kowenicki said: Netyaroze said: ^PS3 peak year 13 Mln Xbox peak year 10.8 Million. And it seems PS3 hasnt peaked yet because its up yoy and first 9 months 2009 were horrible. Xbox sold 10.1 Mln 2009. It is down yoy even more this year 3rd year is normaly peak. And 3rd fiscal year was Xbox peak year. Normaly there is no upwards trend after that. PS3 was blocked because of high price. If it continuous to be up 40-70% yoy until september it will peak 2010. PS3 still increasing sales Xbox360 and even Wii sold less 2009 then 2008 PS3 sold every year more:   Xbox360 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009 until now trend seems to continue Wii 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009  PS3 2005<2006<2007<2008<2009 until now trend seems to continue There is no comparison. the 360 was up for the first 40 odd weeks of 2009 and it ended it down.  (in early 2009 it was up massively) dont count any chickens just yet.

 

Yes nothing is said and done I just wanted to show why the Xbox year 2008 was not as succesful as 2009 year of PS3. because he said this:

 

"But wasn't the 360 doing the same late 2008 when it had a price cut?  What's different this time around (other than the role reversal of the PS3 being doomed vs. wait until the price cut)?"

 

It was not the same and you and everybody else has to admit it. The 2009 PS3 year was more succesful (hardware sales wise) then the 2008 Xbox360 year.

 

In terms of closing the gap and in terms of total hardware sales. MS did not the exactly same thing in 2008, Sony did in 2009 (hardware wise).

 

And Its more up yoy until now then Xbox was up yoy during the beginnig of 2009. And MS had decreased sales like Nintendo one year Sony didnt so thats also another fact why this isnt the same stuation vice versa. 

 

MS can do pricecuts redesigns and Natal. But I think only the pricecut will be possible for the beginnig of the year. But maybe they will drop all 3 things in the end of the year.

 

After March we will have a better picture, how this will go on . Until september/october when MS counters. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What I think is their two options 1if natal fails to deliver the heat and hype to increase marketshare and flops microsoft next weapon will be a new third xbox to be first or option2 they will sell the 360 at low price and Have a high end price for 720 similar to ps2/ps3 senerial

Twistedpixel said: Netyaroze said: @twistedpixel 1.Yes Everyone is working on a new system. Sony also, I think they will be prepared to release it as soon as MS so the same thing cant happen again. 2. Maybe they will have 2 consoles at the same time but I dont think this will happen and the reason is quite simple. Only ONE last gen console was strong enough to last long enough to be in the next gen. But I dont think the market is strong enough to carry PS3 Xbox360 Wii and PS4 Xbox720 and WII 2 at the same time. I dont see that happening sorry. To keep a console at life so long in the next gen was achieved just by Sony but maybe this Time it will be Nintendo because they are marketleader and the nature of their customers which dont care about graphics so at best I see Wii living long into next gen. But the 360 is already at 159k I dont see it living another 5 years. 3. The Xbox360 wont live as long as the PS2 the PS2 is the best selling console the Xbox not. Infact I see it living until 2012 but not longer. And then both or maybe een all three will release new consoles. 4. ofcourse I am guessing their motivations because they dont tell you their real intentions. Everyone has to guess. I cant see an Xbox before 2012 the reasons I wrote are perfectly fine. 5. They made their money back ? Lol maybe but thats not the point they dont want to sell it they want to dominate the market and spread their standards. But that would be considered as a failure and thats not what the Shareholders wanted to see. They invested money Billions. years ago so if they sell their gaming devision what exactly they will sell. The Name ? Or what ? Infact you have to be a giant company to keep this thing running not everyone could buy the Xbox Games Devision and what are the assets. Its mostly the name plus the rights to software titles and devellopers. Considering the inflation it would be a bad deal. And MS wouldnt do that ever. But what exactly is your point ? What do you want to say ? That the Xbox 720 is coming next year ? Or that the Xbox willbe released before the PS4 ? You are just guessing like I am so what exactly want you to discuss ? You just want to tell me that there is another point of view or that my opinion is wrong ? 1. Working on a new system yes, but thats only in terms of interface/software and basic design. The actual hardware has to be defined more than two years prior to release, which is why rumours about next generation hardware come out between 2.5 and 3 years before release. If a console maker gets surprised it would take two years for them to respond to a successful console launch. 2. The emerging markets of the 2nd/3rd world will keep the present consoles afloat for at least another 5 years. If only to win these markets a current generation console will tend to linger on. If theres a fairly substantial price difference they can keep both in the market at the same time. If say the console launches for $299 $399, they can keep a $100-$150 Xbox 360 on the market to satisfy the lower end. Microsoft is no stranger to offering multiple generations of Windows for sale for example. 3. It depends on how they use it after the release of the next Xbox. Even if it doesn't last 12 years it'll probably make it to 9/10 years no problem because the system is just incredibly cheap and can support quantities of flash in place of a mechanical HDD and the games are small so advances in distigital distribution can keep it going. 4. Without knowing what their intentions are you cannot predict their direction. 5. Profit is defined as measureable and realisable. If they could sell the division and make back more than they have lost then by any accounting text book they have made a profit even if they don't realise these gains, they've still made an asset by any definition. If they've met this definition then anything since that point has been pure profit from their investment. I just felt like arguing, this is a forum after all.

