my vote is for nintendo.

And i put sega on as a joke choice.

I think Nintendo will make the first move.

Every Cell Phone is a console

I think definitely Microsoft. Sony can't afford it, they're still waiting to make profit on the ps3. No, I think they will be last to bring out their next console. As for nintendo, they are the winner this gen and they will want it to last as long as possible. Microsoft was first this gen by a year and their sales are starting to go down. It also depends on what natal will do. It may even be part of their next system launch.

No, no one will be releasing a console in 2010. I think it'll start in 2011 at the earliest and 2012 at the latest. I see what you're saying that there is an advantage in releasing a console first, but it doesn't mean they will win the gen, which this gen has proved. I think it would be extrememly stupid for sony to release a system first. The next set of systems will start releasing soon after sony starts to make a profit on ps3. Are they gonna release a new system to start in the hole again?

Possible Microsoft and maybe Nintendo, I think Sony may be 2nd or last.

Most likely Microsoft. Nintendo and Sony seem dead set on not launching their next consoles anytime soon at all.

microsoft, its the way they can steal someshare.

before nintendo and sony drops

Chances are:

90% MS
8% Ninny
2% Sony

MS has tons of cash and have been profitable this gen, their system is the eldest, they want to start shedding the image of being unreliable, they will want to compete with Nintendo next gen, they will want to take advantage of Natal before the others start copying, they will want to woo devs who want a more powerful system.

Ninny on the other hand has nothing to prove and they are making a killing. Their sales might be slowing down but Ninny has historically been very calm and composed as long as they are profitable and I dont think they will do anything to hurt their current sales like announcing a new console. They will probably ride out this gen just as long as possible just like the PS2 did.

Sony is in severe pain financially. Most of their divisions are in the red and they are scrambling to find income evident by their price cuts for market share. Given their condition, they will be under tremendous pressure to make money even that means forgoing future market share in the PS3 similar to what happened to Ninny last 2 gens.

sega ftw