richardhutnik said:
I am not going to focus on the business model, and discuss whether or not it will catch on. HOWEVER, I will discuss the technology. There is going to be places where this techology is going to take off, and be of great use. On that note, if you don't think so, I would like to ask this:
In a game which is an MMO, do you think that a model where you end up paying to play, is going to be best served by having people needing to keep upgrading their computers, or one where everything is done server end?
By having this technology in place, you gain a lot in the form of reliability and standardization and convenience, while maintaining high end performance, without the need for people to upgrade their hardware. This technology also enables you to do things you can't now with current PCs. There is no reason why the technology can't evolve to completely eliminate the need for load screens. One can have it that people jump in and play. Try doing that with current technology, or client powered technology.
Anyhow, you think the current approach for delivering MMOs is superior to what OnLive does?
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No, I think the opposite. Next year, every computer sold will have graphics good enough to play any MMO or The Sims etc. on the CPU die itself (both Intel and AMD, from the lowest netbook to the fastest desktop). Why, then, would a developer bother with streaming technology? All PCs will be so good they won't need OnLive.
And from then on, each die shrink will double ALL computers' graphics power. AMD plans to put a new GPU on every one of their CPUs every year. Even the netbook CPU.
The widespread adoption and increasing speed of SSDs will reduce load times to a minimum anyway. They only existed because mechanical hard drives were slow. Load times on Gamecube and Wii games were low enough so I didn't notice, because of good programming and fast disk drive/RAM setup. That shows it can be done well client-side; I think PC developers are just lazy.
If OnLive and similar take off, there will be a whole range of competing companies, streaming platforms and hardware capabilties in the back end (they won't replace all of their 10,000 GPUs at once). So developers will have to target multiple hardware configs anyway; they may as well target end users as they always have done.
And finally, the key issue with targeting only OnLive and not end users is that no one will ever own a copy of your game. I think you underestimate how valuable having control over your copy is - losing your game at the end of the subscription is not something that will be widely accepted (I believe).