 

1. Agree. I think Sony lost some of its arrogance due to Xbox success. Thats why they dont will rely on their name again and I think they wont be surprised by MS again.

 

2. Emerging markets will play a role but I think they arent ready yet. maybe next gen or the gen after the financial stability and overall wealth in those nations is not equally spread thats why piracy is a big issue.  95% of the market are Europe Japan NA yet.

3. We will see Natal can prolonger the life eventually. But I still have doubts that Xbox will live as long as PS1 or PS2 in the next generation. 

4. I give my best opinion based on my logic I can try to predict their actions, ofcourse I would never say this is going to happen I just want to   explain why I believe this will happen. It could go either way ofcourse.

 

5. They would profit in the end just like Sony if they would sell  SCE. I read some articles about the possible intentions of MS wich was to spread their standards like DirectX and Control the living room of people.l I think thats their primary goal if they would sell the Game devision they wouldnt make a loss but they would still lose. 

 

ofcourse I like also to argue thats why I am here just wanted to understand your intentions

 

 

 

Netyaroze said: kowenicki said: Netyaroze said: ^PS3 peak year 13 Mln Xbox peak year 10.8 Million. And it seems PS3 hasnt peaked yet because its up yoy and first 9 months 2009 were horrible. Xbox sold 10.1 Mln 2009. It is down yoy even more this year 3rd year is normaly peak. And 3rd fiscal year was Xbox peak year. Normaly there is no upwards trend after that. PS3 was blocked because of high price. If it continuous to be up 40-70% yoy until september it will peak 2010. PS3 still increasing sales Xbox360 and even Wii sold less 2009 then 2008 PS3 sold every year more:   Xbox360 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009 until now trend seems to continue Wii 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009  PS3 2005<2006<2007<2008<2009 until now trend seems to continue There is no comparison. the 360 was up for the first 40 odd weeks of 2009 and it ended it down.  (in early 2009 it was up massively) dont count any chickens just yet.   Yes nothing is said and done I just wanted to show why the Xbox year 2008 was not as succesful as 2009 year of PS3. because he said this:   "But wasn't the 360 doing the same late 2008 when it had a price cut?  What's different this time around (other than the role reversal of the PS3 being doomed vs. wait until the price cut)?"   It was not the same and you and everybody else has to admit it. The 2009 PS3 year was more succesful (hardware sales wise) then the 2008 Xbox360 year.   In terms of closing the gap and in terms of total hardware sales. MS did not the exactly same thing in 2008, Sony did in 2009 (hardware wise).   And Its more up yoy until now then Xbox was up yoy during the beginnig of 2009. And MS had decreased sales like Nintendo one year Sony didnt so thats also another fact why this isnt the same stuation vice versa.    MS can do pricecuts redesigns and Natal. But I think only the pricecut will be possible for the beginnig of the year. But maybe they will drop all 3 things in the end of the year.   After March we will have a better picture, how this will go on . Until september/october when MS counters.

FFXIII was released in Japan.  This is the ONE game that the Japanese gaming community has been WAITING to purchase a PS3 for.  The sales explosion makes that obvious.

So why did the PS3 do so much better in 2009 than the 360 in 2008?  FFXIII was finally released in Japan. 

My point was more about how much the PS3 outsold the 360 after the slim-cut was comparable to how much the 360 outsold the PS3 in 2008 after its price cut.  And everybody overreacted to that as well.

