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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - MWR: the core market didnt shift

Reasonable said:
I think the consoles have very different demographics and that's that. A CoD title on Wii can be profitable, no doubt about it, but the market for it is a fraction of that on PS3/360. The ratio between Wii owners wanting a CoD game and PS3/360 owners wanting a CoD game is huge.

On the flip side, look at the demand on the Wii for titles like Wii Sports, Mario, etc. and compare that to say Banjo on 360 or Ratchet and Clank on PS3.

The bottom line is that if you really had to chose where to invest, for a title like CoD it wouldn't be the Wii. This doesn't make the Wii doomed, but it does explain certain opinions and views of developers and analysts.

In reality, if it's profitable to add another 1.5 M units of a franchise on Wii to sales of over 10M on PS3/360 then hopefully developers will say why not and make such games available to those who would clearly like to receive them, but in terms of general analysis the much smaller Wii sales are going to be judged somewhat harshly (arguably incorrectly as this simplifies the demographic position).

Very good post, though it could be argued that with the media frenzy from various games for the 360 and PS3 helped create those FPS markets, which really the only FPS on Wii that had a real budget for ads was The Conduit and to a lesser extent CoD W@W.  Which in turn the same could be said about Super Mario being promoted like crazy on Wii which is now breaking sales records, and games like R&C aren't and weren't promoted to help create those markets on HD consoles.

I think its reasonable to say as long as people own a console they'll typically still buy games for said console even if they own a PS3 and 360 as well.  So even if the "hardcore" market for Wii shifted to PS3 and 360, they'd still like to buy games on their Wii if its something that appeals to them.  Also that its never too late to help create markets on these consoles it just needs pushes in both media and software, not these "test" games with no marketing, the customers will come if you put some strategic marketing with good teams making solid games on any console.



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@pariz and @MaxwellGT2000

Agreed. As a Wii owner I want both the 'traditional' Wii games plus games like Dead Space, Silent Hill, etc. and so long as they are profitable (which they clearly can be) then I would hope developers would support this. I can understand if they decide to solely focus on the platform that supports certain genres better, but I would find it disappointing.

The issue I feel is the rather simplistic interpretation many have of the performance of such games.

So many seem to look at say CoD sales on Wii vs HD versions and go 'fail' instead of deciding if the sales are good or not respective to true potential Wii audience. Just because the Wii has the bigger install base doesn't mean it automatically has a bigger demand per major genre.

As you say Maxwell, a lot of this is perception which has now been somewhat 'set in stone' by the press, gaming sites, etc. as to what games you get on what console. In the end the only games and image that I see being re-enforced for the Wii are family games and exercise. You just don't see images telling you that its okay to play Silent Hill on the game, too, for example.

I don't see this reversing now though, so I think for better or worse we're stuck with the split of certain games/expectations across the Wii and the HD consoles.

Actually, having just said that, when the Wand/Natal launch they will potentially re-set some expectations, and ideally that would also be a good time for the Wii to get a re-set itself in terms of having strong games in genres not associated with the Wii to the same extent.



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Reasonable said:
I think the consoles have very different demographics and that's that. A CoD title on Wii can be profitable, no doubt about it, but the market for it is a fraction of that on PS3/360. The ratio between Wii owners wanting a CoD game and PS3/360 owners wanting a CoD game is huge.

On the flip side, look at the demand on the Wii for titles like Wii Sports, Mario, etc. and compare that to say Banjo on 360 or Ratchet and Clank on PS3.

The bottom line is that if you really had to chose where to invest, for a title like CoD it wouldn't be the Wii. This doesn't make the Wii doomed, but it does explain certain opinions and views of developers and analysts.

In reality, if it's profitable to add another 1.5 M units of a franchise on Wii to sales of over 10M on PS3/360 then hopefully developers will say why not and make such games available to those who would clearly like to receive them, but in terms of general analysis the much smaller Wii sales are going to be judged somewhat harshly (arguably incorrectly as this simplifies the demographic position).

As far as CoD games go, you also have to remember that the Wii version was never on equal footing with the PS360 versions, so it's hard to draw a direct comparison.

 

Call of Duty 3: The Wii version was based off the PS2 version and didn't have online multiplayer, period.  If memory serves (and according to vgchartz), the Wii version actually outsold the PS3 version by a fair margin, but nobody seems to remember or care.

Call of Duty: World at War: The Wii version's multiplayer was heavily gimped compared to the PS360 versions (drastically lower multiplayer limit, no vehicles, fewer gameplay modes, no Nazi Zombies, etc).  And it still sold more than a million.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare: Although this one turned out to be a reasonably faithful analogue of the PS360 versions (albeit with lower multiplayer limit), the Wii version was released two years behind the PS360 versions, with absolutely no advertising support.  It also had to compete against its own successor being released on the PS360 at the same time, which received absurd amounts of advertising support.

