Interesting analysis... and with some of the publisher openly stating more support for HD consoles and PS3 n X360 gaining Wii like functionality i think competition is going to be fierce and appeal of Wii is not going to be so jaw dropping for families.

But i still think Sony needs to step up PS3 advertisement... they need to have more great ads and more hype and more directed advertisement to achieve 10% increase over this yr performance.

The PS3 will be up early this year just like the 360 in 2009, what the ps3 hold for us later in the year is quite unknown though.

oh so 360 will STILL beat PS3 in US....well that is expected, nothing shocking at all if it happens

@khuutie

yes its for america only

Just like in 2009 it had a 100 $ price reduction, killzone 2, uncharted 2, assassins creed 2 and other additional good software. To me it looks like the ps3 is a little short on cards to gain that 10% growth.

i really think that people are over estimating  the significance of both FF13 and GT5 in america, these games have never been incredible sellers and hw movers in NA, more like moderate. both series make a killing worldwide but lately have seen lower sales than 6-8 years ago. It may actually just be like with most PS3 big hitters that they sell less than was expected at first (kz2, uncharted2 etc) but still sold well.

@Psrock and Darth

Perhaps I should have read the article before jumping the gun. In hindsight, it was quite stupid not to read a short article. It must've been one of those impulsive "first to post" moments lol.

A 10% gain in sales is definitely possible for ps3. I thought he meant 10% gain in marketshare. I'm not too sure I agree that the 360 and wii will decline though. If anything, the 360 should see a raise due to natal even if it turns out to be temporary (supposing natal flops).

When I see the "%" sign on this site, my mind defaults to marketshare.

PS3 should certainly see an increase as it's first half sales in '10 will definitely beat the first half of '09. GT, GoWIII and FFXIII should all help boost sales too. Second half will probably be lower than '09 but up over all YoY.

I expect a decline in 360 sales at least until a price cut and/or Natal. Then it could see a significant boost. Too early to say how much NATAL will change the game though.

Wii is hard to say. It's back up at the moment. NSMBW will continue to sell really well. Nintendo has SMG2, M:oM and Zelda Wii all in '10 but I don't see any of those pushing hardware sales as that market already has Wiis but any hold-out GC fans will definitely be aboard at least. Vitality Sensor games may increase hardware sales if they create new buzz. Again too early to tell. Black Wiis in NA could help as well. A decline is certainly possible, even probably but I think 20% is too much.

Maybe its just me but I think the vitality sensor game is going to be something like a "Lie-Detector Party Game" which could be enormously fun and it would certainly be a new experience. That's probably the type of thing Nintendo needs along with Zelda for Oct-Dec 2010 to hit ~3.5m-4.5m in October-December.

That said, I think hardware has peaked in 2008-2009. So for the USA market in 2010 I have this:

DS - 8.75m  (-18%) (ahead of 2007, below 2008-2009)

Wii - 7.85m (-12%) (ahead of 2007, below 2009)

PS3 - 3.85m (-9%) (ahead of 2009 until September-Dec)

X360 - 4.00m (-19%) (behind 2009 all year - but less so with Natal over Christmas)

PSP - 2.00m (-20%) (behind 2009, worst year - could be worse if PSP 3000/ PSP Go don't get a price cut)

PS2 - 1.25m (-31%) (worst year, becoming irrelevant)

I think we get PSP, X360, and PS3 price cuts by Summer time. PS2..Sony may just leave it at $100 until it stops selling. Wii/DS will probably see a price cut if needed in the fall. Could see PSP alot lower if DS2 or PSP2 is introduced in 2010 in the USA. But I suspect both are coming in 2011 in the west rather than in 2010.

I keep hearing rumors that X360 will be bundled with Natal for $200 as a sku starting sometime between E3 and November...its success should depend on games but it might force Nintendo to cut price to $100-$150 if it works. That said, some of the momentum may be blunted by Gem and whatever the Vitality Sensor ends up being.

Is it possible you're underestimating the impact of FF13 and GT5?  Even though they're "sequels", it'll be the first appearance on the PS3.  Even with these games, there's still the undertow of bluray adoption that could help drive PS3 sales.  So 10% increase doesn't seem out of line.

Yes the Wii is going to decline 20% in the year that starts with a holiday boost from New SMB Wii, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, and a price cut, and later gets a new 3-D Mario, Metroid, and Motion+ Zelda, when compared to a year that started with a holiday boost from Animal Crossing and Wii Music.

In other news, I am about to eat the sun.

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