Look at Guitar Hero... had Activision nurtured COD on Wii like they did GH, I'd say COD Wii sales today would be in the territory of matching COD PS3 sales.

Hmmm... Guitar Hero is your best example? A casual game on a console that appeals to casual gamers.

Also, Guitar Hero is such a simple game. Just a people dancing around on a stage and you press buttons.

Recreating Modern Warfare on the Wii has to be far more difficult/expensive.

I would agree with you if not for the fact that there doesn't seem to be any anticipation whatsoever. It looked good at E3 but they haven't done much to keep people talking about it.

Maybe when reviews start to come in people's interest will be renewed, if they're positive of course. Right now I can't see it hitting a million ever.

It's good example since it's from the same company.  Releases were always day and date, as feature competitive as possible, and (this is key) hugely promoted.  GH wasn't an easy transition either, initially people said 100% conversions would be impossible due to the network infrastructure and memory limitations Wii imposed.  GH was actually progressive and worked around them, it's like the anti-COD.

And make no mistake, COD is about as "casual" as fps get...

I didn't say near. I said 2 to 3 million range. And that makes it pretty damn worth it.

Oh the irony, I'm Postman Pat and you're a donut. 

Didn't I just swear off betting?    But so few games like this break a million (just CoD and Star Wars titles) and RS certainly lacks that kind of brand power.    Okay.  Your on. 

I doubt it in the space of 1 yr unless it's heavily advertised. Maybe lifetime it'll reach 1-1.5 million. It really is dependent on advertising. The adverts I saw for Red Steel 1 were really quite good but the novelty of waving a sword might have been lost on people now even with WM+. Also, when is it releasing? Will Natal and Arc have been released as we might see it having increased competition from HD games as well.

It's releasing at the end of March, so it'll have a good head start on any games using the competitor's motion controllers.

I think it's March?  Arc/Natal aren't until fall.

Nintendo should seriously step in and promote RS2 themselves (a la MH3).  Ubi's sending it to die.

I think Nintendo did the adverts for the first one as well (they were very similar to the other Wii ads in the UK at least). It's releasing a lot earlier than I thought. If Nintendo do step in to do adverts than I think it can sell well.