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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

richardhutnik said:
Phobos said:
Godman Sachs - not Goldman Sachs.
They don't deserve to have the word 'gold' in their name, after all they have done and with all there papergold.

Why do they deserve the name "God" either?  In what capacity are they God-like in what they are doing?  How about Gadman (not again) Sachs?

 

Because Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein says: "I'm Doing God's Work."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/07/goldman-sachs-ceo-lloyd-b_0_n_349620.html

 

 

 

 



 

 

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value..."

 

Alan Greenspan, 1967

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Simply laughable numbers, based on poor understanding of the video game market.



Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.



The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.

Its barely a game in my opinion. But there's clearly a market for games like that.

They could easily make something similar and even better with the Natal. More importantly, we could use our avatars!



Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

But the Wii exists already.



Bet with Dr.A.Peter.Nintendo that Super Mario Galaxy 2 won't sell 15 million copies up to six months after it's release, the winner will get Avatar control for a week and signature control for a month.

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Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.

Its barely a game in my opinion. But there's clearly a market for games like that.

They could easily make something similar and even better with the Natal. More importantly, we could use our avatars!

Well that's an interesting philosophy, but the key word there is "easily."  If it was so easy to steal the minds and hearts of the whole planet with a game like Wii Sports, everybody would be doing it.  But it JUST happened with Wii Sports.  Microsoft has to make lightning strike in the same place twice... but then put their name on it instead of Nintendo's name, and Nintendo has been building that momentum with that audience for over 3 years now.

All I'm saying is Natal is a crazy uphill battle.  Changing your strategy halfway through the battle is nuts either way.  Going motion controls now is just as crazy as Nintendo making a Wii HD.



RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

But the Wii exists already.

It doesn't have to be as successful as the Wii to be successful.

Don't worry, there is still plenty of money to go around.



$1.7 billion in revenue in FY2011 + $2.3 billion in revenue in FY2012. They claim a retail price of $85. They also say in 2 years (so more or less end of FY2012), it will have a 56% attach rate? So they expect Natal to sell roughly 47 million units, meaning 56% attach rate puts it at roughly 84 million units. Do they really expect the 360 to sell 47 million units over the next 2 1/2 years, when it has sold less than 80% of that in more than 4 years?



The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking.

People pay money for Wii Sports in Japan, and also at GameStop, eBay.com, and Nintendo.com.  I think people like it.  I think it's one of the best games of the decade.

Its barely a game in my opinion. But there's clearly a market for games like that.

They could easily make something similar and even better with the Natal. More importantly, we could use our avatars!

Well that's an interesting philosophy, but the key word there is "easily."  If it was so easy to steal the minds and hearts of the whole planet with a game like Wii Sports, everybody would be doing it.  But it JUST happened with Wii Sports.  Microsoft has to make lightning strike in the same place twice... but then put their name on it instead of Nintendo's name, and Nintendo has been building that momentum with that audience for over 3 years now.

All I'm saying is Natal is a crazy uphill battle.  Changing your strategy halfway through the battle is nuts either way.  Going motion controls now is just as crazy as Nintendo making a Wii HD.

I just said they can easily make a more enjoyable game. You're talking about the hype/success.

Bad comparison. Motion controls on the 360 is going to be an add-on. Its the same console and its looking like it should be a cheap device. The Wii HD on the otherhand would be a new console.



Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

What if the software isn't of high quality? I don't think 3rd parties will be able to get it right off the bat, frankly. Look at the Wii. There are plenty of 3rd party studios who aren't putting near enough effort to make wise use of the motion controls.



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Kojima: Come out with Project S already!