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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict lifetime sales of Octopath Traveler

 

I think it will sell...

Less than 1 million 14 9.52%
 
1-2 million 79 53.74%
 
2-3 million 40 27.21%
 
Over 3 million 14 9.52%
 
Total:147
friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

I think Rocket League is probably around 1m on Switch, maybe Golf Story also.

 

Kai_Mao said: 
I don't you can go by graphics and determine whether or not a game is worth $60. 

I mean, will you argue that The Order 1886 was worth its original $60 just because it has high-tech graphics and despite being only an 8 hour single player game with not much else?

Agree, in would that graphics effects on pricing, The Order 1886 would be $80 game while Octopath Traveler would be $20 game despite Octopath Traveler will most likly be much better game and it will have much content (people saying its at least around 50 hours).



think its gonna end up 2m+ lifetime.



Miyamotoo said:
friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

I think Rocket League is probably around 1m on Switch, maybe Golf Story also.

While free-to-play, Fortnite reportedly got downloaded over 2M times on Switch already.

Fifa 18 and Skyrim are probably also around that 1M by now, especially Fifa which got boosted quite a bit with the World Cup.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Miyamotoo said:

I think Rocket League is probably around 1m on Switch, maybe Golf Story also.

While free-to-play, Fortnite reportedly got downloaded over 2M times on Switch already.

Fifa 18 and Skyrim are probably also around that 1M by now, especially Fifa which got boosted quite a bit with the World Cup.

Yeah, but he wrote New IP.



Miyamotoo said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

While free-to-play, Fortnite reportedly got downloaded over 2M times on Switch already.

Fifa 18 and Skyrim are probably also around that 1M by now, especially Fifa which got boosted quite a bit with the World Cup.

Yeah, but he wrote New IP.

Fortnite could be argued to be a new IP, Skyrim and Fifa, not so much, that's true



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, but he wrote New IP.

Fortnite could be argued to be a new IP, Skyrim and Fifa, not so much, that's true

Fortnite is new IP, but its free to play, so it's not really fair to compare it with paid games.



Miyamotoo said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Fortnite could be argued to be a new IP, Skyrim and Fifa, not so much, that's true

Fortnite is new IP, but its free to play, so it's not really fair to compare it with paid games.

Does Mario + Rabbids not count?



I'm 2 points off now. So not bad for myself. Hooray! It's a good game! Another great exclusive for Switch.



I think all those who expected less than 1 Million sales WW LT have very much underestimated the game.



http://gearnuke.com/nintendo-octopath-traveler-sales-amazon-backordered/