Hey guys,

I want to hear your guesses when Kinect will be available and MS will produce enough to meet demand and stop the shortages.

Here is the current situation:

• BestBuy.com
  • Kinect Sensor: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: Backordered
• Toysrus.com
• • Kinect Sensor: Sold out for shipping
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out for shipping
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: Sold out for shipping
• Target.com
  • Kinect Sensor: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: Sold out
• Amazon.com
  • Kinect Sensor: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: Sold out
• Gamestop.com
  • Kinect Sensor: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: In stock
• Game.co.uk
  • Kinect Sensor: In stock
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: In stock
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: In stock
• Amazon.co.uk
  • Kinect Sensor: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: In stock
• Amazon.de
  • Kinect Sensor: Sold out (other retailer sold out soon, too.)
  • Xbox 360 250 GB with Kinect: Sold out
  • Xbox 360 4 GB with Kinect: Sold out

Checked November 14th
Checked November 21st
Checked November 29th

Do you think MS will produce enough to get a piece of that Black Friday pie? I really hope so. A successful Black Friday always leads to a good xmas season. I have my doubts though. They have to ship thousands of sensors to all these stores.

*update* Not much happened this week.

BestBuy had the 4GB bundle in stock last week, but set it on backordered this week.

Toys R us is still sold out on Kinect hardware and bundles, even though they only sell the 4GB bundle with Kinect and Joyride for $350.

Target is sold out on the sensor and the regular bundles. There are special kinect bundles available for $200 though and it comes with a not so popluar game (biggest loser).

Amazon is sold out on everything as well. No sensor and no kinect bundles. The Halo Reach bundle is sold out now, too. It was still available last week. Even the holiday bundle, which comes with Forza Motorsport 3 and Alan Wake is sold out. The regular standalone 4GB console is the only Xbox 360 console left in stock.

The situation did not change for Gamestop. The 4GB Kinect bundle is still in stock, but everything else is sold out. The 250 GB bundle changed from backordered to sold out though.

Game.co.uk received a shipment these days. This is the only major retailer where you can find the standalone Kinect sensor. Both bundles are available, too.

Last week I said amazon.co.uk must have received a big shipment, but this changed quite fast. There is no sensor available and the 250 GB bundle is out of stock again. But the next shipment should come in 2 days. So long, it is still sold out. 4GB Kinect is in stock though.

Amazon.de is still sold out on the kinect sensor. The retailer amazon links to says there are only 3 left. The Xbox 360 250 GB kinect bundle is sold out. The retailer Amazon links to has only 1 left in stock. The price is 470 € ($616 !!!). The 4GB bundle is in stock!

Well I'm counting on Black Friday to get a Christmas Kinect. My wife is gonna be pissed at me if not though, she was ready to buy the damn thing last week and I was all, no let's wait til Black Friday. 

After Walmart online sold out of their initial shipment of Kinects they got in a special order and started selling a Kinect 1 addtional game for $199.  That deal must have been selling very well because they decided to up the price and size of the bundle to $249 now.  I hate it when companies force you to buy additional stuff if you only wanted to get a Kinect for $149.

Probably near the end of December/early January when most the gift giving is done and they have time to make more. Maybe the end January at the latest?

It's gonna be difficult to find on Black friday except on the secondary market.  It looks likes 5 million by the end of the year is very possible.

I dunno, it was sold out with only ~500k units in the US. It's really up to MS to decide when to end the shortages. I'm guessing it is going to be 1-2 weeks before Christmas, or possibly every week after black friday.

Also, there're over 200 kinects on amazon.com

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias=aps&field-keywords=kinect&x=0&y=0

I also just watched 7 kinects end on ebay at 176$ including shipping. So apparently, the demand isn't as strong as it's been believed.

Which is strange, because last week, they were ending on ebay at 200-225 including shipping.

it's not by end of the year though is it? It's by end of fiscal year, right? So end of March.

its by the end of this year so till christmas.

Yep, they increased their projected forecast from 3 million to 5 million for the holidays. So the end of 2010, they are re-supplying stores on a consistent basis and they have a lofty projection for Kinect. I don't see why they would need create an artificial shortage; especially with all they have done to promote it.

Ah, I just found the news that said that. I could've sworn it was by end of march. Either way, I already said that the availability would be back by either right after black friday or two weeks before xmas.

Considering how little the markup is on ebay, I'd say there was a very good amount of stock available already. On a 180$ sale on ebay, you need to include shipping, which is going to be around 8-10$,then ebay takes a cut or like 6%,  so that's another 10$, then paypal takes a 2% cut which is another 4$ and then the listing fee is probably around 50 cents.

So, 180-10shipping-10ebay-4paypal=155.

So unless ebayers are getting these on discount, they are probably actually losing money on gas to get to the store. Ebay stores usually make a much better margin because listing is cheaper and fees are cheaper, and they sometimes have shipping deals with UPS for volume, but they also pay monthly fees to ebay and paypal/fees to CC companies.

If Ebayers can't make money, they won't be contributing to the retailer sales, which means there should be good availability sooner than later.