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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Replicant said:

NPD December is always 5 weeks.

In 2017, it covered the 5 weeks running from November 26 to December 30 and it included Cyber Monday sales.

In 2018, it doesn't include Cyber Monday so PS4 should definitely follow the yoy trend and be down at least 10%.

 

Edit: Here's Mat Piscatella's tweet. NPD December in 2018 covers the 5 weeks running from December 2 to January 5.

I know about this year, I was just confused because January was also a weeks month this year and it sounded illogical to have two 5-week months back-to-back.

March, June, September & December are always 5 weeks and January has 5 weeks once every 5 years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I know about this year, I was just confused because January was also a weeks month this year and it sounded illogical to have two 5-week months back-to-back.

March, June, September & December are always 5 weeks and January has 5 weeks once every 5 years.

Thanks, that clears up the picture for me



01/04/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 57 (-2) - 299.95$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 88 (+6) - 235.00$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 89 (-2) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 98 (R) - 250.00$

PS4 : 44 + 12 = 56 points (-4) ; XBO : 13 points (+3) ; NS : 165 + 104 = 269 points (-6)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 7 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 42 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 60 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 70 (+11) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 170 + 40 = 390 points (+5) ; XBO : 68 + 31 = 99 points (+3) ; NS : 205 + 195 = 400 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (+4)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 25 (+3)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 59 (+10)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 150 points (+5) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 185 + 92 = 277 points (+20)

Overall :

1 - NS : 573.2 points (+16.2) ; Month Average : 640.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 39.3 points (+3.9) ; Month Average : 465.8 points/day ; 0.73 (-0.01)
3 (-) - PS4 : 272.8 points (+2.8) ; Month Average : 353.8 points/day ; 0.55 (-)



Symbios63 said:
01/04/19 :

Overall :

1 - NS : 573.2 points (+16.2)
2 - XBO : 39.3 points (+3.9)
3 - PS4 : 272.8 points (+2.8)

Wow xbox sales dropped like a rock.
I know a few days like this doesnt matter much for the great picture of things, but thats still some really slow sales atm.



I´ve been saying this for ages but I will repeat it one more time:  MS absolutely NEEDS to permanently drop their prices. 

Especially for the X1X.  I think most of the Xbox early adopters are ready to do the upgrade.  They just don´t wanna pay $500 for it.



 

chakkra said:

I´ve been saying this for ages but I will repeat it one more time:  MS absolutely NEEDS to permanently drop their prices. 

Especially for the X1X.  I think most of the Xbox early adopters are ready to do the upgrade.  They just don´t wanna pay $500 for it.

Their diskless XBO is coming early 2019 according to rumors so we might see an entry price of $150-$200.



jason1637 said:

 

chakkra said:

I´ve been saying this for ages but I will repeat it one more time:  MS absolutely NEEDS to permanently drop their prices. 

Especially for the X1X.  I think most of the Xbox early adopters are ready to do the upgrade.  They just don´t wanna pay $500 for it.

Their diskless XBO is coming early 2019 according to rumors so we might see an entry price of $150-$200.

That will help for sure.  But I'm more interested in seeing what effects a permanent $399 X1X could have.  Like I said before, early gen adopters have had their machines for 5 years already.  And those original machines (both X1 and PS4) are starting to show their age. 



JRPGfan said:
Symbios63 said:
01/04/19 :

Overall :

1 - NS : 573.2 points (+16.2)
2 - XBO : 39.3 points (+3.9)
3 - PS4 : 272.8 points (+2.8)

Wow xbox sales dropped like a rock.
I know a few days like this doesnt matter much for the great picture of things, but thats still some really slow sales atm.

Yeah, it really looks like everybody who wanted an Xbox bought one when it was dirt cheap an that there's no demand now anymore.



01/05/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-2) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 51 (+6) - 299.95$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 78 (+10) - 236.00$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 89 (-2) - 399.99$

PS4 : 50 points (-6) ; XBO : 23 points (+10) ; NS : 155 + 104 = 259 points (-10)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 7 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 40 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 66 (-5) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 73 (-3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 160 + 35 = 375 points (-15) ; XBO : 72 + 28 = 100 points (+1) ; NS : 205 + 195 = 400 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (-2)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 19 (+6)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 56 (+3)
4 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 177 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 12 = 177 points (+27) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 180 + 96 = 276 points (-1)

Overall :

1 - NS : 564.2 points (-9.0) ; Month Average : 638.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 49.9 points (+10.6) ; Month Average : 453.9 points/day ; 0.71 (-0.02)
3 (-) - PS4 : 292.0 points (+19.2) ; Month Average : 352.1 points/day ; 0.55 (-)


And here is the final update for December, XBO might be overestimated because of post christmas promotion but we will see...



Symbios63 said:



And here is the final update for December, XBO might be overestimated because of post christmas promotion but we will see...

I think the last week with near nil points balanced that out a bit again