Both Sony and MS are working on there new console, but we will not see any of them till 2012 , maybe 2013, Both Sony and MS are content with how things are going, They both also have some great technology comming out with Natal and Arc, I think they will see how this technology does and maybe how it can be improved, and make sure its dialed in before they launch there new console, that way its big for both. Hate to break it to you guys but Sony and MS will be batelling for many many years to come, and that really is good for us, because we will win, they will always be trying to one up each other, so we will be getting lots and lots of cool shit in the mean time.

Darth Tigris said: Netyaroze said: kowenicki said: Netyaroze said: ^PS3 peak year 13 Mln Xbox peak year 10.8 Million. And it seems PS3 hasnt peaked yet because its up yoy and first 9 months 2009 were horrible. Xbox sold 10.1 Mln 2009. It is down yoy even more this year 3rd year is normaly peak. And 3rd fiscal year was Xbox peak year. Normaly there is no upwards trend after that. PS3 was blocked because of high price. If it continuous to be up 40-70% yoy until september it will peak 2010. PS3 still increasing sales Xbox360 and even Wii sold less 2009 then 2008 PS3 sold every year more:   Xbox360 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009 until now trend seems to continue Wii 2005<2006<2007<2008>2009  PS3 2005<2006<2007<2008<2009 until now trend seems to continue There is no comparison. the 360 was up for the first 40 odd weeks of 2009 and it ended it down.  (in early 2009 it was up massively) dont count any chickens just yet.   Yes nothing is said and done I just wanted to show why the Xbox year 2008 was not as succesful as 2009 year of PS3. because he said this:   "But wasn't the 360 doing the same late 2008 when it had a price cut?  What's different this time around (other than the role reversal of the PS3 being doomed vs. wait until the price cut)?"   It was not the same and you and everybody else has to admit it. The 2009 PS3 year was more succesful (hardware sales wise) then the 2008 Xbox360 year.   In terms of closing the gap and in terms of total hardware sales. MS did not the exactly same thing in 2008, Sony did in 2009 (hardware wise).   And Its more up yoy until now then Xbox was up yoy during the beginnig of 2009. And MS had decreased sales like Nintendo one year Sony didnt so thats also another fact why this isnt the same stuation vice versa.    MS can do pricecuts redesigns and Natal. But I think only the pricecut will be possible for the beginnig of the year. But maybe they will drop all 3 things in the end of the year.   After March we will have a better picture, how this will go on . Until september/october when MS counters.                FFXIII was released in Japan.  This is the ONE game that the Japanese gaming community has been WAITING to purchase a PS3 for.  The sales explosion makes that obvious. So why did the PS3 do so much better in 2009 than the 360 in 2008?  FFXIII was finally released in Japan.  My point was more about how much the PS3 outsold the 360 after the slim-cut was comparable to how much the 360 outsold the PS3 in 2008 after its price cut.  And everybody overreacted to that as well.

Ok japan accounts for roughly 500k after FFXIII release. Even then nothing changed also Ps3 was never in decline Xbox was.
PS3 sold a lot more consoles after its price cut then 360. Japan waited for FF13 but after FF13 they sould just 500k and this is not everything due to FF13. 2008 there were major releases for Xbox too like Fable 2.

Even without Japan after FF13 release Ps3s peak year by now was still higher then Xbox year in 2008. 1.5 Million more consoles sold. PS3 had two weeks with roughly 950k+ such a thing was never achieved from Xbox. Its pretty clear that the demand for PS3 is just higher.

The numbers are on different levels and the situation for the PS3 is way better then for the Xbox. Xbox has peaked. If there was one year decline the consoles normaly dont top their highest year. It was a rule until this gen with the DS.

The PS3 was 9 months in pretty bad shape its in very good shape now if it go on further like this until September PS3 could sell 14-15 Million in 2010. Every week the Xbox is down yoy it will make it a lot harder to be on par with 2009 or 2008 in the the last months of 2010 sales have to double if the trend goes on.
2008 Xbox360

PS3 sold way more then Xbox after its pricecut. Just compare the charts by date. Especially if you know that until 1 September 2009 the PS3 sales were abysmal.


And I am not upset I dont think I have overreacted or someone else. This is a forum its here to discuss things. I wanted to clear up the myth that Xbox and PS3 have just switched places when its not like this because the numbers speak against it.
You dont should take this to serious afterall its just consoles I see that like beeing fan from a football team. I dont wanted to offend you or something like that. I just took the chance, to explain, why I think this situation is not comparable anymore.

