If 3rd party games sold better on the Wii, Big N would probably be even more ahead than they are now. Next gen, Sony will have their wand and MS have Natal so I think it will be a unpredictable new race from the beginning.

One of the key differences next gen is that third parties will not be able to ignore Nintendo as they did this time round. They dare not.

That will make for a much more level playing field, but which way it will swing is anyone's guess.

NATAL and sony's wand is not going to do much for them fracturing the userbase with addons has never been a good move just ask Sega. sure it may have some impact with heavy marketing but developers are not going to throw major money at a peripheral that is going to have only a fraction of the host consoles userbase. And Microsoft can only buy so many games.

Well to be honest I thought it was blindingly obvious as well buy my post was in response to ones like yours in which I figured some people had not learned a damn thing from this generation's rankings.

Your post for example mentioned brand name and possibly having the biggest jump in graphics as reasons you think Nintendo couldl be first next generation, you know the exact same things the Playstation 3 had going for it coming into this generation.

It's not like I'm a mind reader that can sift through reasoning like that and leap to the conclusion that you learned anything about this generation's rankings.  Sometimes it requires that you show that you might have a clue.

It could go either way. Problems with something different is that it is also a bigger chance for a flop. As long as that something different doesn't cost much, it doesn't matter much assuming the core features are there. So Nintenmdo has a good chance, but worse case they will be a minor flop but still have a profit.

The PS3 has the best potential to last longer (last to come to next generation). That can be risky as it gives others a head start. Look what the year advantage the 360 gave this gen.

Microsoft always does poorly on their 1.x launches. However, they are good at learning from their mistakes.

The biggest factor will likely be which one gets the best third party support. There is always the chance price or some new feature will make the difference, but generally it's whichever will gain the most 3rd party support... Now systems have such overkill, and more cross platform engines, it's possible they will all have good support.

Three things:

- I did say graphics, but I also said it's uncertain that that's important

- I also mentioned that the important thing is the surprise factor. Sony and MS seem to be upgrading their consoles more in this gen, which may mean they don't have big secrets in store for the next gen. That's something you forgot or didn't read in my post.

- Nintendo is very unlikely to screw up in the way that Sony did. Sure, they can find other ways to screw up, which is why I didn't say I was sure Nintendo's gonna win. I just gave the most likely scenario according to my view (which you didn't).

I think that about covers it.

Possibly
1. Sony
2. Nintendo
3. Xbox 3

But I hope Nintendo wins the next one as well since MS won't.

Next gen

1. Wii 2 - Around 40% share

2. PS4 - Like 35% share

3. Xbox 720 - Remaining 25% share

Even though Nintendo wins again, Sony and Microsoft will both be profitable (Sony more then MS).

Next, next gen

1. Playstation 5 - 60% share

2. Nintendo console - 25% share

3. Xbox 1080 - 15% share