There's no reason for sales to explode to 250M (for a minute there, i thought it was John Lucas making a thread) or even go as high as 150M.

Unlike PS2 or PS4, Switch is not the mass consumer's first choice for a console, nor does it have the best 3d party support to help it reach such a lofty goal.
Not only that but, when 2018 is over, most of Nintendo's biggest IPs will already be out: Zelda 3D, Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Smash, Splatoon, Pokémon (even if not the true core experience). With only Animal Crossing, a true Pokémon (assuming it doesn't share a lot of it's audience with the Let's Go consumers) and a proper 2D Mario (assuming the Wii U port doesn't eat a lot of a proper 2D Mario game audience, when it's released).

We will also have other IPs on the market: Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong, Xenoblade, Mario Party and Arms. Leaving Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario, Tomodachi (??), Mario Maker and Mario & Luigi to come out.

So, exactly how is Switch, without the best 3rd party support and only a few system sellers left, going to reach 150m in sales?
Unless Nintendo is sitting on quite a few system sellers that we don't know about and a lot of 3rd party support incoming, it will be impossible for them to reach those numbers.

Good job, Kirby. You got one!

Well, duh. Gotta climb high first to fall off a cliff.

First you need to from point that reason why Switch is selling great even now are not 3rd party games. Second, PS5/XB2 power difference will most likely go for native 4K resolution and 60 FPS, so Switch could still get some PS5/XB2 ports at 720p for instance, offocurse I dont talk about game like RDR2 that coming even now on Switch, but more about A-AA games. Third Switch is nothing like Wii U, Wii U was dead after 1st year and had very small install base without any sign of growt, Switch is opposite, very healty platform that will have huge install base in any case, so you can expect that some 3rd parties will keep supporting it regardless PS5/XB2 and that includes 3rd party exclusive games also.

But Switch doesn't need to be mass first consumer choice or to have best 3rd party support in order to have great sales, Switch this year will be ship close to 20m despite didnt wasnt first consumer choice or despite didnt had best 3rd party support, any price cut or revision. I mean even Wii or DS didnt had best 3rd party support.

Switch had some it its biggest IPs, but on other hand Switch is still $300 device and Switch didnt had any kind of price cut or revision yet, device like Switch for which you said is not "mass first consumer choice" will have huge boost with price cuts and revisions, simple because there are plenty of people that dont want to pay currently $300 for Switch when you can very offten PS4/XB1 for $200, but in few year Switch will have price point of $200 or lower with multiply revisions, and even stronger built lineup.

Switch will have new IPs, new Pokemon games, New 3D Mario/Zelda games...new 3rd party exclusives, and like I wrote multiply price cuts and revisions. Just for record I dont saying Switch will hit 150m, but Switch passing 100m is very possible and we need to stay open mind to Switch potential and sales.

1+1 is not 2 in this case. 

it will probably reach the 60-70 millions LTD, before new Nintendo console is on the market. 

I am not sure if this is joke thread or not, but I do agree with point that Switch is still away from its true handheld potential mostly because current price point of $300 that higher price point for people that look Switch only like handheld or for people that would love to have multiply Switch devices in home (device per person).
I mean you can very often buy PS4 or XB1 for $200, so for some people its hard to pay $300 for Switch instead. Price cuts and revisions will have huge effect on Switch sales, just to try to imagine how much Switch will sell when will have price point of around $200 or lower with multiple revisions and price points available on market.


I am not saying that Switch will hit 150m, but passing Wii numbers is very possible, Wii had stronger sales in same period than Switch, but Switch will have couple of things that Wii didnt had:
-Longer life span. Nintendo said they planing Switch to have longer life span than usual 6 years, while Nintendo suported Wii for around 4-5 years.
-Handheld side. Wii was selling only like home console, Switch is selling like handheld also, that means higher appealing on market in long run espacily with lower price point and revisions.
-Multiply different type of revisions. Switch is essentially handheld hardware and its sure it will have multiple revisions and different price points similar to 3DS, while Wii had only at end of its life.
-Unified platform that means all Nintendo IPs, both home console and handheld on one platform, that will make Switch lineup more appealing.

Switch will this year end close to 20m, and thats without price cut, with point that next year we will have price cut and probably revision, and with just already confirmed games, Switch will next year most likely do more than 20m.

80m+ is like bar minimum (worst case) that Switch will reach, I mean it will be at 35m+ just after two first years on market.

kirby, at least retain some dignity as a staff member and don't even try to be the next John Lucas

thks

sincerely, a concerned citizen

Be careful about predictions like this. A certain user also claimed that Wii U would go on to sell 240+ million, and he presented a fairly solid argument as to why.

Also, didn’t Wii U have its own Fitness game?

Plus, I don’t think Nintendogs/ Brain Age games would have nearly the same appeal today, as they did back in the DS/ Wii days, mainly because there’s about a million and one apps on smart phones that do the same thing, if not better, either for free or at a much cheaper cost.

I think Nintendo is much better off just keeping Switch as a core games system, rather than trying to capitalize on a past that the smart phone market arguably owns now. My LT prediction for Switch is 85 million, and that’s still pretty good.

"Just for record I dont saying Switch will hit 150m."
But that was the secondary target set for Switch, on this thread. :)

Switch might not need, now, to be the number one choice or have the best 3rd party support, but that won't be true forever. 

Nintendo is burning through it's system sellers really fast.
In 2019, pretty much all system sellers will have been out and it's not because of sequels that the console will see HW sales rise again like we are seeing now. Usually, sequelstend  to sell less because... they are sequels; on a HW basis, people who wanted the franchise already had time to buy the console, so, most of it's potential sales are done.

If there's one thing we learnt with consoles like PS3, PS4 and XB360, is that the old mantra of 200$ will make sales rise and rise, is no longer true.
Consumers are more than willing to buy consoles for higher prices because they know that prices won't go down like before - where in a "short" amount of time, they reached 99 or 149 dollars.
The most recent case being PS4: yes, it's true that the 200$ price tag helped it gain a few million, but with 400$ and, then, 300$ price points, it sold 80+ million consoles.
More, Sony recently said that for every 5 PS4 sold, one is a PRO.
For a console that adds nothing more than better graphics and costs 100$ more, the idea that people are waiting for price cuts doesn't really fit market trends.

I'm not saying that if Switch gets a price cut it will have no meaningful impact, but given it's current appeal, there's no good reason for expect it to put Switch sales in a new plateau - as if people are anxiously waiting for the price cut. People want it now.
And speaking of lowering prices for Switch, they kinda did that during BF and now in Europe with the inclusion, at no cost, of MK8. And we know how this worked!

Personally, i believe that this rush to the market of Nintendo's strongest IPs will actually hurt them in the long run: they got off to a really great start, but they don't have - at least so far - the "weapons" to sustain this impact in the final years of the console. And this may very well dissapoint a lot of people.
3DS pulled it off thanks to revisions and Pokémon Go success, but mostly because it had no competition. And even then it will not reach the 100 million despite being on the market for almost 8 years.

The only way i see Switch reaching such numbers is due to two things: somehow Nintendo comes up with a couple of new system sellers for it's late years and PS5 and XB2 aren't that attractive (causing a slower adoption rate).