Damn im gonna have to get a bigger table serving all this crow xD

Hey man, my prediction is realistic and grounded. It's not a "fall of a cliff" type prediction.

Yours isnt bad lol. But its still 10mil off if im right :p

This is really the first iteration of the Smash series where the previous entry in the series was on comparable hardware. When jumping from N64 to GCN, using the N64 meshes would be inexcusable. With each entry in the series, the characters have needed to be completely re-worked.

The Switch is more powerful than the Wii U, but using Wii U models are "pass"-able, and from Nintendo's perspective, it would be to their benefit to utilize assets from the Wii U version so they can get the game out sooner.

In fact, Sakurai practically said it himself: "Changes could number in the tens of thousands". There is no way they could have re-built an entire Smash game with the full roster from every previous installment in such a short time without heavily relying on Smash 4.

But here's the thing: the idea of re-using assets from Smash 4 causes controversy, and makes haters state things like "Smash Ultimate is just a Wii U port of Smash 4", so it needs to be sugar-coated and described in ways that may not be entirely accurate, but they please the majority of non-tech-savvy individuals.

My take: I admit I haven't done much research on this topic, and am simply using my knowledge to draw a hypothesis which I am fully aware could be entirely false. However, using the skills I've obtained over the many years of being an app developer by trade, I can say with fair confidence that Smash Ultimate will re-use a very large number of assets from Smash 4. And if it were me in Sakurai's shoes, it's the same approach I would take as well, given the task and the timeline. It's not something that even needs to be refuted, but people are quick to take it as an insult and become defensive.

I don't mean to sound defensive. Sakurai even said he used Smash 4 as a basis so there's influence there. I'm just saying they still had to re-render and re-animate characters while balancing them under the new mechanics and pace of the game. Hitstun and knockback are notably different from Smash 4 so moves have to be nerfed and buffed accordingly. Plus, they needed to balance some of the more top-tier characters. Bayonetta and Clound, two characters that have gone under great scrutiny in the last couple of years in the Smash 4 competitive scene, have been noted to have major nerfs according to those who have played them in the demo.

So, ultimately, no pun intended, Sakurai and his team still put in a lot of work to no only balance those that have been established from Smash 4, but re-animate and re-balance those who have been cut such as the Ice Climbers, Wolf, Young Link, Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Pichu. Plus, the information regarding Ultimate is not over. We will see what more is out there for this game.

Yeah I just don't see this Smash as the ''next big entry'' seems like a stop gap to me. I'm just not feeling the hype overall for it like I've seen and felt with past entries. We shall see though

I cant understand the people thinking it will top off at 12 million. IMO 25 million ceiling is FAR more likely then 12 million ceiling. Hell, Smash 4 sold enough copies to have a near 1:2 ratio, which while the Wii U only sold 13 million units, is still pretty impressive.

I remember there was a thread on here talking about the possibility of Zelda, Mario, and Splatoon all selling 10 million copies each on Switch, and there were a few haters that cried BS and stated it was impossible. Not only is it likely to happen now, but it's likely to happen even before the Switch turns 2 years old. I personally think Smash will sell 20-23 million units, but never say never.

18M

Smash will sell well for sure, but nowhere near 25 million.

25m? It's possible, but only because the Switch will have a much higher install base than the Wii. I think Brawl will have a higher attach rate than Ultimate when all is said and done.