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Forums - Sales Discussion - Screen Digest still believes the PS3 will take the worldwide lead

Bitmap Frogs on 12 December 2007
leo-j said:
@Bitmap

I agree 130 M ps2 owners are going to regret the nexgen playstation because some xbot in the internet says it sucks.

You talk like the ps2 userbase is a demographic monolith that belongs to sony. That's Sony's official line - those 120m ps2 owners will upgrade to ps3 when it hits a price point they can afford. The problem with this line is that Sony's own dominance contradicts that statement - they did take Nintendo's userbase afterall, didn't they? Sony and you expect people to hug their ps2's until the ps3 price/quality is worth the upgrade - the problem is, the ps2 userbase has already started migrating to new gen (last gen sold 180M consoles, so far around 35M sold this gen so roughly 1/6 of the market has moved on at this point) and they aren't picking the ps3 over 360/Wii, not even at 400$.
 
edit: oh and for the record, when did I say the console itself sucks? all I am saying is that the market is not welcoming the product which a glance at this site's homepage should be telling you already.  




Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

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Sullla on 12 December 2007

You've got to hand it to the Screen Digest Group. They're literally the definition of the clueless sales analyst. Here's some more fun predictions they've made:

Market Share through 2010 (prediction made Feb. 2007)

Japan
360 - 11%
PS3 - 64%
Wii - 25%

USA
360 - 42%
PS3 - 38%
Wii - 20%

Europe/Australia
360 - 37%
PS3 - 43%
Wii - 20%

Note that at the time this prediction was made, the Wii had a 2:1 lead in Japanese hardware, and was routinely outselling the PS3 by 50k units/week.

Then in June 2007, they put out a report claiming that the generation was "too close to call": http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14384

Now we finally have a new report in which - surprise! - the PS3 still manages to outsell the Wii worldwide. I guess 14 months of sales data wasn't enough to change their initial assumptions. Seriously though, you don't want to mess around with the Screen Digest Group. These guys are hardcore. They're like the George W. Bush of sales forecasting. Once they make up their mind, they stick with it, and no amount of real-world evidence or logic will get them to change their minds. Yeehah!



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

leo-j on 12 December 2007

@bitmap

Its because of the consoles price its being "rejected". Those ps2 owners even if they transition to the X360 and Wii they will get a ps3 when its at the $299=$399 price range(the ps2 price range).



 

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HappySqurriel on 12 December 2007
Faxanadu said:
Darc Requiem said:
Faxanadu said:
fkusumot said:
Faxanadu said:
@everyone: Please start learning how to read charts. What they did is estimate year end figures and then assumed linear sales within each year, leaving out seasonal variances. This does not mean they assume the PS3 to start outselling the Wii next week but rather in 2008 in total.

From the looks of the chart it means they expect the PS3 to outsell the Wii by ~70% in 2008. I think that means they assume the PS3 is going to outsell the Wii by ~70% in 2008. I like Rolstoppable's idea of bundling it with the DS.


but over the whole year of 2008. as is known, ps3 domination will start with MGS4 and at that point wii will look outdated and stop selling for the rest of the year.


I sincerely hope that was a joke post. I mean I honestly have to question the intelligence of anyone that says the Wii will start to look dated and the PS3 will take off. The Wii has looked out dated from a graphical standpoint from the beginning. The DS has always looked graphically inferior to the PSP. The vast majority of the gaming public doesn't care about that. The sooner "hardcore" gamers and analyst realize this fact, the sooner they will stop looking like complete and utter buffoons.


No, of course I was being serious. Please refer to my posting history for a better explanation of my assumptions.

@Watchmaker. Looking at the chart again, they assume Wii and PS3 to sell about equal in 2008 (lines in 32008 almost parallel). so no outselling by 70%. 


As I see it, Wii domination began with Wii Sports when everyone used the Wiimote and realized that every other controller was outdated.

Right now the graphics in games on the XBox 360 and PS3 are drastically better than what is available for the Wii and yet it continues to outsell both systems; at the same time every PS3 exlusive game is supposed to lead to PS3 'dominance' and in reality they end up selling far worse than previous versions of the game (and the sales only look good when the game is bundled).

For 14 months I have heard that the PS3's slow sales were about to turn around very soon, yet a 40GB PS3 with a game, 2 controllers and an HDMI cable doesn't sell very well at $400.



Moongoddess256 on 12 December 2007

I don't think people caring more about HD will affect the wii.

For "hardcore gamers"- I think before the wii launched someone in Nintendo said they expected people to buy a 360/ps3 as well as the wii. I think thats what that whole "blue ocean" thing is about. The wii wasn't meant to directly compete with the 360/ps3.

I bought a wii. And then I bought a 360. Together they make me very content gaming wise. I'm sure many other Wii owners who aren't in the "casual" category have bought or will buy another console too.

And I sincerely doubt "casual" gamers are going to care much about HD either.

But why am I arguing with this article? Do these analysts really get paid to make these pathetically unfounded guesses about the industry?



[2:08:58 am] Moongoddess256: being asian makes you naturally good at ddr
[2:09:22 am] gnizmo: its a weird genetic thing
[2:09:30 am] gnizmo: goes back to hunting giant crabs in feudal Japan

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Vienna on 12 December 2007

it can be so easy for this "analysts"

can someone tell them they should sometimes visit this site ?

and can someone give them a calculator that is working ?



ClaudeLv250 on 12 December 2007

Someone really needs to make the "Wii will stop selling in the middle of 2008" crow eating fiesta thread in anticipation, because that 'argument' is getting tossed around these boards a little too much lately to let people get away with such bold and unsupported statements. For a sales site that has to be one of the worst arguments I've seen here, and yet its clung to so tightly by a lot of people for no real reason at all.



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

godf on 12 December 2007

I love how that graph has PS3 sales taking off as soon as it slips from real sales figures into 'forecasts'. All that's holding sony back is that problamatic shift from 'forecast' into reality.



Mummelmann on 12 December 2007
ClaudeLv250 said:
Someone really needs to make the "Wii will stop selling in the middle of 2008" crow eating fiesta thread in anticipation, because that 'argument' is getting tossed around these boards a little too much lately to let people get away with such bold and unsupported statements. For a sales site that has to be one of the worst arguments I've seen here, and yet its clung to so tightly by a lot of people for no real reason at all.

 There are actually very few who have that belief, but those who do are very loud about it. There are far more users who believe that the Wii will sell 500 million lifetime, which is an even stranger stance on a sales site.

Thinking that a console can do over half a billion is equally bold and unsupported, but it's okay on Vgchartz, shows just how much people here love Nintendo. I personally love this site, but these insane predictions are getting tedious now. 



breadie on 12 December 2007

maybe the analysis was funded by Sony, like SMG review... haha