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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

megaman79 on 26 January 2010
Seece said:
Does a search for the word "patcher" ....

checking ....

not found!

Maybe there is some credibility in this after all?

While GS were only one of two surviving Wall Street Investment firms, its not unknown that former executives from GS work for the white house.

Id guess that ANYBODY who works in finance, and is still currently working in finance, is either damn lucky to still be working or damn lucky that people still believe anything they say.

 

- My opinion, no way is a 56% attach rate possible.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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oldschoolfool on 26 January 2010

Natal can be huge,if it's done right!!!! Software and marketing are key.



mike_intellivision on 26 January 2010

This is a prediction written by people who seem to know nothing (or next to nothing) about video gaming.

Wii Fit's 40+% attach rate (and I actually think it is closer to 38%) is phenomenal.

Getting more than half the existing users to buy an add-on that is targeted toward users who are not like the current users is going to be much more difficult. The analysts mention about the differences in user profile between Wii and 360, but do not get the fact that this peripheral is targeted more toward the type of user the Wii has than the 360 has.

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Raze on 26 January 2010

I think Goldman Sachs has a lower success rate of predictions than Pachter.

Besdies, its been said to death, but remains true - Casual gamers buy ONE system, and they've already chosen Wii. Natal is better off being pitched to current 360 owners and focus on making it work with "core" games instead of what will be a failed attempt at attracting casual gamers.



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rccsetzer on 26 January 2010

Can't imagine playing Dragon Age: Origins with Natal, for example.



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saicho on 26 January 2010
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

theRepublic on 26 January 2010

The Goldman Sachs analysts obviously believe consumer demand for the motion-sensitive Project Natal device will be big. In a note to clients, they say they expect Natal to reach a 56 percent "attach rate" less than two years after its launch, meaning that more than half of new and existing Xbox 360 owners will buy Natal for their consoles. By comparison, they say, Nintendo's Wii Fit achieved a 41 percent attach rate over a similar time period.
There is so much fail here. There is no way Natal is going to have a better attach rate than Wii Fit. Natal needs to be lucky just to get to 35%.



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theRepublic on 26 January 2010
GreyianStorm said:
$1.7 billion in revenue in FY2011 + $2.3 billion in revenue in FY2012. They claim a retail price of $85. They also say in 2 years (so more or less end of FY2012), it will have a 56% attach rate? So they expect Natal to sell roughly 47 million units, meaning 56% attach rate puts it at roughly 84 million units. Do they really expect the 360 to sell 47 million units over the next 2 1/2 years, when it has sold less than 80% of that in more than 4 years?

I don't think the analysts are doing the math like that.  The additional revenue will not just come from selling Natal like you calculated.  It will also come from selling Natal games, and it also probably includes the revenue from the boost in console sales the 360 will see.



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RageBot on 26 January 2010
thx1139 said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

But the Wii exists already.

If you believe there still will be a market for the Wii when the Natal ships then there will also be a market for 360+Natal.  You cant have it both ways.  Some people will be interested because they get a great console for gamers and for casuals.  My wife simply wants a Natal because of the demo where the woman was flipping through movies on the 360 by waving her hand and giving voice commands.  She loves Netflix and the Video features of the 360, but hates using a remote.  She is not the only woman I know that is like that (hating remotes).

So much of this conversation reminds me of the time before the Wii came out.  People complaining about the lack of seeing software announcements. Ask yourself when did Nintendo show Wii software other than the demo (which turned out to be WiiSports and WiiPlay)?  Natal has been shown at E3 and other conferences behind closed doors.  It will make another showing at GDC and then be fully unveiled at E3.  Sounds like a pretty sound plan.  Developers have been saying great things about it as well.

The market that the Natal is aiming for is either already on the Wii, or will most probably buy a Wii in the future.



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rccsetzer on 26 January 2010
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.