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Forums - Sales - Analyst: FF13 might outsell FF12

RVDondaPC on 20 December 2009
TheSource said:

Of course they sell less, look at the bases through three full years. PS2 had 20 games top a million in Japan on a 23 million base, or roughly one game per million in base and most of that came by the end of 2003, full year three which is wher PS3 is now. PS3 has a four million base in Japan and through the Final Fantasy XIII launch had no titles top one million. PS3 is more akin to GameCube/Saturn which had a million-seller for every few million users added. The N64 in contrast had 12 titles top a million in Japan on a ~5.4m base. PS3 looks much closer to the Saturn/GC pattern though. Also, you can't compare PS2 sequels to franchises just getting started on PS3 because the PS2 sequels had a huge base. Against the original PS2 title in the franchise, when the PS3 base was closest to PS2 base the titles are far lower because PS3 hw and thus sw doesn't perform as well as PS2 in Japan.

MGS4 is down 15% from MGS2

Devil May Cry 4 is down 40%+ from DMC 1 on PS2

RE5 is down from RE3 by a third

GTA is down 40% from GTAIII to GTAIV

Obviously the 20 PS2 games to hit a million, save for FFXIII are all down at least 30% as well since they haven't hit a million on PS3. But again, you'd have to tease out the originals to compare the PS2 base at a comparable size to the PS3 base

Talk about cherry picking...



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jarrod on 20 December 2009
RVDondaPC said:
TheSource said:

Of course they sell less, look at the bases through three full years. PS2 had 20 games top a million in Japan on a 23 million base, or roughly one game per million in base and most of that came by the end of 2003, full year three which is wher PS3 is now. PS3 has a four million base in Japan and through the Final Fantasy XIII launch had no titles top one million. PS3 is more akin to GameCube/Saturn which had a million-seller for every few million users added. The N64 in contrast had 12 titles top a million in Japan on a ~5.4m base. PS3 looks much closer to the Saturn/GC pattern though. Also, you can't compare PS2 sequels to franchises just getting started on PS3 because the PS2 sequels had a huge base. Against the original PS2 title in the franchise, when the PS3 base was closest to PS2 base the titles are far lower because PS3 hw and thus sw doesn't perform as well as PS2 in Japan.

MGS4 is down 15% from MGS2

Devil May Cry 4 is down 40%+ from DMC 1 on PS2

RE5 is down from RE3 by a third

GTA is down 40% from GTAIII to GTAIV

Obviously the 20 PS2 games to hit a million, save for FFXIII are all down at least 30% as well since they haven't hit a million on PS3. But again, you'd have to tease out the originals to compare the PS2 base at a comparable size to the PS3 base

Talk about cherry picking...

Uh, TheSource didn't even pick those series for comparison?



Edouble24 on 20 December 2009

JRPGs are losing popularity? What exactly is that based on? I think XIII can reach 8 million across both consoles without any international rereleases. PS2 may have had a huge userbase but 360 has a different userbase that Final Fantasy couldn't sell to before.



jarrod on 20 December 2009
TheSource said:

PS3 has a four million base in Japan and through the Final Fantasy XIII launch had no titles top one million. PS3 is more akin to GameCube/Saturn which had a million-seller for every few million users added. The N64 in contrast had 12 titles top a million in Japan on a ~5.4m base. PS3 looks much closer to the Saturn/GC pattern though. 

Never thought about it, but it's really true.  (Famitsu) million sellers for 2nd/3rd place platforms in Japan...

Sega Saturn

  1. Virtua Fighter 2 (Sega)  1,417,034

Nintendo 64

  1. Mario Kart 64 (Nintendo) 1,711,661
  2. Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) 1,639,921
  3. Super Smash Bros. (Nintendo) 1,632,055
  4. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarima of Time (Nintendo) 1,147,068
  5. Pocket Monsters Stadium (Nintendo) 1,094,763

GameCube

  1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo) 1,349,418

PSP

  1. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) 2,453,132
  2. Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) 1,723,187
  3. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite The BEST (Capcom) 1,093,586

PlayStation 3

  1. Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) 1,000,000+

 

 

...actually, overall PS3 software sales look a lot like GameCube in Japan.



Alic0004 on 20 December 2009

Yeah, I didn't mean to suggest that I think FFXIII will outsell FFX worldwide. I was trying to explain that when people say XIII will outsell all previous Final Fantasy games, they're always talking about worldwide, not in Japan.



 

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Alic0004 on 20 December 2009

^^ Of course, that's the PS3's pattern so far. If it can get another two games to break a million in the next few years, it will be pretty far from Gamecube and Saturn. Maybe its increased sales will lead to even more than that.


I certainly don't know what those other games will be, though. Aside from Versus, what else does the PS3 have in the pipeline for Japan?  I have no idea what could manage those kinds of sales.



 

Edouble24 on 20 December 2009

Gran Turismo could possibly do it.



Alic0004 on 20 December 2009

Oh, I always forget that. Having never really played a GT game until recently.



 

SmokedHostage on 20 December 2009
jarrod said:
TheSource said:

PS3 has a four million base in Japan and through the Final Fantasy XIII launch had no titles top one million. PS3 is more akin to GameCube/Saturn which had a million-seller for every few million users added. The N64 in contrast had 12 titles top a million in Japan on a ~5.4m base. PS3 looks much closer to the Saturn/GC pattern though. 

Never thought about it, but it's really true.  (Famitsu) million sellers for 2nd/3rd place platforms in Japan...

