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Forums - Sales Discussion - predict the sales of the wii, ps3 and x360 this year.

 

predict the sales of the wii, ps3 and x360 this year.

agree with my estimates 45 49.45%
 
disagree 46 50.55%
 
Total:91

^And yet this year only dropped 2 million from last year when all is said and done, and in December rose yoy, so why would it drop another 5 million next year? Why would it drop more than twice as much as it did this year even though momentum is actually picking up at the moment?

You keep saying you want to know, this is why, your prediction has no basis whatsoever, you have nothing to support it, its a very bad, very funny prediction.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Who cares if the fiscal numbers don't yield 15 million, I want to put down how much its off by when I update, also why do you care when I update?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Only dropped 2 million? That's quite a lot you know, what's to keep it from dropping further yoy? Wii Motion +, a price cut, NSBWii, Wii Sports Resort, limited edition colors were supposed to make it drastically rise yoy in 2009 but instead it went down by 9-10%. The Challenger was also on its way up when it left the ramp but that didn't go so well (to put in bluntly and exaggerate a little), it is quite naive to think that the momentum from NSMBWii will drive hardware sales several million up compared to last year, it'd be pure magic.

"You keep saying you want to know, this is why, your prediction has no basis whatsoever", what does this sentence even mean? What does my wanting you to point out where and how I've been incredibly stupid and "funny" all along have to do with my current predictions? I don't think I've been that stupid and funny at all actually and I made some pretty solid predictions for 2009 that came true. If you want to render all my points moot you'll have to show the world how silly my predictions are and have always been, simply saying "lol, ur so silly" is, well, silly.

PS: I don't care when you update, I just don't see the difference is all.



It's hard to tell because we don't know what games will be released at the end of next year.
I'll go with
wii- 19,000,000
360- 12,000,000
ps3- 11,500,000



Wii- 19-20 mil. I predict that the wii will be at the high end of 19 mil or the low end of 20 mil. It won't have the software drought that 2009 had. Vitality Sensor will be a wild card. We could see new colors worldwide.

PS3- 13.5 mil. Ps3 will continue to increase thanks to slim, pricecut and good lineup.

Xbox360- 9.75 mil (Dunno)



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I'm going to say 12 million for both PS3 and 360.



Wii - 19,000,000
PS3 - 15,000,000
360 - 9,000,000



Wii: 23 Million (NSMB Wii will help keep the momentum going for quite awhile and give it that extra push over 2009's numbers)

PS3: 11 Million

360: 10 Million



Wii - 20m
PS3 - 13m
X360 - 9m



I'll throw some quick guesses I suppose. Tough when we have so little info to go by, but here goes:

Wii - 21.5mil
No doubt the Wii had its best December this year, but it had a horrific Q2-Q3. From the beginning of April to the end of September, it sold only slightly more than 5mil, or ~210k/wk (in 2008 it did over 9mil). I expect the Wii to be nearly flat in Q1, but up significantly Q2-Q3 on the strength of 09's evergreens, $200 price point, and 2010's new releases. It'll be down in Q4, but with help from Wii Vitality / Zelda, it will manage to maintain its sales lead YoY.

X360 - 10.5mil
The 360 will perform worse than its 2009 during most of the year, but will shine in the final quarter (similar to 2008). With Natal, a potential price cut, and Halo Reach, its Q4 will be monstrous, over 5 million total. It will finish the year in a stronger position than the PS3 for early 2011, slowly reclaiming the ground it lost in early 2010.

PS3 - 11.5mil
The PS3 will have a very strong lead early next year, on the strength of the recent "Slim," $100 price cut, and the releases of GT5 / God of War 3. All of this combined may cut the 360 lead down to as little as 3mil, as it'll be up YoY as high as 30% until September. From late Q3 on, the PS3 will start to see major YoY losses, particularly in Americas/Japan, due to lack of a price cut and stronger 360 sales.