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BHR-3, I think your thread has some merit.

If I can point out just one thing - you say next year 360 will be down YOY in terms of Jan-Sep since it won't be carrying the momentum like it was Jan-Sep 2009. However, it wasn't carrying the momentum in Jan-Sep 2008 either, yet Jan-Sep 2009 only outsold Jan-Sep2008 by ~250k units.

In other words, 360 has shown itself to be capable of selling 4.5mil units from Jan-Sep both when it has the momentum and when it does not.

Otherwise, this is yet another ambitious prediction, and I hope you're right!