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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst predicts 127m PS3 sales

Grimes on 10 March 2010
TWRoO said:
I have to wonder what goes on in some people's minds sometimes.... it's as if they see everyone as against them even if only 1 or 2 people are arguing (perhaps wrongly, perhaps rightly)

Someone is going to have to point me to something that shows that "99% are PS3 haters" considering the PS3 fans seem to cover about 50% of the active forum community here.... and I would love to see some proof that more than a few deluded individuals thought Forza 3 would outsell GT5.

I will have to repost my earlier comments I think --->

It's called paranoia and insecurty.



Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.

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crumas2 on 11 March 2010
Hus said:

And i have seen nothing buy mega failures from most of you on here, why give any of you the benefit of the doubt ?

Many of you here backed selnor in his delusional crusade of Forza over GT.  Hell not a single one of you gave the Slim any chance of doing what it actually ended up doing.  Even these days many deny Gran Turismos sales capability, even though its pay for demo did 4.5 million.

 

I won't comment on Forza vs GT, but the reason some of us doubt the sales potential of GT is because the "demo" (prologue) is a completely functional version of the game.  I'm certain the "final" version will have more tracks, more features, etc., but for someone who wants to experience GT on the PS3, they can do it with the prologue and never bother buying the final version.  Even Sony didn't call it a demo... they called it a prologue, i.e. - an initial version of the game.

Now, this doesn't mean I won't be surprised if GT final comes out and 71% of all PS3 owners buy the thing... but I don't anticipate that happening.



theRepublic on 11 March 2010
Demotruk said:
theRepublic said:
Demotruk said:
RolStoppable said:
@Demotruk

I am in agreement with you that the fifth year won't be the PS3's peak year. My only point was that it's very likely that this year, the fourth, will be it. This would fall in line with the 360, the console with the most similar circumstances, which had its best year in 2009 (at least I think that was the case).

Well, as theprof pointed out it's more likely to have a fourth year peak by full years, since it includes November and December of 09.

But I think people are overoptimistic about 2010. So far it's up YoY on a weekly basis, but every week it's up less. GoW3 should give it momentum in March, but it's not going to carry momentum for the five month period following it's release. YoY comparisons will continue to get worse and eventually turn negative, the earlier Microsoft makes a move the moreso.

 

Edit: I look at relative YoY comparisons these days because in retrospect, if we had looked at them for Wii we would have seen the Wii's troubles coming as early as 2008.

I'm curious, what exactly do you mean by relative YoY comparisons?

Percent comparison to the same week in the previous year, rather than absolute numbers.

Doesn't that method have the same problems as just looking at the raw numbers?

For example, the PS3's late year price cut makes this year's early numbers look really good.  That would still look like that in the percent comparisons.



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Demotruk on 11 March 2010

^It's not perfect, but it shows the way that momentum is going. The PS3's numbers look good because it's had a boost in momentum this year, but it's really about how the numbers change over time. Even if YoY numbers are still high, you can see a decline ahead of time if they are continually getting lower.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

thx1139 on 11 March 2010
crumas2 said:
Hus said:

And i have seen nothing buy mega failures from most of you on here, why give any of you the benefit of the doubt ?

Many of you here backed selnor in his delusional crusade of Forza over GT.  Hell not a single one of you gave the Slim any chance of doing what it actually ended up doing.  Even these days many deny Gran Turismos sales capability, even though its pay for demo did 4.5 million.

 

I won't comment on Forza vs GT, but the reason some of us doubt the sales potential of GT is because the "demo" (prologue) is a completely functional version of the game.  I'm certain the "final" version will have more tracks, more features, etc., but for someone who wants to experience GT on the PS3, they can do it with the prologue and never bother buying the final version.  Even Sony didn't call it a demo... they called it a prologue, i.e. - an initial version of the game.

Now, this doesn't mean I won't be surprised if GT final comes out and 71% of all PS3 owners buy the thing... but I don't anticipate that happening.


I have never doubted GT5 sales potential. What I doubt is GT5 potential to move signifigant amounts of hardware that will change the dynamics of the console war.  If people are so fanatical to purchase a PS3 just for GT series then those same fanatical people already picked up a PS3 for Prologue.  You thrown in the people that are so fanatical about the PS3 they purchased it early on. Finally throw in the fact that out of the 40 million PS3s that will have already sold when GT5 arrives many who had to have GT5 were pushed over the edge to get thier PS3s for something else.  That doesnt leave a huge amount of people that want a consoles and GT5 only.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

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theRepublic on 11 March 2010
Demotruk said:
^It's not perfect, but it shows the way that momentum is going. The PS3's numbers look good because it's had a boost in momentum this year, but it's really about how the numbers change over time. Even if YoY numbers are still high, you can see a decline ahead of time if they are continually getting lower.

Interesting.

I'm guessing you have to calculate that yourself, right?  I've never seen a function like that on this website.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

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Demotruk on 11 March 2010
theRepublic said:
Demotruk said:
^It's not perfect, but it shows the way that momentum is going. The PS3's numbers look good because it's had a boost in momentum this year, but it's really about how the numbers change over time. Even if YoY numbers are still high, you can see a decline ahead of time if they are continually getting lower.

Interesting.

I'm guessing you have to calculate that yourself, right?  I've never seen a function like that on this website.

I did graphs of them for Wii in 2008 and 2009. I haven't done a graph of more recent numbers, but I observe them in the weekly threads.

This is what I mean:

 

In 2008 you could already see a lull for most of the latter half of the year (which was a software drought), but because Wii was still up YoY every week, it wasn't noticed. The software at the holiday season made Wii up more again but only for a short period, and the 2009 graph is of course worse..



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

caz604 on 11 March 2010

The biggest problem with analysts, is that they use assumptions based primarily on bias.

But anything is possible, highly unlikely, but possible.



I game.  You game.  We game.

I'm a videogamer, not a fanboy, but have a special place for Nintendo.

Current Systems Owned: NSwitch/PS4/XONE/WiiU/3DS/2DS/PCGaming Rig-i7/ASUS i7 Gaming Laptop.

Previous Game Consoles:  PS3/Xbox360/Wii/DSL/Pretty much every one thats been released since the Atari 2600.

Nyeguy81 on 11 March 2010

this guy needs to lay off the pipe.



theRepublic on 11 March 2010

I see what your saying. So instead of looking at a single cumulative YoY number, you prefer a week-to-week YoY analysis. That makes a lot of sense, and the latter is obviously better.

I think the reason you see so many people doing the former is because it is just easier to figure out with way the site's data is set up.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
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Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
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3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)