Damn that is a bullish estimate.

Haha, if Microsoft developers or execs think in any way like Boneitis does, this analyst's expectations will be way way off. We'll get a bunch of birdman casual games with Natal and the general public will look at them, dump them and go back to Wii games.

Birdman might have a bigger audience than you think:

Well analysts are also known to be wrong in predictions, but we shall see...

You really think that they EASILY can make a game for Natal that's more enjoyable than Wii Sports?  Are you kidding me?  Have you played either Wii Sports or it's sequel?  I'm guessing that you haven't.  Let me tell you something about Wii Sports; that is the game that everyone will talk about from this generation 20 years from now.  Plain and simple.  Nintendo was at it's lowest point when the Wii came out.  What was once thought of as great was now looked at as a kid's toy that resembled a purple lunch box, and Wii Sports alone was the game that made these skeptical consumers want to buy a Nintendo console again.  There is tons of depth to the game and is not just popular because people love to waggle as you stated in a previous post. 

Nintendo is the only of the big three that's a gaming only company.  Don't you think that this might be why people might enjoy their games?  Maybe they know how to make them, don't you think?  I guess not.  I'm sure that Microsoft will pack in something with Natal that's infinitely better, right?

Obviously the stock market is all about risk and information like this is supposed to help you assess your exposure to the risk. That aside the information does seem bullish.

People are writing off Natal because they believe the device does not work. Ask yourself this what if it does and does eveything well at a price that is affordable. I think it is safe to say the analysts are working on that principal. Obviously the risk is that is does not work well and is expensive. From what I have seen and heard to date I am leaning towards the view the device will work and at the right price.

... Analysts, eh?

I was confident that Natal was going to be a huge success......until these fucking analists got involved (heh, heh,...."anal"ists). Aren't they the ones who bet against the Wii?


Xbox 360 is doomed.

If you believe there still will be a market for the Wii when the Natal ships then there will also be a market for 360+Natal.  You cant have it both ways.  Some people will be interested because they get a great console for gamers and for casuals.  My wife simply wants a Natal because of the demo where the woman was flipping through movies on the 360 by waving her hand and giving voice commands.  She loves Netflix and the Video features of the 360, but hates using a remote.  She is not the only woman I know that is like that (hating remotes).

So much of this conversation reminds me of the time before the Wii came out.  People complaining about the lack of seeing software announcements. Ask yourself when did Nintendo show Wii software other than the demo (which turned out to be WiiSports and WiiPlay)?  Natal has been shown at E3 and other conferences behind closed doors.  It will make another showing at GDC and then be fully unveiled at E3.  Sounds like a pretty sound plan.  Developers have been saying great things about it as well.

Only one way to settle this:  somebody make a "Is Wii Sports a Game?" poll, quick!