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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 14 - Game Thread

zexen_lowe on 10 March 2010

The way I look at this is.

Let's suppose there are two mafia remaining, Falcon is obviously one of those. The other HAS to be either j0 or trangent, so in the worst case we have a 50% chance of finding it, even more if we catch a slip up.

On the other hand, the SK is tricker, it could be me (it isn't, but let's go with that), it could be KF, or it could even be j0 or trangent. Picking any of those gives us a 25% chance of finding the SK


But let's suppose axum wasn't lying and there are only three mafia. Then the SK is either trangent or j0, without a doubt, because there's no way both would be lying


Therefore, in both cases, lynching either j0 or trangent is the way to go, because we KNOW one of those is lying, no matter how many mafia there are remaining. It's a matter of probabilities, and I'd rather have a 50% chance of getting someone NO MATTER WHAT IS THE SITUATION OF THE TOWN AND THE NUMBER OF MAFIAS, than a chance that fluctuates between 25% or 0% depending on the number of mafias there are out there, that's just based on a hunch that, on top of that, is wrong




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dsister44 on 10 March 2010
zexen_lowe said:
The way I look at this is.

Let's suppose there are two mafia remaining, Falcon is obviously one of those. The other HAS to be either j0 or trangent, so in the worst case we have a 50% chance of finding it, even more if we catch a slip up.

On the other hand, the SK is tricker, it could be me (it isn't, but let's go with that), it could be KF, or it could even be j0 or trangent. Picking any of those gives us a 25% chance of finding the SK


But let's suppose axum wasn't lying and there are only three mafia. Then the SK is either trangent or j0, without a doubt, because there's no way both would be lying


Therefore, in both cases, lynching either j0 or trangent is the way to go, because we KNOW one of those is lying, no matter how many mafia there are remaining. It's a matter of probabilities, and I'd rather have a 50% chance of getting someone NO MATTER WHAT IS THE SITUATION OF THE TOWN AND THE NUMBER OF MAFIAS, than a chance that fluctuates between 25% or 0% depending on the number of mafias there are out there, that's just based on a hunch that, on top of that, is wrong

Axum already lied. Iirc he said there were only two mafia in his faction.

But if we lynch an innocent then the town loses.

  • dsister 
  • Kingfate
  • Falcon
  • Trangentspree 
  • c03n3nj0
  • Zexen

That's who's left of the town. 3 have to be innocent. So if we lynch one scum and one townie. And then one townie dies tonight. Then the town is outnumbered.

So today. Really makes or breaks the game! 



trangentspree on 10 March 2010

We do of course realise we are going to need KingFate involved in whatever we decide to do.



trangentspree on 10 March 2010

Way to kill the thread, trangentspree.

Guys. Do you think we can sort this out tomorrow? I need my sleeps. My bed is singing to me.



c03n3nj0 on 10 March 2010
zexen_lowe said:
The way I look at this is.

Let's suppose there are two mafia remaining, Falcon is obviously one of those. The other HAS to be either j0 or trangent, so in the worst case we have a 50% chance of finding it, even more if we catch a slip up.

On the other hand, the SK is tricker, it could be me (it isn't, but let's go with that), it could be KF, or it could even be j0 or trangent. Picking any of those gives us a 25% chance of finding the SK


But let's suppose axum wasn't lying and there are only three mafia. Then the SK is either trangent or j0, without a doubt, because there's no way both would be lying


Therefore, in both cases, lynching either j0 or trangent is the way to go, because we KNOW one of those is lying, no matter how many mafia there are remaining. It's a matter of probabilities, and I'd rather have a 50% chance of getting someone NO MATTER WHAT IS THE SITUATION OF THE TOWN AND THE NUMBER OF MAFIAS, than a chance that fluctuates between 25% or 0% depending on the number of mafias there are out there, that's just based on a hunch that, on top of that, is wrong

But going after me [edit- and] trangentspree, you lose a nurse. 

DL us- one is nurse other is one of two mafia- the serial killer and other mafia are remaining and the entire town is killed in one night.

DL us- one is nurse and other last mafia- last day is two people versus one serial killer, extremely bad position for town. 

DL us- one is nurse and other serial killer- two mafia remain, 2-2 town loses. One mafia remains, last day is 2-1, with cop not protected and gone, town is dangerous position. 

The town has 50% of winnig if this happens. And the winning positions are bleak, and the town can easily lose in both of them (especially the Serial Killer alive version) 

Even dsister's plan looks better than this to me.

The red is fixed annoying typos- I think I have to go sleep, too. Be back tomorrow after school. 



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zexen_lowe on 10 March 2010
c03n3nj0 said:
zexen_lowe said:
The way I look at this is.

Let's suppose there are two mafia remaining, Falcon is obviously one of those. The other HAS to be either j0 or trangent, so in the worst case we have a 50% chance of finding it, even more if we catch a slip up.

On the other hand, the SK is tricker, it could be me (it isn't, but let's go with that), it could be KF, or it could even be j0 or trangent. Picking any of those gives us a 25% chance of finding the SK


But let's suppose axum wasn't lying and there are only three mafia. Then the SK is either trangent or j0, without a doubt, because there's no way both would be lying


Therefore, in both cases, lynching either j0 or trangent is the way to go, because we KNOW one of those is lying, no matter how many mafia there are remaining. It's a matter of probabilities, and I'd rather have a 50% chance of getting someone NO MATTER WHAT IS THE SITUATION OF THE TOWN AND THE NUMBER OF MAFIAS, than a chance that fluctuates between 25% or 0% depending on the number of mafias there are out there, that's just based on a hunch that, on top of that, is wrong

But going after me [edit- and] trangentspree, you lose a nurse. 

DL us- one is nurse other is one of two mafia- the serial killer and other mafia are remaining and the entire town is killed in one night.

DL us- one is nurse and other last mafia- last day is two people versus one serial killer, extremely bad position for town. 

DL us- one is nurse and other serial killer- two mafia remain, 2-2 town loses. One mafia remains, last day is 2-1, with cop not protected and gone, town is dangerous position. 

The town has 50% of winnig if this happens. And the winning positions are bleak, and the town can easily lose in both of them (especially the Serial Killer alive version) 

Even dsister's plan looks better than this to me.

The red is fixed annoying typos- I think I have to go sleep, too. Be back tomorrow after school. 

I never said going after you two. I said going after Falcon AND one of you two




dsister44 on 11 March 2010
trangentspree said:
Way to kill the thread, trangentspree.

Guys. Do you think we can sort this out tomorrow? I need my sleeps. My bed is singing to me.

Yeah, get some sleep.

 

Nothing is happening tonight 



Final-Fan on 11 March 2010

I want to talk SO BAD

Also I can't decide if I'm more likely to be a "weathervane" or a "broken weathervane".



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theRepublic on 11 March 2010
Final-Fan said:
I want to talk SO BAD

Same here.



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KingFate on 11 March 2010
trangentspree said:
We do of course realise we are going to need KingFate involved in whatever we decide to do.

I voted for Falcon already. He is the only scum that isn't a chance that will hurt the town.



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