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When will Switch pass Wii?

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When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 4 3.20%
 
Early 2022 8 6.40%
 
Mid 2022 13 10.40%
 
Holiday 2022 33 26.40%
 
Early 2023 15 12.00%
 
Mid 2023 10 8.00%
 
Holiday 2023 15 12.00%
 
2024 or later 5 4.00%
 
Never 22 17.60%
 
Total:125
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Will Switch ever get down to as low as $99 though? I'm thinking not.

It's doable if Nintendo wants it, but it isn't necessary.

I wonder why you asked that question. Was it about Switch's chances to pass the PS2 in lifetime sales?

More just being skeptical of Switch having as long legs as DS.



curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

It's doable if Nintendo wants it, but it isn't necessary.

I wonder why you asked that question. Was it about Switch's chances to pass the PS2 in lifetime sales?

More just being skeptical of Switch having as long legs as DS.

You are confusing the hell out of me. I explained why the DS's legs were cut short. Won't be hard for Switch to have seven good years and then some. After all, the successor of Switch will likely launch at $300 again and Nintendo will want to have something to fill the lower end of the market, just like the 3DS saw continued support.

With inflation being a thing, even a $129 Switch with a pre-installed game will be perceived as a very affordable console. That's why Switch doesn't need to hit a sub-$100 price in the long run.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Radek said:
RingoGaSuki said:
I think Switch is only going to pick up steam from here, the games are coming still (Animal Crossing is going to be a ridiculous system seller). I think it'll do it by holiday 2021.

That's simply not possible, 51 millions in 23 months?

I agree with you that it's nigh impossible, but lets just have some fun for a bit and fantasize what it would look like. Currently, Switch is at 50 million. Let's say this year is higher than last year, as many expect it to be. Last year was just over 20 million. Let's say it goes up 20%. It's currently tracking a bit better than that, but we'll assume that's just leftover holiday momentum and that a 20% growth year over year is more realistic. That's 24 million, almost halfway there, with a year to go. For his holiday 2021 scenario to happen, 2020 obviously can't be the peak year. The peak would have to happen in 2021. For that to happen, while I'm sure many would disagree and insist that Switch could just do it on its own, I personally think a hardware revision would be necessary, a Switch Pro. Lets say a Switch Pro releases this year, and next year gets an exclusive Mario Kart 9. Coupled with price cuts for the other hardware, a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing, pushing sales to a final peak of 27 million, passing Wii in holiday 2021. It would take all of the above and a perfect storm of the market liking all of it, but maybe it could happen, and that's what I think it would look like.



HylianSwordsman said:
Radek said:

That's simply not possible, 51 millions in 23 months?

I agree with you that it's nigh impossible, but lets just have some fun for a bit and fantasize what it would look like. Currently, Switch is at 50 million. Let's say this year is higher than last year, as many expect it to be. Last year was just over 20 million. Let's say it goes up 20%. It's currently tracking a bit better than that, but we'll assume that's just leftover holiday momentum and that a 20% growth year over year is more realistic. That's 24 million, almost halfway there, with a year to go. For his holiday 2021 scenario to happen, 2020 obviously can't be the peak year. The peak would have to happen in 2021. For that to happen, while I'm sure many would disagree and insist that Switch could just do it on its own, I personally think a hardware revision would be necessary, a Switch Pro. Lets say a Switch Pro releases this year, and next year gets an exclusive Mario Kart 9. Coupled with price cuts for the other hardware, a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing, pushing sales to a final peak of 27 million, passing Wii in holiday 2021. It would take all of the above and a perfect storm of the market liking all of it, but maybe it could happen, and that's what I think it would look like.

This needs to stop.



Nu-13 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

I agree with you that it's nigh impossible, but lets just have some fun for a bit and fantasize what it would look like. Currently, Switch is at 50 million. Let's say this year is higher than last year, as many expect it to be. Last year was just over 20 million. Let's say it goes up 20%. It's currently tracking a bit better than that, but we'll assume that's just leftover holiday momentum and that a 20% growth year over year is more realistic. That's 24 million, almost halfway there, with a year to go. For his holiday 2021 scenario to happen, 2020 obviously can't be the peak year. The peak would have to happen in 2021. For that to happen, while I'm sure many would disagree and insist that Switch could just do it on its own, I personally think a hardware revision would be necessary, a Switch Pro. Lets say a Switch Pro releases this year, and next year gets an exclusive Mario Kart 9. Coupled with price cuts for the other hardware, a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing, pushing sales to a final peak of 27 million, passing Wii in holiday 2021. It would take all of the above and a perfect storm of the market liking all of it, but maybe it could happen, and that's what I think it would look like.

This needs to stop.

Make me.



Nu-13 said:
HylianSwordsman said:

I agree with you that it's nigh impossible, but lets just have some fun for a bit and fantasize what it would look like. Currently, Switch is at 50 million. Let's say this year is higher than last year, as many expect it to be. Last year was just over 20 million. Let's say it goes up 20%. It's currently tracking a bit better than that, but we'll assume that's just leftover holiday momentum and that a 20% growth year over year is more realistic. That's 24 million, almost halfway there, with a year to go. For his holiday 2021 scenario to happen, 2020 obviously can't be the peak year. The peak would have to happen in 2021. For that to happen, while I'm sure many would disagree and insist that Switch could just do it on its own, I personally think a hardware revision would be necessary, a Switch Pro. Lets say a Switch Pro releases this year, and next year gets an exclusive Mario Kart 9. Coupled with price cuts for the other hardware, a $300 Switch Pro that approaches the level of the original PS4, I think that could keep the 3rd party ports coming and the momentum growing, pushing sales to a final peak of 27 million, passing Wii in holiday 2021. It would take all of the above and a perfect storm of the market liking all of it, but maybe it could happen, and that's what I think it would look like.

This needs to stop.

Agreed. 3rd party ports are not what's selling the Switch, and third parties aren't going to bother porting games to only a small subset of the Switch audience who own a Pro, it wouldn't be worth it. There's no need for a Switch Pro, especially not for the purpose of chasing 3rd party games. As Witcher 3 demonstrates, if they really want to bring their games over, they can do so on the base Switch. If they don't, a Pro model will not change their minds.



The problem it may never pass it



Landguy said:

It will pass the wii in sales totals.  But, when will it pass the DS?  Should compare it to a portable, not a console.

Why? It is both a console and portable and we aren't comparing it to PS2, the best selling console so why compare it to the best selling handheld? The Wii is the gatekeeper of the 100mil sellers so of course we'll compare it to that. Then the gameboy and then the PS2 and then the DS.



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

miqdadi said:
The problem it may never pass it

And how likely is that?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Eagle367 said:
miqdadi said:
The problem it may never pass it

And how likely is that?

- Insert arbitrary or irrational reason here -

 * Nintendo will pull support entirely before 2022.
 * PS5/Xbox X Series will eliminate demand for Switch.
 * Nintendo released all their big hitters already.
 * AlienWare UFO Concept device will kill Switch.
 * No reason....



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."