Sega Saturn

  1. Virtua Fighter 2 (Sega)  1,417,034

Nintendo 64

  1. Mario Kart 64 (Nintendo) 1,711,661
  2. Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) 1,639,921
  3. Super Smash Bros. (Nintendo) 1,632,055
  4. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarima of Time (Nintendo) 1,147,068
  5. Pocket Monsters Stadium (Nintendo) 1,094,763

GameCube

  1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo) 1,349,418

PSP

  1. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) 2,453,132
  2. Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) 1,723,187
  3. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite The BEST (Capcom) 1,093,586

PlayStation 3

  1. Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) 1,000,000+

 

 

...actually, overall PS3 software sales look a lot like GameCube in Japan.

Brawl is on the Gamecube?



Pixel Art can be fun.

jarrod on 20 December 2009
Alic0004 said:
^^ Of course, that's the PS3's pattern so far. If it can get another two games to break a million in the next few years, it will be pretty far from Gamecube and Saturn. Maybe its increased sales will lead to even more than that.


I certainly don't know what those other games will be, though. Aside from Versus, what else does the PS3 have in the pipeline for Japan?

I think GT5 would be it's best bet, but even that's not a sure bet for a million.  Versus might squeak by too imo, but Crisis Core sort of makes me think it won't.

Meanwhile, if we look at leading platforms...

 

PlayStation

  1. Dragon Warrior VII (Enix) 3,893,293
  2. Final Fantasy VIII (Square) 3,501,588
  3. Final Fantasy VII (Square) 3,277,776
  4. Final Fantasy IX (Square) 2,707,301
  5. Gran Turismo (SCEI) 2,186,375
  6. Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) 2,154,975
  7. Hot Shots Golf (SCEI) 1,777,895
  8. Derby Stallion (ASCII) 1,737,819
  9. Gran Turismo 2 (SCEI) 1,460,687
  10. Resident Evil 3: Nemesis (Capcom) 1,383,282
  11. Final Fantasy Tactics (Square) 1,270,806
  12. Resident Evil (Capcom) 1,194,779
  13. Tekken 3 (Namco) 1,186,119
  14. Dragon Quest IV: Michibareshi Monotachi (Enix) 1,173,671
  15. Chocobo no Fushigino Dungeon (Square) 1,165,798
  16. SaGa Frontier (Square) 1,088,414
  17. Tekken 2 (Namco) 1,088,069
  18. Dance Dance Revolution (Konami) 1,023,821

PlayStation 2

  1. Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (Square Enix) 3,555,469
  2. Final Fantasy X (Square) 2,325,215
  3. Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) 2,322,541
  4. Final Fantasy X-2 (Square) 1,960,937
  5. Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome (Square Enix) 1,614,806
  6. Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec (SCEI) 1,438,743
  7. Dynasty Warriors 4 (Koei) 1,197,349
  8. Kingdom Hearts II (Square Enix) 1,129,196
  9. Winning Eleven 6 International (Konami) 1,116,786
  10. World Soccer Winnng Eleven 7 (Konami) 1,100,238
  11. Hot Shots Golf Fore! (SCEI) 1,083,079 
  12. Gran Turismo 4 (SCEI) 1,066,749 
  13. World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 International (Konami) 1,059,585
  14. Winning Eleven: Pro Evolution Soccer 2007 (Konami) 1,050,319
  15. Dynasty Warriors 3 (Koei) 1,042,819
  16. Samurai Warriors (Koei) 1,024,338
  17. Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny (Capcom) 1,003,874

Game Boy Advance

  1. Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (The Pokemon Company) 5,337,045
  2. Pokemon Fire Red / Leaf Green (The Pokemon Company) 2,883,670
  3. Pokemon Emerald (The Pokemon Company) 1,995,945
  4. Classic NES Series: Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) 1,280,158

Nintendo DS

  1. Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (The Pokemon Company) 5,709,235
  2. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) 5,586,920
  3. Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) 5,073,967
  4. Brain-Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day (Nintendo) 5,000,391
  5. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) 4,046,945
  6. Brain-Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day (Nintendo) 3,776,263
  7. Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) 3,508,371
  8. Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (The Pokemon Company) 3,122,221+
  9. Pokemon Platinum (The Pokemon Company) 2,477,710
  10. English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills (Nintendo) 2,163,328
  11. Nintendogs (Nintendo) 1,909,025
  12. Mario Party DS (Nintendo) 1,889,851
  13. Rhythm Heaven (Nintendo) 1,791,593
  14. Friend Connection (Nintendo) 1,852,186+
  15. Kanshuu Nippon Joushikiryouku Kentei Kyoukai: Imasara Hit ni wa Kikenai Otona no Joushikiryoku Training DS (Nintendo) 1,569,882
  16. Big Brain Academy (Nintendo) 1,549,913
  17. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time / Darkness (The Pokemon Company) 1,506,952
  18. Dragon Quest Monsters JOKER (Square Enix) 1,467,179
  19. Tetris DS (Nintendo) 1,317,413
  20. Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (Square Enix) 1,214,610
  21. Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride (Square Enix) 1,189,064
  22. WarioWare Touched! (Nintendo) 1,136,255
  23. Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo) 1,133,678
  24. Kirby Super Star Ultra (Nintendo) 1,127,320
  25. Kirby Squeak Squad (Nintendo) 1,116,424
  26. Tamagotchi Connection: Corner Shop (Bandai) 1,110,046
  27. Oshare Majo Love & Berry: DS Collection (Sega) 1,055,812
  28. Final Fantasy III (Square Enix) 1,008,230
  29. Yoshi's Island DS (Nintendo) 1,001,014

Wii

  1. Wii Sports (Nintendo) 3,536,288
  2. Wii Fit (Nintendo) 3,528,473
  3. Wii Play (Nintendo) 2,697,416
  4. Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) 2,369,725
  5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo) 1,812,706
  6. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) 1,401,734+
  7. Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) 1,376,913
  8. Mario Party 8 (Nintendo) 1,354,885
  9. Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo) 1,166,901
  10. Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) 1,059,431+