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Forums - Sales Discussion - Updated sales numbers from NPD via GAF (Forza, Demon's Soul, Rabbids, etc.)

Zlejedi on 28 January 2010
binary solo said:
Zlejedi said:
Slimebeast said:

So Demon's Souls and Valkyria Chronicles have a lot higher numbers on VGC than NPD.

I hope it's just a coincidence that these two games also are extremely unproportionally popular on this particular forum...

This is probably system error if you look at this it's often high quality low sales number gamers that are very hypped in the internet that get overtracked a lot by VGC.

This would imply that those games receive the status of must have's and the number of for example VC sales is a some multiplier*number of consoles sold (you can see this by investigating massive surge of VC sales in christmas season)

Yes I'm quite certain ioi uses an internet hype factor modifier in calculating estimates for games. It definitely seems like it would improve the accuracy of the estimates most of the time.

Punch-Out, Conduit  - both had adjustments after first month NPD

Simple link:

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?game1=Valkyria%20Chronicles%20-%20PS3[18897]

 



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Slimebeast on 28 January 2010
Zlejedi said:
binary solo said:
Zlejedi said:
Slimebeast said:

So Demon's Souls and Valkyria Chronicles have a lot higher numbers on VGC than NPD.

I hope it's just a coincidence that these two games also are extremely unproportionally popular on this particular forum...

This is probably system error if you look at this it's often high quality low sales number gamers that are very hypped in the internet that get overtracked a lot by VGC.

This would imply that those games receive the status of must have's and the number of for example VC sales is a some multiplier*number of consoles sold (you can see this by investigating massive surge of VC sales in christmas season)

Yes I'm quite certain ioi uses an internet hype factor modifier in calculating estimates for games. It definitely seems like it would improve the accuracy of the estimates most of the time.

Punch-Out, Conduit  - both had adjustments after first month NPD

Simple link:

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?game1=Valkyria%20Chronicles%20-%20PS3[18897]

 

Wow, that's quite an unnatural sales pattern over time (even if u disregard the first part of the curve which I assume is Japanese sales).



jarrod on 28 January 2010
axumblade said:
Soriku said:

Some more figures:

MGS4 is over 1.3m, KZ2 is over 800k.

For reference VGC has MGS4 at 2 mil, KZ2 at 1.01 mil in the NAs.

NPD Doesn't count bundles but VGC does. So the 2 million seems accurate enough.

No way 700k MGS4 bundles were sold.  Maybe half that.  Bundles + standalone pushed MGS4 to a million in June iirc, but the bundles were sold out almost immediately because the 80GBs were the last units w/PS2 backwards compatibility.



jarrod on 28 January 2010
axumblade said:
jarrod said:
axumblade said:
Soriku said:

Some more figures:

MGS4 is over 1.3m, KZ2 is over 800k.

For reference VGC has MGS4 at 2 mil, KZ2 at 1.01 mil in the NAs.

NPD Doesn't count bundles but VGC does. So the 2 million seems accurate enough.

No way 700k MGS4 bundles were sold.  Maybe half that.  Bundles + standalone pushed MGS4 to a million in June iirc, but the bundles were sold out almost immediately because the 80GBs were the last units w/PS2 backwards compatibility.

Edit:

Not really. I work retail. We sat on the Metal Gear Solid IV bundles for a while with the systems. Also accounting for the holiday bundle, which was also extremely limited and then saying Canada and Mexico sold the rest of the 700k is not far fetched at all considering how hyped of a game Metal Gear Solid IV was.

Sorry for rewriting that but it probably only seemed like they lasted forever because we kept getting replinishment of them for a while. It was well over a month (probably 2-3 months) we got the systems in. Plus a few randomly after they were "discontinued."

I still find the idea of 700k US MGS4 bundles hugely unlikely.  I know they had a small 2nd shipment in July too, but even still it'd have meant a 3:4 sales ratio with the standalone for 2008.  Frankly, I doubt more than (max) 400k bundles were even produced given how spotty availability was even before launch.

Canada/Mexico could account for some difference (probably 8-12%) but even still I'd imagine VGC has overtracked MGS4 somewhat.  Not a 700k difference clearly, but this still doesn't match up.



jarrod on 28 January 2010
axumblade said:
jarrod said:
axumblade said:
jarrod said:
axumblade said:
Soriku said:

Some more figures:

MGS4 is over 1.3m, KZ2 is over 800k.

For reference VGC has MGS4 at 2 mil, KZ2 at 1.01 mil in the NAs.

NPD Doesn't count bundles but VGC does. So the 2 million seems accurate enough.

No way 700k MGS4 bundles were sold.  Maybe half that.  Bundles + standalone pushed MGS4 to a million in June iirc, but the bundles were sold out almost immediately because the 80GBs were the last units w/PS2 backwards compatibility.

Edit:

Not really. I work retail. We sat on the Metal Gear Solid IV bundles for a while with the systems. Also accounting for the holiday bundle, which was also extremely limited and then saying Canada and Mexico sold the rest of the 700k is not far fetched at all considering how hyped of a game Metal Gear Solid IV was.

Sorry for rewriting that but it probably only seemed like they lasted forever because we kept getting replinishment of them for a while. It was well over a month (probably 2-3 months) we got the systems in. Plus a few randomly after they were "discontinued."

