I think it's safe to say that Mario is far more popular now than he was when the first Galaxy launched in 2007. The Mario Kart Wii phenomenon has introduced millions of new people to the series and NSMB Wii is looking like an even bigger success.

So do you think this will carry over to the next big Mario game (SMG 2)? I don't expect it to be quite as huge as those games (no multiplayer), but I think it has a good chance to top Mario 64.

Discuss!

how did the first one do?

I believe Galaxy 2 may reach 12-15M LTD.
Mario awareness for "Casual Gamers" and the increased Install Base should definitely help the game sell very well.

ya it will sell huge, 10 million at least

8.3 million

Yes, you're right. This title will definitely benefit of the success of Mario Kart and New Super Mario Bros Wii (2 great games I enjoyed playing in multi)

I expect at least 12 million if the timing of the release is good. The userbase grown a lot too.

This is what I mean. Out of the 12 million people who bought Mario Kart Wii but NOT Galaxy 1 you'd have to imagine that some of them will walk into the store one day and say "Ooh, a new Mario game is out!".

I don't think so. Mainly because it wont do all that well in Japan.

That, and it will be competing with NSMB Wii.

The gameplay isn't really straightforward as the other two games, especially since this is explicitly developed for the gameplay ideas they team had to leave out. This is mainly for those that like to play for hours to try all those out, not for people who just want some gaming to kill time.

In short, it's for intensive gamers, not for the mainstream.

prob will do at least a lil better

no. First off, Galaxy is only selling ~33k WW with Mario Kart and NSMB already out the door and is currently around 8.3m. If those two games were really going to boost a 3D platformer's performance I would expect better legs (say 70k during the holidays and in the top 25 Wii games rather than barely breaking the top 50)

To beat Mario 64, it also has to beat Galaxy 1 by ~3.6m units which I don't think will happen. Honestly I expect Galaxy 2 will probably tie Galaxy 1. Mario may have gained in popularity, but Galaxy also launched as the main 3D Mario for the system. Just like most other games, the sequels on the same system typically sell worse. This is most likely as some players already got their fill of that kind of game and have limited budgets and number of games they buy. If the attach ratio is 8 games, do people really want 1/4 of their games being Mario 3D platformers? I feel these factors will offset and end in a tie for sales.

EDIT: as a note, Galaxy 1 could beat Mario 64 sales, but it would have to stay on the market for at least another 4 years unless sales sudenly jumped and sustained higher sales. So, stating that Galaxy 2 won't beat Mario 64 is based on the next generation of systems coming out soon enough that it can't sustain good sales for another 6 years.