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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

megaman79 on 26 January 2010
libellule said:

good read, as always

It is not that Natal can't succeed, it is just that the "fun" title (ala wiisport/wiifit) that will drive the sales crazy remains to be seen ...

true, but if were being honest not even Iwata thought bathroom scales would do what they did.

Even after E3 we really might still not know for sure.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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saicho on 26 January 2010
Boneitis said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
rccsetzer said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.

In that Natal video MS put out, they show a family playing a quiz game using their hands as the buzzer.

If it only supports one player at a time, that was incredibly misleading.

again. I'm interested to see how it works in a 4 player sports game like Tennis or Madden. simply using it as a buzzer would be very different to use it to pass, run and receive.

Q: What about multiplayer games? How does that work? On the demos it seemed like you use voice commands to lock in a particular player.

A: We actually do a full skeletal mapping for more than one person in the scene.

Q: How many people do you map and how many can play at once?

A: It depends on fidelity and other things that you want to bring into the equation -- how many points. We feel we're going to be at the pont where we can have full-room fun experiences. It's not one person, one person's skeleton, one person's voice. We're going to have full skeletal mapping for multiple people in the room.

It's going to be fun. Because we can map your skeleton, we'll know where you are.

Q: Do players have to be in the same plane to be "seen" by the device? What if one is standing behind the other?

A: There's a lot of magic in the technology. Think -- we know what a skeleton looks like. Once we map to you, even if we lose you for a certain amount of time, we can interpolate where you are. It works very well, it's very impressive.

The software and what it's able to track and the interpolation that's able to happen are really where the magic happens. That's why I say it's really about the research that went in to develop the technology we have today.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/technologybrierdudleysblog/2009296568_e3_new_info_on_microsofts_nata.html

This still doesn't show me anything. It sounds great in theory. Where is this game that demostrate it? That's why I want to "see" how it works.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

thx1139 on 26 January 2010

Then wait for the unveiling of release games at E3.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

JerCotter7 on 26 January 2010

I read this as billions to M$ debt until I reread it. I can see it generating 150-200mil. And that is best case scenario. Might surprise me though :)



supercat on 26 January 2010
megaman79 said:
supercat said:
For those that don't know.....Goldman Sachs has been widely considered the top investment banking, trading, and research firm for the last 40 years. Everybody and their dog wants in, heck i've applied and they probably just threw my resume in the trash. You basically won't get into a finance role whether inv banking, a research analyst, stock trader or broker or other sales role unless you have an Ivy League degree (haavaaad, yale, etc) .

Yea im sorry to tell you but these are superficial standards for judging an employee, and i wouldn't be surprised if it was all show, and a little bit of the old boys club.


The reality is they fucked up just everyone else in 2008.

ok, but realize that being a member of a top-tier company, and a member of "the old boys club" where I'm guessing that you are saying that one guy helps the other, aren't mutually exlusive at all.  In fact, sell-side research, which is probably where this came from, is always overwhelmingly optimistic because the brokers and institutional salespeople use this research to sell more stocks which wouldnt happen if an analyst said that they had deep reservations ab out natal.  So, we aren't really disagreeing at all.  

 

 



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Boneitis on 26 January 2010
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
rccsetzer said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.

In that Natal video MS put out, they show a family playing a quiz game using their hands as the buzzer.

If it only supports one player at a time, that was incredibly misleading.

again. I'm interested to see how it works in a 4 player sports game like Tennis or Madden. simply using it as a buzzer would be very different to use it to pass, run and receive.

Q: What about multiplayer games? How does that work? On the demos it seemed like you use voice commands to lock in a particular player.

A: We actually do a full skeletal mapping for more than one person in the scene.

Q: How many people do you map and how many can play at once?

A: It depends on fidelity and other things that you want to bring into the equation -- how many points. We feel we're going to be at the pont where we can have full-room fun experiences. It's not one person, one person's skeleton, one person's voice. We're going to have full skeletal mapping for multiple people in the room.

It's going to be fun. Because we can map your skeleton, we'll know where you are.

Q: Do players have to be in the same plane to be "seen" by the device? What if one is standing behind the other?

A: There's a lot of magic in the technology. Think -- we know what a skeleton looks like. Once we map to you, even if we lose you for a certain amount of time, we can interpolate where you are. It works very well, it's very impressive.