I still find the idea of 700k US MGS4 bundles hugely unlikely.  I know they had a small 2nd shipment in July too, but even still it'd have meant a 3:4 sales ratio with the standalone for 2008.  Frankly, I doubt more than (max) 400k bundles were even produced given how spotty availability was even before launch.

Canada/Mexico could account for some difference (probably 8-12%) but even still I'd imagine VGC has overtracked MGS4 somewhat.  Not a 700k difference clearly, but this still doesn't match up.

So if you say 400k bundles were produced. That means that there's only about 300k others. Then throw in another 10k for the Killzone/Metal Gear Solid bundles from the holiday season....And you're saying 290k sales between Canada and Mexico is unlikely? 

I said 400k max, as in more than that and I'd have to suspend disbelief.  In reality I'd say closer to 300k.  And yeah, 290k Ca/Me is unlikely imo given the general size of their markets.  General rule for Canada is 8-10% US iirc, Mexico less than half that.

NA might be say 1.8m-ish total going off the NPD figures.  Which would still be overtracked via VGC, but again not by the huge margin NPD's 1.3m superficially implies.



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jarrod on 28 January 2010
axumblade said:
jarrod said:
axumblade said:
jarrod said:
axumblade said:
jarrod said:
axumblade said:
Soriku said:

Some more figures:

MGS4 is over 1.3m, KZ2 is over 800k.

For reference VGC has MGS4 at 2 mil, KZ2 at 1.01 mil in the NAs.

NPD Doesn't count bundles but VGC does. So the 2 million seems accurate enough.

No way 700k MGS4 bundles were sold.  Maybe half that.  Bundles + standalone pushed MGS4 to a million in June iirc, but the bundles were sold out almost immediately because the 80GBs were the last units w/PS2 backwards compatibility.

Edit:

Not really. I work retail. We sat on the Metal Gear Solid IV bundles for a while with the systems. Also accounting for the holiday bundle, which was also extremely limited and then saying Canada and Mexico sold the rest of the 700k is not far fetched at all considering how hyped of a game Metal Gear Solid IV was.

Sorry for rewriting that but it probably only seemed like they lasted forever because we kept getting replinishment of them for a while. It was well over a month (probably 2-3 months) we got the systems in. Plus a few randomly after they were "discontinued."

I still find the idea of 700k US MGS4 bundles hugely unlikely.  I know they had a small 2nd shipment in July too, but even still it'd have meant a 3:4 sales ratio with the standalone for 2008.  Frankly, I doubt more than (max) 400k bundles were even produced given how spotty availability was even before launch.

Canada/Mexico could account for some difference (probably 8-12%) but even still I'd imagine VGC has overtracked MGS4 somewhat.  Not a 700k difference clearly, but this still doesn't match up.

So if you say 400k bundles were produced. That means that there's only about 300k others. Then throw in another 10k for the Killzone/Metal Gear Solid bundles from the holiday season....And you're saying 290k sales between Canada and Mexico is unlikely? 

I said 400k max, as in more than that and I'd have to suspend disbelief.  In reality I'd say closer to 300k.  And yeah, 290k Ca/Me is unlikely imo given the general size of their markets.  General rule for Canada is 8-10% US iirc, Mexico less than half that.

NA might be say 1.8m-ish total going off the NPD figures.  Which would still be overtracked via VGC, but again not by the huge margin NPD's 1.3m superficially implies.

Honest ly, the 8-10% is an estimation so there is no guarantee what is right or wrong. IIRC, Canada also got the PS3 bundle, which would have their numbers go up significantly as well. I will admit that it might be a little overtracked but it is nowhere near as bad as what the initial claim. 

Oh, well I think we're in agreement then.

But yeah, NPD not "counting" bundled software is always going to make the discrepancy appear bigger than it actually is.  Uncharted is another good example, though it probably had significantly more bundle sales.



Hero_time88 on 28 January 2010

500k MGS4 bundels were shipped back then, that leaves 200k for the other countrys in The Americas, so where is the problem?

VC and DS's are obviously overtracked, but I did never believe in the first place that they were selling that well.



Naum on 28 January 2010
axumblade said:
Soriku said:

Some more figures:

MGS4 is over 1.3m, KZ2 is over 800k.

For reference VGC has MGS4 at 2 mil, KZ2 at 1.01 mil in the NAs.

NPD Doesn't count bundles but VGC does. So the 2 million seems accurate enough.

Hmm that leaves 700k MGS4 bundles.. seems still a bit high or it have sold really well in Canada/Mexico.



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sabby_e17 on 28 January 2010

Some of these seem very low.

Is it possible for NPD to undertrack?




jarrod on 28 January 2010
axumblade said:
Hero_time88 said:
500k MGS4 bundels were shipped back then, that leaves 200k for the other countrys in The Americas, so where is the problem?

VC and DS's are obviously overtracked, but I did never believe in the first place that they were selling that well.

Do you have a source for the 500k? Not that I don't believe you but it would kind of settle the war I'm in with jarrod over bundle numbers. :P 

The only references for 500k bundles I'm finding are referencing Japan, and turned out incorrect anyway.

I did find that the 70k bundles sold out 1st day in the US...