Natal will be a hyped up Eyetoy, and (probably) fail within a year or two. Any Natal exclusive games will probably only be offered by XBL anyway.

*at this point* no. Nothing has proven the technology yet. It has no Wii Sports.

E3 will probably be the final proof of concept.

At this point, no. There are no games yet.

At this point? No way. There hasn't even been a game announced for it yet -- just sneak peeks at tech demos.

Unless there's a killer Natal app, I won't be getting it. What would be the point, without the software to back it up?

No, downloadables is Sony's plan for Gem.  Microsoft's putting their priority on retail releases.

Not yet, but I know people who would. The EyeToy could not actually sense you, you could infact just us a stick to play EyeToy games.

Most retail games will cost $59.99 b/c of distribution, packaging, marketing, required for retail games.  I dont think that people will pay $59.99 for a casual.  Or, they could just charge $30 for a decent casual on XBL, and not make retailers risk buying into something that might take a while to get up to speed.   

The choice in this decision is obvious.

I'll be buying a 360 next weekend but I don't see any use or excitement in Natal at all.

I don't really see the point of it. It looks like those games at dave and busters. If you want to play natal it actually already exists, go try it.

There are a few game types. One has you kicking a soccer ball at a virtual goalie and is somewhat entertaining. one lets you play fighting games like Tekken, but with actual punches and kicks. What you quickly find is that you are way too slow (in fact almost any human is way too slow) to do well in these kinds of games. It is just infinitely faster to press A then it is to kick or punch. Much like in a real fight, the slow speed of movement makes counters quite easy.

Anyone who has played punch out for the Wii using the balance board has a good idea of what I'm talking about on that last point. The later fights are so twitch based its almost impossible to dodge in time, or differentiate right between a dodge and a lean for gameplay purposes.

I mean it would be fun for diversionary little mini games to play with casual gamers. Wii sports resort is perfect for that kidn of thing. My non gaming cousin comes out to visit, I hook up my Wii for the first time in months, we play at waterskiing or archery for an hour or two and then the Wii goes back into the closet. I really have a very hard time seeing where Natal advances beyond the Wii, in particular the Wii motion plus with the balance board. What is lauded as "natural" here is actually quite clumsy in practice.

Now if you could create actual virtual environments where you move around and interact with objects that exist in 3D space thats something entirely different. I would buy a serious VR headset with a machine set up for letting you walk and move in a confined space in a second. Its not that I don't see interaction that is more direct then a controller as a step forward, its mainly that flailing around towards a 2D space doesn't seem particularly useful. I'm almost certainly more interested in seeing how 3D games work on the PS3 (its apparently "forward compatible" for 3D both movies and games) with or without a motion controller though even that doesn't excite me all that much especially if it includes glasses. I wasn't excited at all for 3D, but after seeing Avatar I'm giving it a second thought