For alot of reasons I'll bullet point them for coinvinence and readability 

-Lack of quality exclusives: It's no secret that MSes 1st party is the weakest of the 3 and add to that the fact that they pretty much destroyed (rare), sold off (bioware) or failed to secure (epic/bungie) next gen they will be in the weakest position launch lineup wise, and even if they commision games to be made people will be skepticial if they will retain exclusivity will all the timed exclusive deals MS has done in the past 

-Reliability concerns: although it's doubtful that MS will repeat the horrible mistakes of the 360s reliability it will still have many people concerend 

-It will be stuck between the ps3, nintendos next console and ps4: Nintendos console will launch ealier and have the headstart and core games this time as well as third party support, ps3 will be selling to everyone who wants a reliable system and low price point and it will have the highest install base so devs will cater to it over the next xbox (360 will have died off or lost almost all suport it's already starting to dwindle) and ps4 will come out a little later and probably beat it in raw power, so 360 really won't have much of a market looking at it ps3 and nintendos system will both have higher install base, lower price point, more and better games, and ps4 will come out a little later with more power and probably a better launch line up (unless Sony tries to pull a double gen for ps3)

-Charging for online: alot of people were ignorant to it or thought they wouldn't care about online when they bought a 360 (just went with the one with lower prince point) or in some cases weren't aware that no1 else charged so yeah people won't be too eager to do that again, especially if Nintendo makes a respectable online service and Sony improves psn significantly before bringing it back up

so yeah I'm sure some people will buy the next xbox but I just don't see it appealing to that many people the biggest snag will be the games unless MS gets their act in gear I just don't see them selling much at all next gen, maybe even end up giving up the console buisness 

EDIT: discuss what moves MS might make and if it will improve or worsen their situation for next gen launch 

At least. Wait until the rumour of new console before dooming it?

Bad position =/= doomed, ps3 was in a bad position at launch and now it's doing the best 

There is no way you can predict what will happen to MS in the future just like you can't predict what will happen to Sony and Nintendo. Four months ago, did you think or anyone think this whole PSN debacle would happen? No. If there is one thing I've learned, you can never predict the future.  

This is an intelligence test. Don't mess it up guys.

I'm not predicting what will happen, I'm stating what we know in a organised manor, thus bad position and not is doomed 

We've yet to see how far Kinect can take MS, to this point it has been a resounding success.

^ this 3 paragraph statement is so dumb it not even funny you cant predict microsoft moves  and their  bussiness practice and i swear ms not that dumb to stop the console bussiness , so your whole thread is just dumb

Hardware sales wise, it didn't do much to push 360 or it's software my guess is it will drop after nothing super amasingly revolutionary for it is annouced at E3

there is no such thing as too early!