 

In fact, looking at what was done with the Wii version of CoD games, it's not that much of a stretch to say that Activision's been actively sabotaging their own efforts.



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If everyone who wants to play this type of game already has another platform -- as some publishers say -- and the game is two years old, then should it not have sold 0 (zero) copies.

If you build a good game and sell it, it can sell on the Wii. But since the audience is different, too many people are wanting to just write it off.

Mike from Morgantown



      


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Kenny said:

In fact, looking at what was done with the Wii version of CoD games, it's not that much of a stretch to say that Activision's been actively sabotaging their own efforts.

This is pretty key.  Compare the ways Activision nurtured Guitar Hero on Wii (always day-and-date release, grew to feature competitive in just 1 year, well advertised and promoted) versus what they've done with COD and the results speak for themselves.  I sort of doubt COD ever could've led on Wii like GH does now, but I think it could've maintained sales on par with the PS3 version (meaning an extra 3-5m+ each year, for relatively little investment).



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Reasonable said:
I think the consoles have very different demographics and that's that.


Very few people seem to want to admit that the demographics the Wii dominates in are very different.  The people that bought a Wii for Wii Fit are not going to go out and buy the latest Call of Duty game.  Games like Just Dance really bring that point home since it scored lower and had a similar advertising budget as many of the Wii core third-party games it is stomping in sales.  People can come up with excuses and blame the quality of a game or the advertising budget or whatever but demographics is the real reason why some games sell better than others when all other things are equal.



VictorG said:
Reasonable said:
I think the consoles have very different demographics and that's that.


Very few people seem to want to admit that the demographics the Wii dominates in are very different.  The people that bought a Wii for Wii Fit are not going to go out and buy the latest Call of Duty game.  Games like Just Dance really bring that point home since it scored lower and had a similar advertising budget as many of the Wii core third-party games it is stomping in sales.  People can come up with excuses and blame the quality of a game or the advertising budget or whatever but demographics is the real reason why some games sell better than others when all other things are equal.

This is true to a point, but it doesn't inherently discount other factors (like scoring, advertising, promotion, word of mouth, studio pedigree, etc).  The fact that Wii has been home to "core" 3rd party successes is proof of that, demographic uncertainty isn't an impossible obstacle. I think the problem really goes back to 2006/2007/2008, and the sorts of games Wii was getting... you have to build markets on any platform, and that's what basically the entire industry did previous on the market leader.  This generation though, so much investment was sunk into the HD twins upfront, that companies became overly cautious, slow to adjust and a lot of that vital "market building" that we should've had on Wii didn't materialize.  To make matters worse, the vast majority of "core" games fall into one or more "undesirable" categories with the targeted audience (ie: they're spinoffs, they're ports/remakes, they're niche genres, they're new IPs, etc) and get little to no additional push from the publishers.  I'm of the mind that it may largely be "too late" for Wii to become the new center for development for these sorts of games too, since the west is so entrenched in HD (sometimes to their peril) and Japan is firmly planted in DS development (an often unsung competitor to Wii imo).  It may actually be better for Nintendo to refocus 3rd party efforts on the Wii successor in a few years and make sure all the big brands are there day one instead.

I'm also curious which recent "core game" had a similar ad budget to Just Dance though, that thing has had nonstop television ads.  Possibly The Conduit, but nothing else really comes to mind (MadWorld, HotD Overkill, Silent Hill SM, Little King's Story, Muramasa, ABAHB, Rune Factory Frontier, Klonoa, Resident Evil DSC, Dead Space Extraction, MW Relfex, Spyborgs, etc, etc).



VictorG said:
Reasonable said:
I think the consoles have very different demographics and that's that.


Very few people seem to want to admit that the demographics the Wii dominates in are very different.  The people that bought a Wii for Wii Fit are not going to go out and buy the latest Call of Duty game.  Games like Just Dance really bring that point home since it scored lower and had a similar advertising budget as many of the Wii core third-party games it is stomping in sales.  People can come up with excuses and blame the quality of a game or the advertising budget or whatever but demographics is the real reason why some games sell better than others when all other things are equal.


nobody doubts wii has more MIXED demographics than the other 2 consoles. But that also means more chances of sucess with more varied titles than the other 2. Because of the mixed wii demographics, games like COD can find a big profit,with all the cons the publisher gave to the game, while still being a great platform for Lets dance sales. After all, Call of Duty Reflex(port) is making more profits than a higher budget NO PORTED Far Cry 2 did on the Playstation 3. Developers dont care where.They want money. 

