This thread pointed out the absurdity of the predictions by one site dedicated to videogame industry professionals:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=97392&page=1

The predictions didn't even included Wii games in sales (and have Gran Turismo being less than Mass Effect 2? and don't even include Fable 3).  Apparently these apparent experts don't even know that the Wii exists.  Anyhow, this being said, it made me think of this forum.  I believe if you were to use data and opinions by people on here, and filter out some niche clique titles that individuals hype up (like Valk Chronicles and Demon's Souls), you could have superior predictions on sales figures, and what game will be a top seller.  Anyhow, has ioi given any thought to this?  That thread makes me think about how much the industry experts seriously don't have a clue.  They don't seem to even know what actually people play, or want to play, but rely on other data.

Anyone else agree with this?

Well, it has been said by some that there actually are some very good video game market analysts out there, they just don't let us plebes see their precious data.

There might not be many of them on gameindustry.biz. I get the feeling a lot of those 'experts' are programmers and the enthusiast press. They probably skew towards the Xbox, don't actually pay much attention to sales beyond NPD's top ten, and are genuinely more excited for Mass Effect 2 than GT5.

I have no doubt that ioi and The Source have the skills they need to make some good money as analysts... If they aren't already.

Oh well I already know I can make loads of better predictions than most of the analysts out there but hey what ya gonna do about it. But what I always say about sales, is they are unpredictable and random. Meaning it doesn't matter how much effort and time anyone puts into it, we'll never get it right haha.

But I still think I and many others on this site could easily do a better (and less biased) job than a hell of a lot of those analysts. Too many outside interests involved with their predictions that they probably wouldn't like to have disclosed haha.

I have no idea if they could...

Collective opinions... it was not made by a single professional but by many people.

And we all know that colective opinions are always dumb.

So everyone's combined prediction might make it out to the industry? :O

Actually, there is something called "The Delphi Effect" that has been shown that a collection of opinions by experts is superior to the opinion of one.  The idea is to have people who have a clue make predictions, not people who don't have a clue. 

You might want to run something like intrade does:  http://www.intrade.com/

Here  people "wager" on predictions, and like they have betting lines in Vegas, where the line ends up is usually more accurate a predictor than other methodologies.  I believe if there is a sufficient sample size, with the right mix, you can do something better than what we have been seeing like the recent thread on here pointed out.  Combine this, with other methodologies, and you have a chance to end up with something that would work real well.  Key would be to filter and weight things properly.

The most accurate predictions come from the Users here.

And ioi will face more criticism, which would including MAKING UP future sales numbers.  Yes, I predict some flak there.  They will completely ignore how much off the likes of Pachter is, because HEY he is a "professional".

I personally would rather see a properly balanced set of predictions based on what goes on here, than the comments of the likes of Pachter.  Individuals who were THAT much off individually about the Wii, should be taken with a grain of salt.