Graces got killed by FFXIII, no question.  Had Vesperia PS3 switched release dates with it, they'd have probably switched sales numbers too. Pretty much no one expected it to sell what Symphonia KOR did.

Sengoku Musou 3 did pretty well though, and Sengoku tends to sell worse than Sangoku regardless.  Even so, it's only 50k behind SSM5, which is better than usual for the series (SM2 was over 350k behind SSM4 on PS2).

And there's other PS2 series seeing equal success on Wii vs last gen besides Monster Hunter.  Taiko no Tatsujin, DQ spinoffs, Biohazard Chronicles (versus Gun Survivor), Momotaru Dentetsu, Fatal Frame, etc.  I'm betting expecting DQX equals or outsells DQVIII.

Huh?  It's 90k short of where SSM5 was at five weeks in, and 168k down overall.

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=Dynasty+Warriors+6+-+PS3[7695]&reg2=All&game2=Samurai+Warriors+3+-+Wii[37512]&reg3=Japan&game3=&weeks=69

And it fell short of the Gundam Musou series, a new Musou franchise that started with the ps3.

Also, Umbrella Chronicles has sold just more than half of what Resident Evil Outbreak sold in Japan, despite the latter being online-centric, something unusual for the series.  The Chronicles series is besting the performance of Outbreak File #2, but that game was universally panned.  It holds a 58 on Metacritic, and sold accordingly.  As far as I know, those were the only Resident Evil spin-offs that changed up their gameplay drastically from the main series on ps2. 

We don't seem to have any data for the Fatal Frame series in the database, so I can't really comment either way, but Fatal Frame IV was probably helped along by the fact that Nintendo was heavily involved in the fourth installment compared to the others.  They published, funded, and oversaw development of the title.

I still hold to my original claim.

You can... but you'd be wrong if you ask me.

The thing your missing is just how big Final Fantasy is.  Additionally it's not an "RPG" persons game in Japan.  It's ANYBODIES game.  The kind of game that moves systems.

Bigger Userbase + Smaller entry price if you buy a console = bigger sales.

People just don't not buy Final Fantasy games in Japan unless they have a REALLY good reason.  Likely the PS3's price was the barrier.

I'd blame it more on the fact that you have to buy a second console at all.  Last gen just about everybody had a ps2, so there was no worry in that regard.  This gen that isn't the case.  There is no single system that everbody has in Japan (aside from the DS lol), and you're gonna have people caught in the middle either way.

Just look at the sales of something like Resident Evil 4 on the GameCube last gen.  The GameCube was absurdly cheap by 2004, and the RE series had consistantly sold millions in Japan up until that point, but the GC version barely broke 200k.  A year late port to ps2 ended up selling more. Peopel weren't even willing to fork over the $100 for a GC.

It's not about price.  It's about having to buy an extra console at all.  You have your diehard fans (50k bought a ps3 simply for the DEMO of FFXIII), but most people aren't like that.  With Final Fantasy XIII, you'd have been looking at spending an extra $200+ regardless of which system you owned and which system you had to buy.

By this point in the ps2's life it had sold well over 12 million in Japan alone, and I assume a large portion of that 3 million or so that haven't bought Wiis bought ps3s, which is why games sell so well on ps3 in comparison to Wii despite the install base discrepancy.  These people would've had to fork over the cash for a Wii had the situation been reversed.  Would they have done it?

Edit:

Whoops.  It seems RE4 hit the GameCube in January of 2005.   Doesn't really change what I said.

Yeah.  Of course, more would then who purchased the PS3 in anycase.

Additionally, 3 million is 3 million... vs 9 Million.  For one of the biggest franchises in Japan.

over 12 million PS2's sold at this point.   VS about 15 million PS3+Wii's sold.

Even if you assume everyone who had a PS3 had a PS2 and there is no cross console ownership, that leaves the Wii with 2/3rds the PS2's market share.

Something your overlooking is that the Wii has more games, and developed more new franchises.  Users can only spend so much money on so much product.  Final Fantasy is not a series that would have to worry about the emergence of the new Wii series.

Wii sells more games per user then the PS3 in Japan.  The real for the third parties is that the Wii audience is more divided due to new expierences.

Things like Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit and Super Mario Brothers Wii and such are going to take away from your midline franchises.  Not Final Fantasy.

I'm using Famitsu data, but it was a typo (I meant 150k, though when SM3 finishes selling it'll probably be closer to 100k)...

