let's start with the fact that we can't list Prologue as example of future GT5 sales

- it was the first racing game on ps3 except crappy F1 game, Ridge Racer(and those are very niche titles plus ps3 launch games) and very average Motorstorm,

Still a demo selling 12.000 copies a week (last week) with loads of new competition.

- it was budget game,

Still a demo selling 12.000 copies a week (last week) with loads of new competition.

- it had no competition for what 4-5 months before release and something like 4-6 months after launch,

Still a demo selling 12.000 copies a week (last week) with loads of new competition.

now

- past GT games success was because casual gamers,

Oh really? Pics or it didn't happen...

- there wasn't any awareness of competition (especially during psx life and early ps2 era),

Oh really? How do you know? I thought NFS games were fairly popular. In fact, I do not actually own any GT game besides GT5: Prologue. I own NFS and Midnight Club on PS2 though. HOW CAN THIS BE!?!?!?!?!??!?

- you could pretty much get either NFS, Ridge Racer or GT game in the past,

OK!! Good to know!!!

- ps3 doesn't have diversity if we're talking about audience(it's all about shooters and action games now),

PS3 doesn't have diversity????? LBP topping 3 mill., VC stretching for 1 mill. and there are more. There aren't too many, but if there is one console where diversity in games and user baser is present, it's the PS3. Maybe you have it confused with the other HD console which is ONLY about shooters and action games. BAM BAM BAM BAM!!!!!

- with exception of first Motorstorm(which sales come mostly from bundles and sequel flopped hard compared to original), last 3 NFS games, Midnight Club, Burnout Paradise and Grid nothing really sold well on ps3 if we're talking about racing title,

Yes, this is only good for GT. Racing games are still pretty much alive and GT will attract these racing game enthusiasts.

- most racing sim fans already chose their console and series to follow - that's Forza, just look at the sales of Forza 1 and 2 on simillar userbase.

Yes, they chose their console and series long before the X360 and Forza even came along. You really think 4 million for Forza 2 (with heavy bundling) or Forza 3 (lol) will be the best selling racing games this generation? Where are those 15+ million GT fans jumping ship to Forza buying Forza games like they were the second coming of Christ? Hint: THEY AREN'T! They're thinking: "Fuck Forza, I'll wait for the superior Gran Turismo"

Forza 1 sold 1mln copies, 

Forza 2 sold 4mln copies,

Forza 3 sold 2.3mln copies in first 24 weeks - more than 80% better than Forza 2 in first 24 weeks.

Only reason Forza even sold any copies is because it's the only half-decent racing game on the 360. See, I can troll the games on the console I don't own and "dislike" too!!! Thank you for showing me how to do it master waron!

- there's too much competition and people gone away from games like GT to open world and arcade racers,

GT5's demo sold 3.6 million copies... People are waiting and last week 12.000 more bought the game in huge anticipation of a game called GRAN TURISMO 5. Or do you think they buy Prologue so they feel they don't have to buy the full game?

- people are tired of waiting and already bought 360 because of Forza series or other racing games,

I'm not, I'm waiting, you know why? Because PD pisses all over Turn 10, and Turn 10, well they love it. GT will include so many features and among these are the rally and nascar licenses. Why the hell would I buy a semi-decent game from the most cocky and obnoxious development team I have ever witnessed on E3, namely Turn 10? Patience is a discipline and I'd rather wait 5 hours for quality meal (hopefully) than showing 3 turds down my throat rapidly just because I'm a little hungry.

- demo gave really bad impression of full version GT5 and Prologue showed that Polyphony is far behind developers like Turn10,

Demo? You mean the time trial demo? If you do... Well.... For me it was a good impression. 

- there will be released 5-6 high profile racing games before GT5(if it comes this year of course),

let's start with the fact that we can't list Prologue as example of future GT5 sales

- it was the first racing game on ps3 except crappy F1 game, Ridge Racer(and those are very niche titles plus ps3 launch games) and very average Motorstorm,

- it was budget game,

- it had no competition for what 4-5 months before release and something like 4-6 months after launch,

now

- past GT games success was because casual gamers,

- there wasn't any awareness of competition(especially during psx life and early ps2 era),

- you could pretty much get either NFS, Ridge Racer or GT game in the past,

- ps3 doesn't have diversity if we're talking about audience(it's all about shooters and action games now),

- with exception of first Motorstorm(which sales come mostly from bundles and sequel flopped hard compared to original), last 3 NFS games, Midnight Club, Burnout Paradise and Grid nothing really sold well on ps3 if we're talking about racing title,

- most racing sim fans already chose their console and series to follow - that's Forza, just look at the sales of Forza 1 and 2 on simillar userbase.

Forza 1 sold 1mln copies, 

Forza 2 sold 4mln copies,

Forza 3 sold 2.3mln copies in first 24 weeks - more than 80% better than Forza 2 in first 24 weeks.

- there's too much competition and people gone away from games like GT to open world and arcade racers,

- people are tired of waiting and already bought 360 because of Forza series or other racing games,

- demo gave really bad impression of full version GT5 and Prologue showed that Polyphony is far behind developers like Turn10,

- there will be released 5-6 high profile racing games before GT5(if it comes this year of course),

No there is a third camp that want GT5 to be a success but understand that success doesn't mean it having to sell in excess of 10 million or indeed outsell earlier games in the franchise. 

The interesting point comes after release if it doesn't look like hitting 10 million how half of you will say, well only 2 or 3 posters said it was going to hit 10 million, stop generalising.

I disagree with this, i think if GT5 doesn't top 10m then it will be seen as a failure considering the sales of previous GT games.  But i am fairly confident that GT5 will do 10m+, im expecting 2m+ first week and strong legs because GT is a long game with good replay value.  Add to this it will have an online mode which i am expecting to be extremely popular and people will not be selling this game.  What does that mean? Not as many used copies so more new copies sold = long legs.