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When will Switch pass Wii?

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When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 4 3.20%
 
Early 2022 8 6.40%
 
Mid 2022 13 10.40%
 
Holiday 2022 33 26.40%
 
Early 2023 15 12.00%
 
Mid 2023 10 8.00%
 
Holiday 2023 15 12.00%
 
2024 or later 5 4.00%
 
Never 22 17.60%
 
Total:125
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

Switch's third-party support is so good that Switch would pass the Wii even if Nintendo gave Switch the Wii treatment.

The DS received only a few big Nintendo titles in its later years (as usual during Nintendo's time of running two consoles concurrently, almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of a console's life), but that didn't prevent the DS from having a prolonged peak because it had a lot of third party support.

I suppose people will keep being puzzled because Switch has a trajectory similar to the DS or the better selling PS consoles, but that's because they subscribe to myths like "DS is an anomaly" and "PS consoles always have long legs" instead of doing the most basic of analyses. There are no inexplicable factors at play, it's as simple as "software sells hardware." The switch has quickly built a library that contains hundreds of quality titles and has an outlook of more and more coming to the platform, that's why it hasn't peaked in year 2 like many of its detractors wanted to believe.

That's it. 



RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

Switch's third party support is so good that Switch would pass the Wii even if Nintendo gave Switch the Wii treatment.

The DS received only a few big Nintendo titles in its later years (as usual during Nintendo's time of running two consoles concurrently, almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of a console's life), but that didn't prevent the DS from having a prolonged peak because it had a lot of third party support.

I suppose people will keep being puzzled because Switch has a trajectory similar to the DS or the better selling PS consoles, but that's because they subscribe to myths like "DS is an anomaly" and "PS consoles always have long legs" instead of doing the most basic of analyses. There are no inexplicable factors at play, it's as simple as "software sells hardware." Switch has quickly built a library that contains hundreds of quality titles and has an outlook of more and more coming to the platform, that's why it hasn't peaked in year 2 like many of its detractors wanted to believe.

Didn't the DS get Pokemon games after 3DS came out and get down to $99 though?



I think Switch is only going to pick up steam from here, the games are coming still (Animal Crossing is going to be a ridiculous system seller). I think it'll do it by holiday 2021.



RingoGaSuki said:
I think Switch is only going to pick up steam from here, the games are coming still (Animal Crossing is going to be a ridiculous system seller). I think it'll do it by holiday 2021.

That's simply not possible, 51 millions in 23 months?



curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch's third party support is so good that Switch would pass the Wii even if Nintendo gave Switch the Wii treatment.

The DS received only a few big Nintendo titles in its later years (as usual during Nintendo's time of running two consoles concurrently, almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of a console's life), but that didn't prevent the DS from having a prolonged peak because it had a lot of third party support.

I suppose people will keep being puzzled because Switch has a trajectory similar to the DS or the better selling PS consoles, but that's because they subscribe to myths like "DS is an anomaly" and "PS consoles always have long legs" instead of doing the most basic of analyses. There are no inexplicable factors at play, it's as simple as "software sells hardware." Switch has quickly built a library that contains hundreds of quality titles and has an outlook of more and more coming to the platform, that's why it hasn't peaked in year 2 like many of its detractors wanted to believe.

Didn't the DS get Pokemon games after 3DS came out and get down to $99 though?

Yes, the DS did get Pokémon games throughout its life. That's why I said "almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of the console's life." Pokémon is the exception, but the other big IPs didn't see new installments later on.

The point remains that the DS wasn't carried by Nintendo's IPs alone, that's why it had a prolonged peak. And if Nintendo hadn't shifted all priority to the 3DS, including a big price cut that brought the 3DS down to a price close to the DSi and DSi XL, then the DS would have easily gone beyond 160m lifetime. But when consumers face the decision of buying a DSi (XL) or a 3DS when the next gen handheld costs about the same while being fully backwards compatible, then a prospective late adopter of DS hardware is likely to become an early adopter of 3DS hardware. That's why DS sales crumbled in the fiscal year ending March 2012.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

Switch's third party support is so good that Switch would pass the Wii even if Nintendo gave Switch the Wii treatment.

The DS received only a few big Nintendo titles in its later years (as usual during Nintendo's time of running two consoles concurrently, almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of a console's life), but that didn't prevent the DS from having a prolonged peak because it had a lot of third party support.

I suppose people will keep being puzzled because Switch has a trajectory similar to the DS or the better selling PS consoles, but that's because they subscribe to myths like "DS is an anomaly" and "PS consoles always have long legs" instead of doing the most basic of analyses. There are no inexplicable factors at play, it's as simple as "software sells hardware." Switch has quickly built a library that contains hundreds of quality titles and has an outlook of more and more coming to the platform, that's why it hasn't peaked in year 2 like many of its detractors wanted to believe.