• Shin Sangoku Musou 5 (PS3) 371,443
• Sengoku Musou 3 (Wii) 227,154

...and looking at the previous installments...

• Shin Sangoku Musou 4 (PS2) 917,985
• Sengoku Musou 2 (PS2) 562,320

...again, you're not comparing like with like, Sengoku's always been the less popular series.  Even still, the series are closer than ever now, thanks to SM3 on Wii holding slightly better than SSM5 on PS3 (though both have had pretty huge declines).  Gundam Musou is based on one of the most popular licenses in Japan, it was a projected million seller even (though obviously fell well short of that).  It'd have probably been a near million seller had it launched on PS2 though.

Also, your Outbreak comparison is confusing.  The games are fundamentally different (and Outbreak is far, far closer to the "mainline" formula in terms of mechanics and presentation), what you should be comparing are the lightgunners... Famitsu data again..

• Biohazard: GunSurvivor (PS1) 288,623
• Biohazard: The Umbrella Chronicles (Wii) 273,791
• GunSurvivor 2: Biohazard Code: Veronica (PS2) 118,747
• GunSurvivor 4: Biohazard: Heroes Never Die (PS2) 40,662
• Biohazard: The Umbrella Chronicles (BEST Price) (Wii) 26,549

And finally, here's Famitsu Fatal Fatal frame data for you...

• Zero IV (Wii) 73,449
• Zero III (PS2) 69,147
• Zero II (PS2) 64,450
• Zero (PS2) 42,195
• Zero SE (XB) 2,481

...your original claim seems rather badly researched and bit off the mark.  Hope this helps. <3

Er, I'm not going to argue with your point, but this is a terrible example.  The PS2 port of RE4 was announced before the GC version released even, it totally killed it's sales potential since pretty much everyone already had a PS2.  Had the port not been announced, I think you'd have seen a ratio split more in line with what we saw for Tales of Symphonia (did 323k GC, 394k PS2).

Final Fantasy (since VII) is a cinematic game franchise - I expect cinematic games to do better on the HD consoles

This same statement could've been made in reference to the ps2, yet all these franchises sold far better there than they do on the Wii.  On the ps2 there was a endless avalanche of new games to play in Japan, yet these franchises still managed to make names for themselves.  There's more to this than there simply being more games to choose from on Wii.

We don't seem to have any data for the lightgun series in our database, which is why I went for the only other Resident Evil spin-off I could think of.  It was a rather ill chosen comparison, I agree.

Keep in mind that with older lightgun games you actually had to buy the lightgun in addition to the game.  With the Wii, you simply use the standard controller, which is why lightgun games have shown far greater success on the Wii than ever before.  The Time Crisis series did pretty well on the ps1 and ps2, but that was the only big thing since Duck Hunt.  The Wii's success in this regard has little bearing on where the Resident Evil fanbase now lies.

This is an excellent point, and one that I had completely forgotten about.  It basically invalidates the example I used.

It couldn't of been said on the PS2.  In fact I was comparing it to the PS2 in this comment.

There was nothing like the emergence of the Wii franchise on the PS2.  A franchise that actually created entire new ways to play and new genres.

The Wii has everything the PS2 did + completly new types of games that have become huge hits.

PS2 owners who now own the Wii basically have to either decide to buy less "mid level franchises" to try the new Wii franchises or spend more money... or both.  Not to mention the return of mainline Nintendo games.

Here is something to consider.

Take a look at the top selling games on the PS2.

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?&results=50&name=&console=PS2&keyword=&publisher=&genre=&order=Sales&boxart=Both&showdeleted=&region=Japan&alphasort=

Now take a look at the top selling Wii games.

http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?&results=50&name=&console=Wii&keyword=&publisher=&genre=&order=Sales&boxart=Both&showdeleted=&region=Japan&alphasort=

The Wii has 12 games that have already sold 1 million copies in japan.

The PS2 has a total of 18 games that have sold 1 million copies japan.

The Wii has only sold 9 Million consoles so far... the Wii will CRUSH the PS2 in million sellers in Japan by the end of this generation... despite the reality that it's going to sell less consoles then the PS2.  The games market in Japan isn't depressed.  It's larger then ever.

Why?  The new franchises and new games invogorate sales.  Even so... the Wii can only sell so many games.

Final Fantasy is not a game that would have to worry about this.