Who will make a new consoule first?

[marc]

Chances are:

90% MS
8% Ninny
2% Sony

MS has tons of cash and have been profitable this gen, their system is the eldest, they want to start shedding the image of being unreliable, they will want to compete with Nintendo next gen, they will want to take advantage of Natal before the others start copying, they will want to woo devs who want a more powerful system.

Ninny on the other hand has nothing to prove and they are making a killing. Their sales might be slowing down but Ninny has historically been very calm and composed as long as they are profitable and I dont think they will do anything to hurt their current sales like announcing a new console. They will probably ride out this gen just as long as possible just like the PS2 did.

Sony is in severe pain financially. Most of their divisions are in the red and they are scrambling to find income evident by their price cuts for market share. Given their condition, they will be under tremendous pressure to make money even that means forgoing future market share in the PS3 similar to what happened to Ninny last 2 gens.