Ladies and Gentlemen, we all know Gran Turismo 5 will be a sexy game as well as a sexy system seller.

After conducting a reasonable experiment, I have come to the conclusion that GT5 will sell 2.4 million week one. The following week it will sell 800k, with very strong legs. Not only that but GT5 will manage 7 million+ in 2010 alone while LT I have a good feeling that it could surpass 11 million. 

Thats not all though; on the week of GT5's release, PS3 will manage over 600k and this will be the factor thats blocks the 360 from ever touching PS3 again in EU. This is only the low end.

All of this was based off GT5 releasing in August 2010.

And for anyone doubting that GT5 will not do well in NA, look at the Americas pre-orders chart. GT5 ranks 13th currently sitting at 44k with around 6-7 months to go. The game will definitely be big in NA.

 Sexy ass cover.

This is how I expect it to sell week one:


Worst case scenario:

Japan: 500k
North America: 500k
Others: 1m

Total first week: 2m
Hardware on week of release: 400k



Best case scenario:

Japan: 600k
North America: 700k
Others: 1.4m

Total first week: 2.7m
Hardware on week of release: 550k

1.5 mil Japan LT 1st week - 900k
2,4 mil America LT 1st week - 500k
6 mil Others LT 1st week - 1,5 mil

Hardware on week of release: 500k

All - 10 mil LT & 1st week will be - 2,9 mil...and I thik and hope...GT5 releasing in April or may 2010...

this game will have massive legs along with a massive first week which will boost ps3 hardware sales for that week massively AND not only will the game have legs the game will give legs to ps3 hardware by at least 10-20k (not counting the normal numbers) a week on the driest of the days well IMO :P

For some reason I can't see GT5 going above 8 mil lifetime. I really hope I'm proved wrong, wrong, dead wrong.

We'll see.

Whats your 1st week predictions?

Well it wont be simultaneous, but adding up the staggered week 1 launches, I see roughly something like

JP: ~500K
EU: ~2M
NA: ~700K

I love GT5 and it's a day one buy for me, and I know historically the series has sold amazingly well, but I just can't see 10M.

edit: Gonna say 1.5M for EU after looking up prev GTs in the database.

GT5 will be directly responsible for selling 1.5 million PS3s over time. Why do I say that? I think there are about 1.5 million GT fans from the days of PS1&2 who chose either the 360 or Wii as their console for this generation. Probably most of them the 360 for FM2&3. But not all, because some GT fans would be like Ford vs GM (Holden for the Aussies & Kiwis here) fans and would simply refuse to drive the opposition, those fans would go with the Wii.

Some of those 1.5 million would have sworn off Playstation for good for reasons we all know...but they won't be able to resist the allure of GT5. Most will have simply bided their time playing and enjoying the other less expensive system(s) until PS3 price comes down and GT5 comes out, then they will get on board with PS3. (Face it a GT nut has very little reason to buy a PS3 until GT5 comes out, and I don't think GT5P brought many of them in).

Those 1.5 million won't all buy PS3's at the same time of course, lots will buy in the first 2-3 weeks after GT5 release but many will buy PS3 in their own good time over a longer time period. In the grand scheme of things 1.5 million is impressive for a single game title, but it isn't something that will totally change the fortunes of a console.

A 2 million + first week is practically a given, FFXIII managed close to that in Japan alone and I think it will pass 3 million as well but maybe not by much.
As for lifetime sales, this is the toughie, GT games have the kind of legs that only GT games have and it is not unreasonable at all to assume that lifetime sales will be 300% of first week. Could even be more.
Its hard to align it with previous games since they always arrived in Japan first (but generally did way above 500k week one in Japan alone) but one thing is for certain; it will undoubtedly be the highest selling PS3 exclusive ever and very probably the highest selling PS3 game overall.

Is there a release date for this yet? That would vastly help the ability of my prediction knowing what time of year it'll be happening in.