You say demographics are different. COD3 sold better on Wii than PS3. That means obviously wi fit owners likd COD more than ps3 owners back then?If you ONLY think demographics matter, that would be your explanation.I find it a bit laughable to JUST rely on demographics for answers as why some wii core games sold better.

For example, Star Wars Force Unleashed saw the best sales on the wii rather than 360 OR PS3(unlike GHostbusters). What it says? Wii owners, or as you would like , WI fit owners  are more into Star Wars than PS3 owners, while PS3 owners are more into Ghostbusters.But i leave to you to wonder if there will be a Wii version of TFU 2.You think it wont be after these results?

Wii market is diverse and within it, theres a good, Smaller, but profitable core market.No more heroes 2 is a result.Is a reliable market if you give it good content, and is less crowded than the PS3 market where a load of expensive core games bomb in the competition where only big advertised games succeed.



intro94 said:
VictorG said:
Reasonable said:
I think the consoles have very different demographics and that's that.


Very few people seem to want to admit that the demographics the Wii dominates in are very different.  The people that bought a Wii for Wii Fit are not going to go out and buy the latest Call of Duty game.  Games like Just Dance really bring that point home since it scored lower and had a similar advertising budget as many of the Wii core third-party games it is stomping in sales.  People can come up with excuses and blame the quality of a game or the advertising budget or whatever but demographics is the real reason why some games sell better than others when all other things are equal.


nobody doubts wii has more MIXED demographics than the other 2 consoles. But that also means more chances of sucess with more varied titles than the other 2. Because of the mixed wii demographics, games like COD can find a big profit,with all the cons the publisher gave to the game, while still being a great platform for Lets dance sales. After all, Call of Duty Reflex(port) is making more profits than a higher budget NO PORTED Far Cry 2 did on the Playstation 3. Developers dont care where.They want money. 

You say demographics are different. COD3 sold better on Wii than PS3. That means obviously wi fit owners likd COD more than ps3 owners back then?If you ONLY think demographics matter, that would be your explanation.I find it a bit laughable to JUST rely on demographics for answers as why some wii core games sold better.

For example, Star Wars Force Unleashed saw the best sales on the wii rather than 360 OR PS3(unlike GHostbusters). What it says? Wii owners, or as you would like , WI fit owners  are more into Star Wars than PS3 owners, while PS3 owners are more into Ghostbusters.But i leave to you to wonder if there will be a Wii version of TFU 2.You think it wont be after these results?

Wii market is diverse and within it, theres a good, Smaller, but profitable core market.No more heroes 2 is a result.Is a reliable market if you give it good content, and is less crowded than the PS3 market where a load of expensive core games bomb in the competition where only big advertised games succeed.

CoD3 was too early in PS3 lifecycle - and too bad a port - to serve as a comparison point IMHO.

The bottom line is certain titles are going to sell better on Wii than PS3/360 and vice versa.  The real issue as I see it, and I see some other interesting points from others looking at the same point, is current market perception and the fact that so many see things in black and white - i.e. if CoD cannot sell nearly as much on Wii as PS3/360 (and trust me, CoD3 aside as an outlier, it's pretty clear that as things stand a CoD title on Wii is going to sell much less than on PS3/360) then it is a failure.

This isn't the case at all.  What we need is developers and the market just to be realistic, and see that sales of say 1.5 million for a CoD game on Wii is great, and there is no reason to expect it to sell 6 million or more.

Market perception is a difficult one though - all the Wii marketing I see via Nintendo is light, airy and family focused.  The image of the console has been built up away from titles like CoD and Silent Hill, which may be placing a glass ceiling on the sales of certain genres.

All my posts agree such titles can be profitable on the Wii, and all my posts point out that the upper limit is just much lower for certain titles and genres on Wii right now vs PS3/360 - and in fact that upper limit reverses for other titles and genres: for example I'm not sure Wii Fit would have sold that much if released instead at a 360 at the same point in time.

With the big split between HD consoles and Wii this gen I'm not myself convinced the Wii audience is that diverse in purchasing habits.  Certain Nintendo franchises sell really well, certain motion control titles and general titles sell well, but plenty of diverse and pretty well reviewed titles don't.  BTW again I think both the 360 and PS3 suffer from a similar issue, just spread across different genres.

Unlike with PS2 and PS1 generation there really isn't one console way ahead this generation in terms of covering all the demographic bases.  The PS3/360 have really split the market with Wii in US/Others with only really Japan looking fairly clear cut in terms of Wii being well ahead of PS3 and 360 being more or less irrelevant (sorry 360 fans, but in that market it is) and this, coupled with the big differences in HW and control schemes, is clearly giving third party developers a real issue with what they develop, for which console, and tailored to which control methods.

 



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