Well why could it not? Its no given as of now of course, but the potential is there. If PS3/PSP/Xbox 360 can more than double their sales with games temporarily then the Wii could do the same, dont you think? Though the question remains, if they can ever produce enough consoles to make use of such a momentum, seeing that the DS seems still supply-constrained.

In my mind theres only enough room in each regions market for one of the HD consoles to take a large amount of marketshare, I don't think there is enough demand for both the PS3 and 360 to move big numbers in both the US and Europe. In this scenaro the 360 takes most of the "HD" console market in the US with the PS3 lagging far behind. The same goes for Japan and Europe, but put PS3 in place of 360. Now, provided the Wii sells more than the dominate HD console in every region, and it's major lead in Japan, then it could very well sell more than both the 360 and PS3 combined. Just so this is clear, here's a little example; Europe 2010 - Wii 20mil - PS3 15mil - 360 6mil Add these numbers up and the combined PS3/360 sales are 1 million above the Wii, but then take into account Japan Japan 2010 - Wii 15mil - PS3 5mil - 360 1.5mil Add these up and the Wii beats them combined by 9.5 million, which more than makes up for the 1 million deficit in Europe. (Disclaimer, these numbers are pulled out of my ass for illustrative purposes only and in no way is meant to be a serious prediction)

now now take it easy here. handhelds and consols is two different markets...

Thanks for pointing that out robjoh... I WANNA BET THAT THE WII WILL NOT SELL MORE THAN THE PS360 COMBINED BY 2009! Here are the stakes.. if I lose, I go out and buy a Wii, if you lose.. you all buy a PS3 (Trust me, you'll thank me for that). By "all" I mean those who join the bet.

Somehow I don't see... 1) Nintendo going bust, 2) The Wii disappearing in a puff of smoke/Blowing up at 1 year old, 3) The world coming to an end soon. 4) Will you be here in 2009 to cash in? *Places bet on all systems

I'd be willing to bet there are fewer graphics whores than gameplay whores. The only video game battle won by the console with the best graphics was the SNES, and that was the smallest victory ever. (better graphics systems second) Atari vs Intellivision = Atari, NES vs. Master System = NES, PS vs N64 = PS, PS2 vs Xbox/GC = PS2, Gameboy vs Game Gear = Gameboy, DS vs PSP = DS. I had the same attitude when the Playstation was beating the N64. PS games looked terrible next to N64 ones and I thought gamers were stupid for playing such an inferior product, but the PS still beat the N64. Cool to see the shoe is finally on the other foot . You are right though, the PS3 is the system for graphics whores, the Wii is for everyone else, and the everyone else market is much larger than the graphics whore market. I don't know how many killer aps really come along for any system but the Wii does have a strong lineup over the next year. Not just from Nintendo for a change. The Wii is a little gimmicky at the moment since no AAA Nintendo title is out yet and 3rd party people are still learning the ropes of motion controls. The DS had even worse problems with its dual screen touch pad set up initially and we see how that turned out. The best selling, and I'd say funnest, games out there right now are on a system that outputs in 256 x 192. Not even close to 480p much less 1080 . I read through Hastings comments and they are what one would expect from someone whose livelihood depends on the PS3 dong well. He isn't some unbiased dev at EA or Ubisoft (even they wouldn't be unbiased just less biased) but even so some of his comments can be taken at face value and have been shot down elsewhere on this thread. For example, people aren't buying the Cell anymore than people bought an EE or RSP, they are buying video game systems. Most of the market (I'd wager over 80% maybe over 90%) has no clue what Cell is. Developers mostly care about install base and until the PS3 shows any potential of moving out of 3rd place in the real world and not just in the fevered imaginations of Sony fanboys resources will continue their drift over to the Wii and 360 (despite the lack of Cell).

Well that's an indication of the odds, bet on Wii and lose $600, bet on PS3 and lose $250. I'd say that sounds about right, Wii has a 3:1 chance of topping the PS3. I'd say they are greater since even a Sony fanboy admits that's what they are but I digress. I don't know how paying $600 for a system that plays the smae games as a $400 system is a benefit. It has blu-ray but I don't want it, I'll buy a br player if it wins the format war and when its under $100. At any rate, given the sales of each system if you want to play something other tha Gran Turismo or God of War you're going to have to buy a Wii eventually.

One thing to consider is that we really don't know how the mainstream gaming market will respond to any of these products over the next year or two; personally I suspect I know what will happen with the expensive PS3 and XBox 360 but I really don't know what will happen with the Wii. The majority of gamers do not hang out online, do not know how well systems are selling, don't pay close attention to gaming news and really don't know about most of the features of the systems that are available. Most gamers buy their systems when a game (or two) they're interested in comes out for the system and it is at a price they can afford; they find out about the game through advertizing, the mainstream press, and (most importantly) through their friends that are gamers. The Wii's advantage is that (by mid 2008) will be affordable for most gamers, and the larger userbase will have ensured that most gamers will have had an opportunity to try it; the disadvantage is the lower system performance may make it harder to advertize in particular if companies start producing ads on Telivision in HD.

Hey, now! That's not much of a bet! If I lose, I've got to spend twice as much as you! I think if you lose, you've got to buy TWO Wiis. Lets just say Wii sales are 1 million a month right now... Putting it at 6 million through March, and 13 million through October... If sales go through a normal x2 for November, x4 for December trend... That puts Wii at 19 million at the end of the year. Whether Nintendo can produce that many is a seperate issue, and the one thing that could bite me in the ass... I think Nintendo can follow that up with 20 million a year, and be at 60 million by the end of 2009. If sales don't slow down, that's where Wii will be at the end of 2009. Though of course, Wii is doing 1 million a month while supply constrained right now, and Nintendo is increasing production. And if Wii-branded games show recokulous sustained sales like Touch Generations games have (and like they are in Japan already)... Then Wii should actually continue to accelerate... X360 is only starting to break past XBox1 sales. If it accelerates well past that rate this year, it will be well beyond XBox's 24.5 million total by the end of 2009. Let's say, 33-35 million. Wii is already trending better than 2:1 over PS3, and that's only likely to expand. So yeah, I think Wii can beat 360 + PS3 by the end of 2009. Now, if (when?) FF and MGS go to 360, it's sales will be much, much higher, and PS3s much, much lower, but Wii will still have 50% of the market. I could easily be wrong, but I somehow doubt both of us will be here then.

lets stick with consoles, shall we? actually there are talks for a wii with DVD campadability, but thats all. it will either be the same price or only a small increase, still under 300 dollars.