The software and what it's able to track and the interpolation that's able to happen are really where the magic happens. That's why I say it's really about the research that went in to develop the technology we have today.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/technologybrierdudleysblog/2009296568_e3_new_info_on_microsofts_nata.html

This still doesn't show me anything. It sounds great in theory. Where is this game that demostrate it? That's why I want to "see" how it works.

You're just being cynical, that said plenty.

Clearly there is a huge focus on making this work with multiple players.



Aion on 27 January 2010

I think Natal will be a success, if not then thats it.



 

   PROUD MEMBER OF THE PLAYSTATION 3 : RPG FAN CLUB

 

saicho on 27 January 2010
Boneitis said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
rccsetzer said:
saicho said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
RageBot said:
Boneitis said:
If its affordable, I don't see how it can fail.

Because the fact that something is affordable doesn't mean the pepole are going to buy it.

Well this isn't just random affordable device. It has quite a bit of hype and software support following it.

Therefore, I believe price plays a big roll in its success.

Right now, it is just a device, we don't even know if it's going to be "affordable", we don't know if it's going to have games that the mass market will want.

Therefore it's a complete failure to try and analyze anything before we know something about the Natal and it's games.

One more thing to mention - Wii Sports/Fit/Whatever for the Natal won't sell, there's already a Wii.

WiiSports is a free game. So if they include a clone with every Natal, people will buy it.

It will also be more enjoyable on the Natal because it will have actual motion tracking. And it won't require 4 controllers, just one Natal.

This is the part I always have question about. So I could play a 4 player game (ex Tennis or Madden) with only one NATAL? How does it work?

OT - As many already pointed out, 56% attach rate is crazy. It would have been amazing if it can reach 40% attach rate. I don't think NATAL will outsell WM+ or Balance Board.

 

Natal is for only one person, not? The rest will have to play with joysticks. Am i wrong ? Please show me a video demonstrating two or more persons playing.

In that Natal video MS put out, they show a family playing a quiz game using their hands as the buzzer.

If it only supports one player at a time, that was incredibly misleading.

again. I'm interested to see how it works in a 4 player sports game like Tennis or Madden. simply using it as a buzzer would be very different to use it to pass, run and receive.

Q: What about multiplayer games? How does that work? On the demos it seemed like you use voice commands to lock in a particular player.

A: We actually do a full skeletal mapping for more than one person in the scene.

Q: How many people do you map and how many can play at once?

A: It depends on fidelity and other things that you want to bring into the equation -- how many points. We feel we're going to be at the pont where we can have full-room fun experiences. It's not one person, one person's skeleton, one person's voice. We're going to have full skeletal mapping for multiple people in the room.

It's going to be fun. Because we can map your skeleton, we'll know where you are.

Q: Do players have to be in the same plane to be "seen" by the device? What if one is standing behind the other?

A: There's a lot of magic in the technology. Think -- we know what a skeleton looks like. Once we map to you, even if we lose you for a certain amount of time, we can interpolate where you are. It works very well, it's very impressive.

The software and what it's able to track and the interpolation that's able to happen are really where the magic happens. That's why I say it's really about the research that went in to develop the technology we have today.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/technologybrierdudleysblog/2009296568_e3_new_info_on_microsofts_nata.html

This still doesn't show me anything. It sounds great in theory. Where is this game that demostrate it? That's why I want to "see" how it works.

You're just being cynical, that said plenty.

Clearly there is a huge focus on making this work with multiple players.

A huge focus to make it work does not guarantee it will work exactly as they envisioned. Have you seen how it works with sports games? If not, all you have are the words of the developers. A lot of ideas look great on paper but don't turn out as great when they are implemented. I don't understand why I can not have doubt on how well it works until I see a real game to demostrate it and have to buy into it based on just words.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Boneitis on 27 January 2010

Considering the Natal can track the sketetal mappings of a room full of people, I think it can handle sports games.

Just weird you can't admit the Natal sounds promising.



theRepublic on 27 January 2010
Boneitis said:
Wagram said:
Analysts also predicted that Titanic and Avatar were going to be box office failures. Look what happened.

Honestly this is a wait and see for me. I'm not too sure whether or not many HD fans will adapt to using motion controllers. If they wanted them they could have just purchased a Wii. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 The Natal has far more potential than the Wii. Let me know when the Wii doesn't require a controller.

 And the technology will be used beyond the Xbox 360.

This is where you and I differ.  I see Natal having less potential because it doesn't have a controller.  I guess we will have to wait and see what kind of games get released for it.



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