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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict lifetime sales of Octopath Traveler

 

I think it will sell...

Less than 1 million 14 9.52%
 
1-2 million 79 53.74%
 
2-3 million 40 27.21%
 
Over 3 million 14 9.52%
 
Total:147
Bofferbrauer2 on 16 July 2018
Wyrdness said:
http://gearnuke.com/nintendo-octopath-traveler-sales-amazon-backordered/

Was to be expected tbh. Oh, and they could have added the stores, who didn't order enough copies (probably because they didn't know the game and thus kept stocks low), resulting in the publishers having not enough reserves when they sold out



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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Bofferbrauer2 on 16 July 2018
Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

 

Keybladewielder said:

I think it will do similar to Bravely Default, 1 to 1.5 million.

 

Kyuu said:
Hard to predict this one but I'll go with 1-1.5 million.

It won't match Bravely Default's sales in Japan due to declining RPG popularity as well as the pop-up book art style. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who finds this weird and immersion breaking.

 

Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

 

Megiddo said:
I think sales will initially be lower than a lot of people think, but it should leg it out past 1 million pretty easily in the end.

 

fedfed said:
1.1 it will get there slowly/eventually. don't think there is a big hype around it. judging by the pre-sales!

 

CGcarmineCG said:

1.5 million copies if it turns out to be very good (and I hope it will be), otherwise 1 million copies.

 

konnichiwa said:
I felt Xenoblade had more hype and it's retail wise struggling to pass the million.

Secondly pre orders in Japan aren't that hot best case it reaches 100K (except if the next days it surprisingly climbs up in pre order numbers)

 

melbye said:
Over a million, not sure if it can catch Xenoblade 2

 

HylianSwordsman said:
Given that the Bravely series did 1.41 and 0.56 million for Default and Second respectively, I think Octopath will do over a million, but not by much. 3DS had a much larger and engaged userbase at the time than Switch does now, and still sold that little. Octopath will have the advantage of being the first of its kind on the system, and in the middle of a relative drought, though not a terribly bad one by Wii U standards. If not for those advantages, it wouldn't even do a million. I say this as someone who loved the Bravely series and wants to buy Octopath day one and see it succeed. I'm hopeful it will gain enough momentum to get a little past Default and maybe even over 2 million, but I don't expect it.

 

Metroid33slayer said:
Lucky if it does a million IMO. These types of games always struggle to sell.

 

friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

Still expect your predictions to be correct?



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

melbye on 16 July 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pinkie_pie said:
I played the demo but im buying the game unless it's $20. 1m demo downloaded means nothing. Im predicting 1m max

 

Keybladewielder said:

I think it will do similar to Bravely Default, 1 to 1.5 million.

 

Kyuu said:
Hard to predict this one but I'll go with 1-1.5 million.

It won't match Bravely Default's sales in Japan due to declining RPG popularity as well as the pop-up book art style. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who finds this weird and immersion breaking.

 

Slownenberg said:
Depends on the price. Since its a retro style (granted its 2d retro on 3d world) it feels like an indie game that should be like $30. I'm totally down to buy this game for that kind of price. But no way I'm buying it anywhere close to $60. Does it have a price yet? If it's near $60 I say definitely under 1 million. If it's $30 I could see lifetime 1.5 - 2 million.

 

Megiddo said:
I think sales will initially be lower than a lot of people think, but it should leg it out past 1 million pretty easily in the end.

 

fedfed said:
1.1 it will get there slowly/eventually. don't think there is a big hype around it. judging by the pre-sales!

 

CGcarmineCG said:

1.5 million copies if it turns out to be very good (and I hope it will be), otherwise 1 million copies.

 

konnichiwa said:
I felt Xenoblade had more hype and it's retail wise struggling to pass the million.

