Took me a few days to do this, but with enough work, I think I've figured it
out.
Incase anyone knows, there is no such formal tracking service for XBLA sales.
We've never seen any rock-hard numbers from anyone inside Microsoft.
Nevertheless, we've known it has been, and is very lucrative for the companies that
have invested in it: so much so that it seems every week, a new project is
greenlighted (I believe there are well over 50 games scheduled for release within
the next 6 months, with the vast majority being new IPs rather than redux of
old games).
So exactly how lucrative is it, and what games sell well? Well, I'll get to
that in a moment before I explain my methodology.
"Major" Larry Hyrb "Nelson", as he's called releases weekly XBLA updates on
forthcoming titles, as well as sales charts in terms of most played/downloaded,
but like Chart Track, never gives numbers. When asked about it he always has
cited Mygamercard.net as a great barometer of sales.
So I got to thinking: exactly how accurate could it be to extrapolate figures
from there? Real close, appearently.
Consider this: 36% of Xbox 360 owners have downloaded a XBLA arcade game.
Having said this, Mygamercard net tracks roughly 11.5% of the Xbox 360 owners.
For consideration, VGC tracks roughly 3-5% of retailers to get their data, so
you can refference just how accurate this possibly can be.
And if your wondering if this is just screwy ideas by me, remember, I
succuessfully tracked Forza Motorsports hitting the 1m sold/shipped mark within 2
weeks of actuality, with a near-100% tracking rate on the ratio of US/CAN sales
to European sales. It works, folks. Even with hard-copy games. XBLA games are
even easier to track, since MGC tracks probably close to 25% of total XBL
gamers, if not more.
Also, before I get to the top 10 (I have 96 games tracked, btw), one might
ask "how lucrative"? Consider:
#1. An Xbox Live Arcade game, even a new IP is incredibly cheap. I
interviewed a developer about exact costs, and I was able to get some figures.
Appearently a new IP, using a unique, in-house engine, costs *about* $300,000-$600,000
between building, certification, and such. Ports are most likely alot cheaper (such as missle command), and I am sure that some of the higher-end IPs are indeed more, such as Geometry Wars and Street Fighter.
#2. Profit margins are much, much higher on a typical basis than retail-side
games. A $59.99 game in the US might net a developer 60%, with less and less
later on due to price reductions, and lack of shipments (as well as losses for
products unsold). A typical developer makes 70 to 80% on their product on XBLA.
#3. Sales, like on VC, are perpetual. Microsoft has shown in a recent chart,
that a game, even after 16+ months on the market, still sells 3-5% of it's
total revenue each month. The first 2 months only garner 33% of the total sales,
and even old launch-type games still sell.
So the top:20
Name | Est. Sales | Price (MSP) | Revenue | Date of Release | |
Texas Hold'em* | 822,019 | $10.00 (800) | $8,220,190 | 8/23/2006 | |
Uno* ' | 1,019,633 | $10.00 (800) | $5,098,167 | 5/09/2006 | |
Bankshot Billiards 2*^ | 267,383 | $15.00 (1200) | $4,010,749 | 11/22/2005 | |
Worms HD | 387,277 | $10.00 (800) | $3,872,770 | 3/07/2007 | |
Marble Blast Ultra* | 327,905 | $10.00 (800) | $3,279,057 | 1/25/2006 | |
Doom | 293,268 | $10.00 (800) | $2,932,683 | 9/27/2006 | |
Castlevainia: SOTN | 282,735 | $10.00 (800) | $2,827,358 | 3/21/2007 | |
Geometry Wars Evolved* | 562,239 | $5.00 (400) | $2,811,198 | 11/22/2005 | |
Street Fighter 2: HF | 280,608 | $10.00 (800) | $2,806,083 | 8/02/2006 | |
Ultimate Mortal Kombat 3 | 270,811 | $10.00 (800) | $2,708,118 | 10/21/2006 | |
Pinball FX | 220,418 | $10.00 (800) | $2,204,180 | 4/25/2007 | |
Small Arms^ | 215,435 | $10.00 (800) | $2,154,350 | 11/22/2006 | |
Bomberman Live | 214,128 | $10.00 (800) | $2,141,288 | 7/18/2007 | |
TMNT 1989 | 382,776 | $5.00 (400) | $1,913,882 | 3/14/2007 | |
Lumines! Live^ | 148,428 | $15.00* (1200) | $1,855,356 | 10/18/2006 | |
Assault Heroes | 178,340 | $10.00 (800) | $1,783,403 | 12/13/2006 | |
Heavy Weapon | 169,402 | $10.00 (800) | $1,694,028 | 1/17/2007 | |
Feeding Frenzy* | 167,794 | $10.00 (800) | $1,677,940 | 3/15/2006 | |
3d Ultra Minigolf | 167,461 | $10.00 (800) | $1,674,613 | 4/18/2007 | |
Cloning Clyde | 149,182 | $10.00 (800) | $1,491,820 | 7/19/2006 |
* Included in "Xbox Live Unplugged: Vol #1"
^ Small Arms and Bankshot Billiards 2 had a "sale" on their IPs for 1 day (Sept 2nd for SA, 24th for BB2) in which prices were reduced 400 MSP, and 300 MSP respectively. Lumnies! Live's price was reduced permanantly to 800 MSP on 10/17/2007. For price, I used the median ($12.50) for sales.
Also, if anyone wanted to request numbers for any given game, just let me know. I worked a whole day on getting the other 76 titles not counted. Remember, I sorted out the trial data for this, and only used valid cards with achievements (since that negates the trials), which gives a much better look.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.