 

this is dumb. No new console will come out until 2012. And PS3 will last longer because of bluray and its 3d compatible. If microsoft releases first its because they will be trying to catch up to PS3 hardware-wise

when Microsoft releases the next x box, it won't be called the 720. 360 was an arbitrary name and wasn't following a pattern from the name of the first x box, and microsoft will do the same with the next system as well. 

@Netyaroze

Ok, using VGC numbers, from Sep-Dec 2008, the 360 outsold the PS3 WW around about 2,051,000 units. From Sep-Dec 2009, the PS3 outsold the 360 WW around about 2,167,000 units. Both of the increases were after pricecuts that the other didn't have.

That's the only point that I was making. They are EXTREMELY comparable. Holiday 2008's 360 performance didn't doom the PS3, so why would this one doom the 360? It doesn't make sense. These numbers reflect the trend of a price cut, not some major change in the market.

I do not think Sony is in a financial position to launch a new console for at least 2 years, most likely 3. Launching a new console traditionally means taking a huge loss per unit for the first couple of years at a minimum... Sony needs to recoup at least some PS3 losses first. Only after a couple of years of overall profitability will Sony be in a strong position to think about a new console, and they also have to put in the time effort and $$ next time around to make sure that the dev kit is fully fleshed out and ample middleware is in place, so developers feel comfortable making the plunge to a new platform. Or else it will be PS3 all over again.

On the MS side, right now MS is caught in something of an awkward position. The 360 platform is, to the best of my knowledge, making a profit. Thus, they are in no hurry to advance. They are betting on Natal to at least provide "political cover" for not launching a new console for the time being, IMO it really will play out as more of an excuse to analysts and investors than anything. "Why not new console - why Natal of course!" I do not think Natal will make huge waves on 360, I think it will not be until the next gen that it really gains software and traction, however there is absolutly no reason for Natal to not be forward-compatable with MS next platform offering. After a very lukewarm 2010 launch, look forward to MS promising big things for Natal owners when the "720" hits, and expanded Natal launch offerings and even bundles similar to Wii Sports.

So why the delay? Well, it is likely a matter of format as much as anything. MS knows that doing DVD again for next-gen is a non-starter, it works well enough for now, but trying to go into the next gen with DVD would cause most devs and publishers to roll their eyes and financial analysts to openly wonder what MS was thinking. Going blu-ray would amount to a loss of face, and paying of royalties to Sony albiet indirectly via the blu-ray consortium which includes many other industry figures... most of whom are at odds with MS in various arenas.

HD-DVD is dead as a general entertainment media, but MS could still use the platform for gaming, likely at preferred royalty rates and though this move seems logical at first glance, many people will openly question the wisdom of using a "dead" platform. After all, to many reasonable people it will seem like petty spite, even though it would actually make sound business sense. But it is certainly better for MS to be able to claim they are using whichever medium they choose next because of its features, not because its simply cheap and they did not want to go with the competition.

So where does that leave us?

I think the most likely scenario is a return to..... yeah, you guessed it - cartridges. Or rather, solid state storage. This medium has many theoretical advantages, including drastically lower Bill of MAterials for the actual gaming system since it will require no HD-disc drive , better reliability since USB/ROM ports are typically more reliable than optical drives, less heat, faster data access to name a few.

So what are they waiting for? Likely the price to come down. If they were to attempt such a move at the moment, even at MS huge buying capacity for volume rates - games would still cost 80$ at retail. A flash drive with the reliability and size required to be a valid contender still costs considerably more than a DVD or even blu-ray. Pricing increases sharply past 8GB, and they assuredly want a system capable of competing with Blu-Ray storage at a reasonable price. They know what charging Publishers 20$ or even 40$ for a cartrige/ROM would do, they saw it with N64.

Time is on their side though, prices are falling and will continue to do so. I anticipate the pricing to be in the sweet spot within 2 years, and MS to launch a new console around that time. After NAtals coming lukewarm reception, scrutiny will shift from Natal to 720 and MS will start prepping accordingly.

Prediction: MS launches new console end of 2011/early 2012 with Sony lagging behind until late 2012/early to mid 2013. New console will feature some form of solid state cartridge for storage. MS will get another head start, the question will be how well Sony manages their marketing during this time, how good their then-current games are and if they can seamlessly transition dev houses this time around for a stronger slate of launch titles. If they cant, they will be in trouble.