Secondly pre orders in Japan aren't that hot best case it reaches 100K (except if the next days it surprisingly climbs up in pre order numbers)

 

melbye said:
Over a million, not sure if it can catch Xenoblade 2

 

HylianSwordsman said:
Given that the Bravely series did 1.41 and 0.56 million for Default and Second respectively, I think Octopath will do over a million, but not by much. 3DS had a much larger and engaged userbase at the time than Switch does now, and still sold that little. Octopath will have the advantage of being the first of its kind on the system, and in the middle of a relative drought, though not a terribly bad one by Wii U standards. If not for those advantages, it wouldn't even do a million. I say this as someone who loved the Bravely series and wants to buy Octopath day one and see it succeed. I'm hopeful it will gain enough momentum to get a little past Default and maybe even over 2 million, but I don't expect it.

 

Metroid33slayer said:
Lucky if it does a million IMO. These types of games always struggle to sell.

 

friendlyfamine said:

This would be the first third-party new IP 1m+ seller on Switch, correct?

It might take a little longer to reach 1m than some might like to admit.

I imagine most people who bought Xenoblade 2 would tune into this, but Xenoblade 2 had a lot more advertisement backing it.

I've kind of been looking around, and I've seen that a lot of the advertisement views on youtube are botted/unrepresentative of how popular the game is. I think it'll at least reach around 200k+ in Japan, beating whatever Xenoblade 2 sold there. Not sure if it can beat Xenoblade 2's numbers in the US or Europe, but I overall don't expect this game to sell more than Bravely Default. It all really depends on the preview footage and reviews really. I know that people will cancel their order or revaluate their purchase decision if it ends up lower than 80 on Metacritic since story seems to be very important in these kinds of games.

And the price hurts, just noticed. Opening month it could hit 500k at peak, maybe it will be at 1 million by the end of the year. But I'm being optimistic since Skyrim even in holiday season barely broke that figure in a month and a few weeks.

Still expect your predictions to be correct?

yes



Bofferbrauer2 on 16 July 2018
melbye said:
Bofferbrauer2 said: 

Still expect your predictions to be correct?

yes

Well yours was simply over 1M, so yeah that should be correct, though not very accurate

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 16 July 2018

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Helloplite on 16 July 2018

I don't see how a mostly glorified SaGa game could do anything over 800k, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does better.



melbye on 16 July 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
melbye said:

yes

Well yours was simply over 1M, so yeah that should be correct, though not very accurate

But i also said it won't pass Xenoblade, so we'll see about that. Not entirely confident with that prediction but i'm sticking to it



OTBWY on 16 July 2018
Helloplite said:
I don't see how a mostly glorified SaGa game could do anything over 800k, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does better.

There's not that much of SaGa there to make it a glorified SaGa game beyond the multiple story mechanic, and perhaps some music. In that sense, you could just as well call it a glorified Live A Live game. It is quite broad in what it can be compared to, such a Bravely or FFVI.



konnichiwa on 16 July 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
melbye said:

yes

Well yours was simply over 1M, so yeah that should be correct, though not very accurate

Not sure why quoted me and others =p.

All we know so far is that less copies were pre ordered in Japan than bravely Default/Second and that it's first weeks seems to be less than the other two in Japan.






contestgamer on 16 July 2018

I dont understand why all the options listed are so small. It's like you're just asking how bad will it flop. Yeah I know "over 3 million" could mean anything, but it doesn't allow for much detail. Over 5 million, over 10 million and over 20 million would be more reasonable options.



Bofferbrauer2 on 16 July 2018
konnichiwa said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Well yours was simply over 1M, so yeah that should be correct, though not very accurate

Not sure why quoted me and others =p.

All we know so far is that less copies were pre ordered in Japan than bravely Default/Second and that it's first weeks seems to be less than the other two in Japan.

Then how about being so sold out on Amazon US that you'll basically have to wait until September if you order now (ships in 1-2 months it says), it's the bestselling game by revenue in the UK (the toughest market for Nintendo) selling twice as much as Bravely default did in December 2012, or that Square Enix apologized for the lack of copies as it's sold out in Japan

In other words, demand is very high - much higher as it was for Xenoblade Chronicles 2 imo

contestgamer said: 
I dont understand why all the options listed are so small. It's like you're just asking how bad will it flop. Yeah I know "over 3 million" could mean anything, but it doesn't allow for much detail. Over 5 million, over 10 million and over 20 million would be more reasonable options.

And yet almost nobody choose over 3M. In fact, more thought less than 1M

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 16 July 2018

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/