tilt and move it around in the air with both hands, far from inovative motion sensing use, it pretty much doesnt even count

Tell that to the Aftertouch feature in Heavenly Sword. Which works with actual thrown people in addition to arrows, by the way.

 Also the soul yanking in Folklore.