Xbox Live Arcade Sales - Top 20

[mrstickball]

Took me a few days to do this, but with enough work, I think I've figured it
out.


Incase anyone knows, there is no such formal tracking service for XBLA sales.
We've never seen any rock-hard numbers from anyone inside Microsoft.
Nevertheless, we've known it has been, and is very lucrative for the companies that
have invested in it: so much so that it seems every week, a new project is
greenlighted (I believe there are well over 50 games scheduled for release within
the next 6 months, with the vast majority being new IPs rather than redux of
old games).

So exactly how lucrative is it, and what games sell well? Well, I'll get to
that in a moment before I explain my methodology.

"Major" Larry Hyrb "Nelson", as he's called releases weekly XBLA updates on
forthcoming titles, as well as sales charts in terms of most played/downloaded,
but like Chart Track, never gives numbers. When asked about it he always has
cited Mygamercard.net as a great barometer of sales.

So I got to thinking: exactly how accurate could it be to extrapolate figures
from there? Real close, appearently.

Consider this: 36% of Xbox 360 owners have downloaded a XBLA arcade game.
Having said this, Mygamercard net tracks roughly 11.5% of the Xbox 360 owners. 
For consideration, VGC tracks roughly 3-5% of retailers to get their data, so
you can refference just how accurate this possibly can be.

And if your wondering if this is just screwy ideas by me, remember, I
succuessfully tracked Forza Motorsports hitting the 1m sold/shipped mark within 2
weeks of actuality, with a near-100% tracking rate on the ratio of US/CAN sales
to European sales. It works, folks. Even with hard-copy games. XBLA games are
even easier to track, since MGC tracks probably close to 25% of total XBL
gamers, if not more.


Also, before I get to the top 10 (I have 96 games tracked, btw), one might
ask "how lucrative"? Consider:

#1. An Xbox Live Arcade game, even a new IP is incredibly cheap. I
interviewed a developer about exact costs, and I was able to get some figures.
Appearently a new IP, using a unique, in-house engine, costs *about* $300,000-$600,000
between building, certification, and such. Ports are most likely alot cheaper (such as missle command), and I am sure that some of the higher-end IPs are indeed more, such as Geometry Wars and Street Fighter.

#2. Profit margins are much, much higher on a typical basis than retail-side
games. A $59.99 game in the US might net a developer 60%, with less and less
later on due to price reductions, and lack of shipments (as well as losses for
products unsold). A typical developer makes 70 to 80% on their product on XBLA.

#3. Sales, like on VC, are perpetual. Microsoft has shown in a recent chart,
that a game, even after 16+ months on the market, still sells 3-5% of it's
total revenue each month. The first 2 months only garner 33% of the total sales,
and even old launch-type games still sell.

So the top:20

Name	Est. Sales	Price (MSP)	Revenue	Date of Release
Texas Hold'em*	822,019	$10.00 (800)	$8,220,190	8/23/2006
Uno* '	1,019,633	$10.00 (800)	$5,098,167	5/09/2006
Bankshot Billiards 2*^	267,383	$15.00 (1200)	$4,010,749	11/22/2005
Worms HD	387,277	$10.00 (800)	$3,872,770	3/07/2007
Marble Blast Ultra*	327,905	$10.00 (800)	$3,279,057	1/25/2006
Doom	293,268	$10.00 (800)	$2,932,683	9/27/2006
Castlevainia: SOTN	282,735	$10.00 (800)	$2,827,358	3/21/2007
Geometry Wars Evolved*	562,239	$5.00 (400)	$2,811,198	11/22/2005
Street Fighter 2: HF	280,608	$10.00 (800)	$2,806,083	8/02/2006
Ultimate Mortal Kombat 3	270,811	$10.00 (800)	$2,708,118	10/21/2006
Pinball FX	220,418	$10.00 (800)	$2,204,180	4/25/2007
Small Arms^	215,435	$10.00 (800)	$2,154,350	11/22/2006
Bomberman Live	214,128	$10.00 (800)	$2,141,288	7/18/2007
TMNT 1989	382,776	$5.00 (400)	$1,913,882	3/14/2007
Lumines! Live^	148,428	$15.00* (1200)	$1,855,356	10/18/2006
Assault Heroes	178,340	$10.00 (800)	$1,783,403	12/13/2006
Heavy Weapon	169,402	$10.00 (800)	$1,694,028	1/17/2007
Feeding Frenzy*	167,794	$10.00 (800)	$1,677,940	3/15/2006
3d Ultra Minigolf	167,461	$10.00 (800)	$1,674,613	4/18/2007
Cloning Clyde	149,182	$10.00 (800)	$1,491,820	7/19/2006

* Included in "Xbox Live Unplugged: Vol #1"

^ Small Arms and Bankshot Billiards 2 had a "sale" on their IPs for 1 day (Sept 2nd for SA, 24th for BB2) in which prices were reduced 400 MSP, and 300 MSP respectively. Lumnies! Live's price was reduced permanantly to 800 MSP on 10/17/2007. For price, I used the median ($12.50) for sales.

Also, if anyone wanted to request numbers for any given game, just let me know. I worked a whole day on getting the other 76 titles not counted. Remember, I sorted out the trial data for this, and only used valid cards with achievements (since that negates the trials), which gives a much better look.