No need to keep stalking me pally, and i'm not making excuses, the truth is Nintendo has shown it has supply problems in meeting demand, so its true, if Nintendo can ship 40 odd million next year then 60 million will be reached, if not then it wont

@John Lucas: Allthough I disagree with your predictions, I must wholeheartedly admit that you got balls! And you spice up the forums, creating debates and making people think, kudos for that!
It's easier to stick to ones opinions with people like you around, and you seem to have a handfull of proteges in here allready...

Without a price cut early in the year then I reckon 50m. With one, yes maybe 60million is possible. Then again it all depends on WiiFit.

oh puhh-lease

500 million when all said & done....

I don't necessarily always agree with what John Lucas posts, but I do admire his willingness to "put his money where his mouth is" and posit his beliefs in the face of opposition.  Whether they come true or not, that alone deserves some respect.

Good job johnlucas.  I approve of this crazy thread. 

If they could make that many, they might sell. They would need to almost double their production capacity from 1.8M/month to 3.4M/month to make 40 million Wiis next year.

Well, if you are right, it would be amazing.

To that, I would add that we have NEVER, EVER seen a Wii during peak buying times having no supply issues. I would say if the supply was adequate your 20 mil. would have been done in October and we would be looking at 30 mil. for the new year.

I think the logic that john lucas uses is that the Wii moves past being simply a console. The wii could possible really move into the mainstream, more so than ever and be as common as ...lets say the DVD player. If this happens then yes 500m could be possible. I mean how many dvd players are there in the world?

Hey Ive caught the john lucas bug! yay!

Amen Brother , let the Church of John Lucas Prevail.

When i first read of your "crazy" predictions i actually thought 60 million by the end of 2008 was more likely than 20 million by this years end..... I still hold back because at heart I am a conservative fool and a non-believer, so originally pegged Wii for 18 million by this years end. (and 45 million + end of 08) but recently i have to say I was being almost as conservative as Nintendo themselves.... I still won't tout 20 million as a minimum number, but i would say that near the top of my 'probable' range (19-20.5 million)

If it manages that 20 million, then i am positive 50 million is a surety before 2009, and 60 million well within reach.
I am still sceptical as to whether Nintendo will up production in time, the recent statement that 1.8M p/month is a maximum disturbs me... I guess they are only talking about the maximum output of the current factories producing components, so that means as Nintendo doesn't produce chipsets etc in house they will have to find some company or factory capable of running their components.

Nintendo should use that time to produce Nintendo Wiis rather than Wii fit. Wii fit will not sell over 1 million within the first month in Japan.

When you are wrong again and again don't make a fucking John Lucas was WRONG thread ok.