I totally agree, and I want to add that Switch's third party support has just barely gotten going.  So far the third party games we've seen have basically been ports and indies.  Where are all the successors to the 3DS and Vita games?  Well, games like Bravely Default 2 and Rune Factory 5 have finally been announced for a 2020 release.  These 3DS devs are taking a while to make Switch games, because it is a huge leap to go from the 3DS to Switch.  But the games are coming!  A huge wave of 3DS successor games is coming, but we are only going to see the very beginning of it this year.

Because of this, Switch sales are going to be high for a very long time.  There is still a lot more life to the Switch.



Lets say Switch peaks this year, not all that higher than last year. Let's say to the end of 2020 it sells another 22 million. That's 72 million. Let's say it starts to drop, 18 million in 2021, that's 90 million. Then 10 million in 2022, for 100 million. That would put it passing Wii in early 2023, most likely, probably in the first quarter of Nintendo's fiscal year that year. I'd say that seems right to me, give or take a bit. I could see it selling 25 million this year, almost 20 million in 2021, and then outselling it sometime in 2022, or I could see it turn out to have peaked last year and it falls just short of the Wii, ending in the 90-100 million range. For now though, my vote is early 2023.



I'm not sure if it will, but I'll say Mid 2023. I think 2020 will be Switch's peak year of hardware sales, and then it will cool down a lot.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 96 million (was 73 million)

3DS: 77 mil (was 73 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Didn't the DS get Pokemon games after 3DS came out and get down to $99 though?

Yes, the DS did get Pokémon games throughout its life. That's why I said "almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of the console's life." Pokémon is the exception, but the other big IPs didn't see new installments later on.

The point remains that the DS wasn't carried by Nintendo's IPs alone, that's why it had a prolonged peak. And if Nintendo hadn't shifted all priority to the 3DS, including a big price cut that brought the 3DS down to a price close to the DSi and DSi XL, then the DS would have easily gone beyond 160m lifetime. But when consumers face the decision of buying a DSi (XL) or a 3DS when the next gen handheld costs about the same while being fully backwards compatible, then a prospective late adopter of DS hardware is likely to become an early adopter of 3DS hardware. That's why DS sales crumbled in the fiscal year ending March 2012.

Will Switch ever get down to as low as $99 though? I'm thinking not.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch's third party support is so good that Switch would pass the Wii even if Nintendo gave Switch the Wii treatment.

The DS received only a few big Nintendo titles in its later years (as usual during Nintendo's time of running two consoles concurrently, almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of a console's life), but that didn't prevent the DS from having a prolonged peak because it had a lot of third party support.

I suppose people will keep being puzzled because Switch has a trajectory similar to the DS or the better selling PS consoles, but that's because they subscribe to myths like "DS is an anomaly" and "PS consoles always have long legs" instead of doing the most basic of analyses. There are no inexplicable factors at play, it's as simple as "software sells hardware." Switch has quickly built a library that contains hundreds of quality titles and has an outlook of more and more coming to the platform, that's why it hasn't peaked in year 2 like many of its detractors wanted to believe.

I totally agree, and I want to add that Switch's third party support has just barely gotten going.  So far the third party games we've seen have basically been ports and indies.  Where are all the successors to the 3DS and Vita games?  Well, games like Bravely Default 2 and Rune Factory 5 have finally been announced for a 2020 release.  These 3DS devs are taking a while to make Switch games, because it is a huge leap to go from the 3DS to Switch.  But the games are coming!  A huge wave of 3DS successor games is coming, but we are only going to see the very beginning of it this year.

Because of this, Switch sales are going to be high for a very long time.  There is still a lot more life to the Switch.

I'm still skeptical this wave of original Switch games from third parties will ever arrive. So far all the evidence seems to point to third parties being their usual short-sighted arseholoe selves and shafting a successful Nintendo platform for no good reason.



curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Yes, the DS did get Pokémon games throughout its life. That's why I said "almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of the console's life." Pokémon is the exception, but the other big IPs didn't see new installments later on.

The point remains that the DS wasn't carried by Nintendo's IPs alone, that's why it had a prolonged peak. And if Nintendo hadn't shifted all priority to the 3DS, including a big price cut that brought the 3DS down to a price close to the DSi and DSi XL, then the DS would have easily gone beyond 160m lifetime. But when consumers face the decision of buying a DSi (XL) or a 3DS when the next gen handheld costs about the same while being fully backwards compatible, then a prospective late adopter of DS hardware is likely to become an early adopter of 3DS hardware. That's why DS sales crumbled in the fiscal year ending March 2012.

Will Switch ever get down to as low as $99 though? I'm thinking not.

It's doable if Nintendo wants it, but it isn't necessary.

I wonder why you asked that question. Was it about Switch's chances to pass the PS2 in lifetime sales?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club