PS3 alone. The PS3 has passed the 5 million mark in Japan which is more than enough to justify the development of PS3 exclusives. Games like Fist of the North Star and Yakuza 4 show that any big PS3 title makes the PS3 the best selling console in Japan (including handhelds) for a period of time.

Persona games usually only sell what games like Yakuza 4 and Fist of the North Star sold week one on PS3.

Also, the effect of making the game for 360 would be negligible at best and putting the game on a second console (without a user base to buy it in substantial numbers) might drive up the costs of the game's development a little bit.

Going by ATLUS USA figures (which can be found here: http://www.siliconera.com/2009/10/06/well-how-many-copies-did-persona-4-and-devil-survivor-sell/), Persona 4 sold like shit in North America. Only 110,000 in the fiscal period of Aug 08 to July 09. Whereas it sold 300,000 within that same period in Japan. So the western market isn't all that important for Persona.

They'd be better off releasing P5 on the PSP. It's much cheaper. They would have to sell a lot more on the PS3 or PS3/360 to recoup the investment necessary to make a HD Persona game. Also Persona 3 Portable sold about as well as the PS2 version did (which has a much larger install base than the PS3 and 360 combined in Japan).

3DS is possible so I guess is PSP 2 lol who knows it could land on the Wii

The smartest decision I can see is a Wii/PS2/PSP multi release. It allows them to resuse assets from the previous games and all three platforms can handle the same game without fans feeling it's been compromised. It allows them to put the game on two platforms that are familiar with the series and another that has potential to sell the game in all markets. 

I'm not sure about the Wii having the potential to sell a Persona game in all markets. The jury is still very much out on how well quality third-party games in general, and third-party RPGs in particular, can sell on the system in the various markets.

Here's what we know:

No quality third-party RPGs have been released for the Wii in the west.

Only one quality third-party RPG has been released for the Wii in Japan: Monster Hunter Tri. Its performance has been respectable in the absolute sense, but very lackluster compared to the performance of its PSP prequel. This can't be a very encouraging sign for Atlus vis à vis the potential sales of a Wii version of Persona 5.

Compare to the impressive sales of the hyper-niche Demon's Souls on the PS3 in the US, and of the PSP re-releases of the PS2 Personas in Japan. A PSP Persona 5 is almost guaranteed to sell well, and a PS3 Persona 5 probably would sell well enough to make a profit (especially when you factor the fat exclusivity check Sony would cut Atlus into the bargain).

A Wii P5 might sell OK. It might also sell next to nothing, at the cost of development money and Sony exclusivity money. Atlus is a fairly conservative company: my instinct is that they'll wait and see how games like Monster Hunter Tri and The Last Story do on the Wii before taking the plunge.

Because it's the only relevant data point we have, at least until MH3 is released in the west. No one really has any idea if there's a market for serious RPGs on the Wii or not. MH3's sales are not encouraging on that front, though I will of course admit that the peculiarities of the Monster Hunter series will account for some of the difference between the PSP and Wii sales.



What I meant by that was that Atlus is going to wait and see how well serious RPGs perform on the Wii before developing a Wii Persona game, not that they're going to hold off developing P5 specifically until they see how well serious RPGs perform on the Wii. My bet is that P5 is going to be a PSP or PS3 exclusive. At some later date if Wii RPG sales are good Atlus might decide to port P5 to the Wii or develop P6 for the Wii, but I really doubt P5 will be released for Wii on launch day.

I say 70% it's on PS3 or PS3+X360 and 29% it's a PSP game with remaining 1% for 3DS.

Reasons for being PS3:
- the series always came out on home consoles
- it's big enought to provide at least 250k sales and that's plenty enough for HD game which won't push technical borders
- PS3 sales in west would be much bigger than PSP sales
- easy porting to X360
- probably easy porting to PSP (just look at the huge number of games that came to PS3/X360/PSP last year)
- if they make it PS3 game they have 100% certainity it's engine will be reusable in the next 2 or 3 years which means cost reduction for developing Persona 6 or main SMT game on PS3 (or maybe even both)

Reason's for PSP version:
- it's cheap to develop
- they have P3Portable engine already running there
- there's established fanbase for Persona on PSP
But i think they would rather release Persona 2 and 4 on PSP first and sales in west would suffer badly.

Reasons for 3DS version:
- there's 99,999999999999% chance new ds will be hit
- big name starting title with no competition in RPG category could be huge
- engine made for it could be reused in a bunch of SMT/Persona games in the future

lol i rather have Demon Souls released for europe first...
Anyway i think its going to the Wii.... If not, then the PS3 ONLY.

You think Atlus has its hands on the 3DS kit already?

Qays said: Reasons for 3DS version: - there's 99,999999999999% chance new ds will be hit - big name starting title with no competition in RPG category could be huge - engine made for it could be reused in a bunch of SMT/Persona games in the future You think Atlus has its hands on the 3DS kit already?

If new DS is to be announced on E3 then i think  they should already have them. But as you can see from my percentage imho it's stil very unlikly :)