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Forums - Sales - My 2010 Projections For PS360 Total HW Sold...Gap May Be Reduced Massively!

psrock on 10 December 2009
Carl2291 said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.

I've also predicted that, just not next year...

If you notice, Sony theselves have never called it the "PS3 Slim". And lets face it, it's not exactly that slim right now

MS is going to droptheir price very early next year, and if you look at jan through Sept , numbers are usually close to each other, yes ps3 will be ahead but it wont be by much maybe 900k to a million, but it's the fall when these two usually beats up each other. With Natal coming on strong, Halo reach, Sony will need an answer.



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jarrod on 10 December 2009
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.

Likewise, I've heard this song before and yet Sony still ate an estimated $100 loss on their brand new 45nm PS3 slim.  The slim/drop combo this year was done because Sony was in a position where they HAD to do something of that scale.  Next year, they won't be the same position...



psrock on 10 December 2009
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.

Likewise, I've heard this song before and yet Sony still ate an estimated $100 loss on their brand new 45nm PS3 slim.  The slim/drop combo this year was done because Sony was in a position where they HAD to do something of that scale.  Next year, they won't be the same position...

i am giving you the benefit of doubt, please show me where Sony is losing $100 on each PS3 Slim?



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
jarrod on 10 December 2009
Vetteman94 said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

One thing alot of people seem to be confusing is, when they say profitability 2010,  they mean the entire PS division,  which includes PS2, PSP and software sales for all 3 consoles.    And they will easily reach that.  

PS2's fallen off and PSP's a dubious success at best (decent(ish) hardware sales, software sales suck, GO's an utter flop).  They've never been able to pull up PS3 before, they're not going to much difference in the future.  If we get a $199 PS3 next year, that generational deficit's easily going to pass $6B.



binary solo on 10 December 2009

The $199 buy and install your own HDD PS3?

Really, who wants a paltry 120Gig HDD when you can shove your own 500Gig HDD into the unit? And still only pay a total of $299 in the end (or less if it's a used 500Gig HDD).

I've got a wothless 80Gig HDD sitting around at home. Seriously, who, other than someone who still has their original 20 or 40 Gig HDD in earlier PS3 models, is going to be interested in having an 80Gig laptop HDD? I'd probably have a hard time giving it away, and if the peron didn't live locally I'd probably have to pay for the postage. You could say that a buy and install your own HDD PS3 is actually more environmentally friendly, because it will help reduce the amount of e-waste in the world.



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loy310 on 10 December 2009

360 - 10 million.
Natal will help breath life back into the 360. Price cut is definite for fall  2010, that will help loads, and the must have Exclusive software line up.

PS3 - 15 million.
Japan and EU will be huge for Sony next year due to GT5 and FF13, this is where Sony will really pull away from the 360 in those regions, this is also where Sony will sell most of their PS3's for 2010. The $299 price tag, the RPG lineup, and GOW3 will keep the PS3 competitive in America well into next year.
The motion controller should help a bit, I don't see it or Natal failing because lets face it, motion controllers are here to stay a few buyers will no doubt fall for both MS and Sony's motion controllers. Finally BluRay, it continues to be in demand it will be bigger next year for EU and NA



wholikeswood on 10 December 2009

BHR-3, I think your thread has some merit.

If I can point out just one thing - you say next year 360 will be down YOY in terms of Jan-Sep since it won't be carrying the momentum like it was Jan-Sep 2009. However, it wasn't carrying the momentum in Jan-Sep 2008 either, yet Jan-Sep 2009 only outsold Jan-Sep2008 by ~250k units.

In other words, 360 has shown itself to be capable of selling 4.5mil units from Jan-Sep both when it has the momentum and when it does not.

Otherwise, this is yet another ambitious prediction, and I hope you're right!



jarrod on 10 December 2009
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.

Likewise, I've heard this song before and yet Sony still ate an estimated $100 loss on their brand new 45nm PS3 slim.  The slim/drop combo this year was done because Sony was in a position where they HAD to do something of that scale.  Next year, they won't be the same position...

i am giving you the benefit of doubt, please show me where Sony is losing $100 on each PS3 Slim?

Okay.



jarrod on 10 December 2009
binary solo said:
The $199 buy and install your own HDD PS3?

Really, who wants a paltry 120Gig HDD when you can shove your own 500Gig HDD into the unit? And still only pay a total of $299 in the end (or less if it's a used 500Gig HDD).

I've got a wothless 80Gig HDD sitting around at home. Seriously, who, other than someone who still has their original 20 or 40 Gig HDD in earlier PS3 models, is going to be interested in having an 80Gig laptop HDD? I'd probably have a hard time giving it away, and if the peron didn't live locally I'd probably have to pay for the postage. You could say that a buy and install your own HDD PS3 is actually more environmentally friendly, because it will help reduce the amount of e-waste in the world.

HDD costs are a pittance for Sony, they'll make too much more on a higher-price-point+HDD to do away with it like Microsoft with the Arcade.  It's also one of their competitive advantages in the developer arena to espouse every PS3 being HDD-backed.



psrock on 10 December 2009
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
I think people have learned their lessons though.

Only thing, MS is not going to let their lead vanish so easily, I expect a big price war next year, but the scariest thing for the 360 is very simple :

$199 PS3

That would also be the scariest thing to SCE's bottom line.  With all the "profitability in 2010" talk we're hearing, I doubt we'll see another $100 loss leading drop next year... maybe $50, and that's even a big maybe.  Expect more value-added moves next fall instead (HDD upgrades, software bundles, Swand bundle, etc).  I think we'll see the same for Nintendo (NSMBundle?), and maybe even Microsoft (ie: Arcade phased out, $199 Elite).

I have heard this song before, but each year the ps3 cost less to make and i expect an even cheaper version late next year. $299 is still quite expensive for 4 year old console.

Yes, I am predicted an even slimmer version late next year with 250 gb for $200 dollars.

Likewise, I've heard this song before and yet Sony still ate an estimated $100 loss on their brand new 45nm PS3 slim.  The slim/drop combo this year was done because Sony was in a position where they HAD to do something of that scale.  Next year, they won't be the same position...

i am giving you the benefit of doubt, please show me where Sony is losing $100 on each PS3 Slim?

Okay.

Sony Incurring $100 Loss on PS3 -- Analyst

Do another search, this time with proof.



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)